Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I think it's unlikely that any breakup would resemble the relatively orderly dissolution of the Soviet Union into neat little self-governing units. Right now all of the federal units are run by Governors who were hand-picked by Putin. So the first thing is that they would be toppled leading to local power vacuums.

I think ultimately it would be chaotic and messy and could end up looking something like Libya or Sudan with high ranking officers in the Russian Army or PMCs creating their own armies to fight each other for territory and resources (we're effectively seeing a taste of this already with the likes of Prigozhyn and Kadyrov). And that's not even mentioning the elephant in the room - the nuclear arsenal all over the country.

A 'disaster'?

Strong words from someone with a point to prove.

Each state or russian republic is set up in such a way as to bind it to russia as much as possible , wether its through borders designed to cut through ethnic groups or dependant on their neighbours and the federal state for energy or export infrastructure,

So while its possible to split ,it would probably need groups of several republics to work together to be able to function without moscow ..

Im not sure about the nukes , theyre expensive to maintain - and made to be difficult to use without the codes -which is why a large ,technically advanced ,but broke country like ukraine got rid of theirs.

Also where are the nukes kept ? I assume most of them are on "safe " russian soil... Ie. Surrounded by ethnic russian populations ..

Unfortunately it's always going to happen,as I previously said that led to posters having complete meltdowns 😂😂😂,

You can't move columns of armor and other vehicles across open ground without air and artillery cover and not expect to take heavy artillery barrages from the Russians ,the same vehicles are prone to drones and loitering munitions as they don't have active air defenses, just as we already seen in the various failed Russian offensives recently

We will see more vehicles losses as the counter offensive begins to increase operations

But the biggest problem when your going to be soley reliant on western IFVs and tanks to fight to the Russian border you can ill afford to lose them in numbers that could slow down any offensive,

It's a balancing act

Russia has another option. It can go home and progress and develop the RF. It is big enough and with a lot of key resources to be’getting on with life ‘ for its population and put ALL OF its energy into same. And let it get on with whatever way it wants to be ruled

Ru/Putin is paranoid about being attacked from outside/ taken over/ forced regime change from outsideRF,etc. IMO this cannot be further from the truth. . Why. It was the USSR and the USSR only that broke up , circa 1990 into the currentRF and thirteen other ‘independant ‘ states. It was the USSR and the USSR only who handed over , permanently, Crimea to UKr before that.

The USSR or the RF or any of the ex USSR states have NEVER been attacked by any other state with a view to anexing any of them or part of them. This is not the case within them as some are battling over land / power

Three more dams blown up.

Putin's fascination with Hitler continues.

Taking a leaf out of the Nazi book from Holland in 1944.

Topography is not as flat in Ukraine as Holland though I believe. It's only buying the Russians a short time. And adding to their list of sh1t housery.

. .

It was more an observation of unfortunate German geography rather than its history and society. If you want to be a country especially a large one on the North European plain you have to be militaristic. There is no other option. And it still holds true today unfortunately.

Anton thinks there's trouble in paradise.

Anton is a mixed bag though, he's wrong as often as he is right.

This is well known, but the problem is that Putin needs a situation like that to justify his very existence as the "Saviour and Protector" of Russia. And so the myth about a Russia being constantly under attack has to be perpetuated. And of course, it does not stop him from attacking whoever he wants, or for what ever reason. It will all come under the banner one way or another as protection for Mother Russia.

I would not blame them either, unless and until they get cast iron Guarantees from the Russians, and Russians do not have a good history of guaranteeing anything. It would not be the first time in this war that they attacked people even under an arranged flag of truce.

I think it will be a bit longer than a few weeks as Russia has had time to dig in. Still I expect Russia to be giving up/ retreating back to their own border by late summer as another good will gesture. I don't think we will see a civil war in Russia , perhaps some type of coup against Putin. This is what the US might encourage covertly. The last thing they or the world will want to risk is a Libyan style castatrophe in a nuclear armed state.

In the past that was definately the case but I wonder if that is still firmly the case. ? My reasoning for saying this as follows :-

(1) the internet/mobile phones have increased peoples knowledge as to what is really happening and see that there are more Bennie/ better systems of governance out there

( 2) there is increasing contact/ networking, etc,as the population becomes more educated and may come to the conclusion that Ru does not need to be ina constant skirmish/war

(3) because of advances in technology what was not possible to do ‘last year’ may be possible to do this year. Eg do things by remote controll

(4) the more the population find out what is really happening out there- and especially the carry on of Ru in UKr , the numbers of Russiansoldiers being killed ,maimed, KIA ,etc the more they will resist mobilisation so Putin might not be able to round up enough to defend an entity that has not been attacked since 1944