I think it will be a bit longer than a few weeks as Russia has had time to dig in. Still I expect Russia to be giving up/ retreating back to their own border by late summer as another good will gesture. I don't think we will see a civil war in Russia , perhaps some type of coup against Putin. This is what the US might encourage covertly. The last thing they or the world will want to risk is a Libyan style castatrophe in a nuclear armed state.
A member of one brigade taking part in the offensive in the southeast described “continuous heavy fighting.”
“It is very difficult on the field,” he said Thursday morning. “Our artillery and aviation are working, but the Russians’ are working, as well. It is difficult for us and for them. The armed forces are advancing. But not as fast as we wanted.”
Sounds about right based on what we've seen so far.
I would not blame them either, unless and until they get cast iron Guarantees from the Russians, and Russians do not have a good history of guaranteeing anything. It would not be the first time in this war that they attacked people even under an arranged flag of truce.
Attacking civilian infrastructure was already terrorism but this is somehow even worse because the water has already destroyed any potential targets. All they are doing is hardening the resolve of Ukrainians. It's utterly counter-productive as a tactic.
This is well known, but the problem is that Putin needs a situation like that to justify his very existence as the "Saviour and Protector" of Russia. And so the myth about a Russia being constantly under attack has to be perpetuated. And of course, it does not stop him from attacking whoever he wants, or for what ever reason. It will all come under the banner one way or another as protection for Mother Russia.
✔️East
Our troops are active in the Bakhmut direction. Fighting continues.
In some places, the enemy tries to go on the offensive, but without success.
In the Kupyansk, Shakhtarsk directions - the enemy carries out airstrikes and shelling.
On the Avdiyiv and Lyman directions, the enemy made attempts to advance, but without success.
Fighting continues on Marinsky. Our defenders repelled numerous enemy attacks in the area of the city of Maryinka, inflicting significant losses on him.
✔️ South
Battles continue for Velika Novosilka in the Novopalivsk direction.
In the Zaporozhye direction in the Orichova area, the enemy is actively on the defensive.
First time I've seen someone in the Ukrainian government acknowledge the offensive operation that's going on in the south.
Anton thinks there's trouble in paradise.
Anton is a mixed bag though, he's wrong as often as he is right.
My God, but this was something else!!! Even for Putins propaganda factory!!!.. I was half expecting the sleeves to be rolled up. Might have happened too only the referee stepped in. They're losing the plot, and not too slowly either.
It was more an observation of unfortunate German geography rather than its history and society. If you want to be a country especially a large one on the North European plain you have to be militaristic. There is no other option. And it still holds true today unfortunately.
Lots of social media posts now claiming moskovytes continue to target flooded areas as civilians are being evacuated. Every russian with a link to their military and military industry should be banned from entering the civilised world in future. Hoping the Ukrainians have good luck hunting down these excuses for human beings.
. .
Sh ithouses.
Cowardly stuff but i expect it to get a lot dirtier as they retreat to their border over the next few weeks.
Three more dams blown up.
Putin's fascination with Hitler continues.
Taking a leaf out of the Nazi book from Holland in 1944.
Topography is not as flat in Ukraine as Holland though I believe. It's only buying the Russians a short time. And adding to their list of sh1t housery.
More clear evidence from a Russian drone of Leopard Tanks on the attack below.
Russia has another option. It can go home and progress and develop the RF. It is big enough and with a lot of key resources to be’getting on with life ‘ for its population and put ALL OF its energy into same. And let it get on with whatever way it wants to be ruled
Ru/Putin is paranoid about being attacked from outside/ taken over/ forced regime change from outsideRF,etc. IMO this cannot be further from the truth. . Why. It was the USSR and the USSR only that broke up , circa 1990 into the currentRF and thirteen other ‘independant ‘ states. It was the USSR and the USSR only who handed over , permanently, Crimea to UKr before that.
The USSR or the RF or any of the ex USSR states have NEVER been attacked by any other state with a view to anexing any of them or part of them. This is not the case within them as some are battling over land / power
Russia lies summed up at the UN.
But the biggest problem when your going to be soley reliant on western IFVs and tanks to fight to the Russian border you can ill afford to lose them in numbers that could slow down any offensive,
It's a balancing act
Looks like those burning Leopard tanks are more Russian Nazi propaganda. Confirmed they are photoshops of previous russian tank losses.
Cope harder Vatniks.
Unfortunately it's always going to happen,as I previously said that led to posters having complete meltdowns 😂😂😂,
You can't move columns of armor and other vehicles across open ground without air and artillery cover and not expect to take heavy artillery barrages from the Russians ,the same vehicles are prone to drones and loitering munitions as they don't have active air defenses, just as we already seen in the various failed Russian offensives recently
We will see more vehicles losses as the counter offensive begins to increase operations
Yes, but although they've made it harder to cross downstream of the dam for now, they've also made it easier to cross upstream.
Strategically, blowing the dam only made sense if the deluge of water caused troop/equipment/infrastructure losses to the Ukrainians. From the reports I read yesterday, the water levels have already peaked in Kherson.
Each state or russian republic is set up in such a way as to bind it to russia as much as possible , wether its through borders designed to cut through ethnic groups or dependant on their neighbours and the federal state for energy or export infrastructure,
So while its possible to split ,it would probably need groups of several republics to work together to be able to function without moscow ..
Im not sure about the nukes , theyre expensive to maintain - and made to be difficult to use without the codes -which is why a large ,technically advanced ,but broke country like ukraine got rid of theirs.
Also where are the nukes kept ? I assume most of them are on "safe " russian soil... Ie. Surrounded by ethnic russian populations ..
THat is a very reductionist view of German history. And in any event, German (or more accruately Prussian) militarism is a long-extinct force
A 'disaster'?
Strong words from someone with a point to prove.
good god no.....leave those fukkers within their own borders and have nothing to do with them .
I think it's unlikely that any breakup would resemble the relatively orderly dissolution of the Soviet Union into neat little self-governing units. Right now all of the federal units are run by Governors who were hand-picked by Putin. So the first thing is that they would be toppled leading to local power vacuums.
I think ultimately it would be chaotic and messy and could end up looking something like Libya or Sudan with high ranking officers in the Russian Army or PMCs creating their own armies to fight each other for territory and resources (we're effectively seeing a taste of this already with the likes of Prigozhyn and Kadyrov). And that's not even mentioning the elephant in the room - the nuclear arsenal all over the country.
Regarding the future of Russia it will most likely shrink from what we know of it. Half of the Russia population lives in the western most eight, the other 7/8 is extremely sparsely populated. That's a geographical spread far beyond the social stability scope of the EU project. Greater Russia is a legacy of the Romanov era which bound mostly nomadic nations.
Now those nations are their own countries like Kazakhstan which recently switched away from using Russian cyrillic script. Russia has terrible demographic decline which makes holding the Romanov legacy together a losing battle, so all it's projections of strength concentrate on the tangible enclaves of its western frontier.
If Russia was confident it could still take Ukraine it would not have blown the dam, which is why I believe it was an act of panic to establish a new goal of a Russian border on the Dnipro river.
The point of having tanks is to use them.
When you use things in war some of them will get destroyed.
Such is life.
The French, Dutch, Germans will never agree to Ukraine joining, never mind Russia.
It would shift the centre of power in the EU over to Central Europe.
I think I would disagree with the comments made earlier about not wanting Russia to self implode.
While Russia operates as a single entity, conquering forces are looking outward towards Ukraine. If the republics within Russia start to defect and strive for independence, that's more power whittled away from the whole. And based on a lot of what we've seen during this war, It sounds like there is very little for the republics to miss if they annex themselves. It wouldn't be ideal for those within Russia as it stands today as they deal with the fallout of striving for independence but the reality here is that Russia as a country as large as it is doesn't seem to work.
Why do they blur out the bit in the middle - a body? Didn't see any bodies thankfully. Gear can be replaced in time.
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