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EV price war of 2023

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭sh81722


    Yes, I reckon Tesla is the 1st EV manufacturer that have something like the car industry normal inventory of cars. Some figures I read recently says that they have 2500 cars in inventory in US. That's what 0.5 weeks of production of one of their factories.

    And this is without any advertising, so most of the public know nothing about Tesla apart or maybe from that they are supposedly out of reach financially and starting price is 80k or that the CEO is mad.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,112 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Yeah but luckily it's all the ICE cars that are in inventory, and they're just a waste of metal. Might as well just chuck them straight in the scrapyard

    Or better yet, don't build the Dino fueled bangers in the first place

    The inventory "problem" is in the US. Apparently there's more teslas in inventory than ever which some have taken to mean the company is doomed and the future of motoring is the Toyota Corolla hybrid 🙄

    To some extent, it's Tesla's own fault since they make it very easy to track vehicles on inventory. As Gumbo said every other manufacturer has the same issue but it's better hidden because that inventory is scattered throughout hundreds of dealerships

    If you dig into the numbers a bit, the inventory is mostly Model Xs and 3s. Again no surprise there, suddenly the most expensive model becomes harder to afford in a cost of living crisis and high interest rates, so people downgrade to a S or Y.

    Model 3 is also due a refresh, so I suspect a lot of folks cancelled reservations to get the newer one. I'm also suspicious that a load of people cancelled reservations due to the price drops to try and pick one up from inventory at a lower price

    So yeah, the "problem" isn't a real problem

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,132 ✭✭✭joe1303l


    Link below to the article I came across. Model Y is definitely going to be the new Corolla in terms of worldwide sales but a portion of its success is at the expense of the outgoing Model 3.

    https://electrek.co/2023/04/27/tesla-tsla-inventory-high-price-cuts/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭sh81722


    So 2.5 k cars which is 0.5 weeks of production of Texas GF. Doesn't sound like a major issue to me.

    The difference between Tesla and say a VW sales process is that in latter a client orders a car, the dealer books it in, and makes the order for that particular car. So there is no inventory but it takes between 6 months and 2 years to get the car. Tesla on the other hand guesses which colour sells the best and then makes cars which will be matched by current active orders.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,111 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    So 2.5 k cars which is 0.5 weeks of production of Texas GF. Doesn't sound like a major issue to me.

    I agree. If all the posts about excess inventory is based on that 2500 figure, its just noise. There isn't an excess inventory problem if that's all it is.

    The Q1 earnings call did also specifically call out that there were alot of extra S and X orders in transit in Q1 as they resumed International deliveries (i.e. they were in transit at the end of Q1, hence inventory) and of the 2500 in that analysis above, 1200 were Model X's so the whole "excess inventory" idea doesn't seem to line up at all.



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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,889 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Not sure if it's Y sales scavenging from the 3 or we are just seeing an example of the Osborne effect with 3 refresh well on it's way. I'm sure there are a number of customers who don't want the tall crossover style but are waiting to see what comes with the Highland refresh.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    +1

    Im waiting to see the refresh before I decide what I’m doing with my current 2020 M3P.



  • Registered Users Posts: 563 ✭✭✭sonyvision


    My mother in law bought a 2018 leaf brand new and since I got to drive it I always wanted to change my dead diesels for an EV. With covid demand went crazy and a new eletric car at 40/50k is beyond what I'm willing to pay. In the last few weeks is it just me or have used car prices for eletric EVs finally started to reflect depreciation? Looking at 20k mark, I often only saw the leaf 30 or less. Now plenty of leaf 40 appearing at 17/18k and some tesla model 3 at 35/36k. Maybe I just seen so much inflation I'm fooled into thinking used EVs are becoming better value.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭MightyMunster


    Yes you're right, as new prices have dropped it has reduced used EV prices too. You'd get a 2020 M3 for 30-35k easily enough and should still be under full warranty with another 4years of battery/motor warranty



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,112 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Just checked DoneDeal and I'm seeing 77kWh 2021 ID.4s for €35k

    They'd have been up at €41k 6 months ago

    Looks like depreciation is back to being a thing. Great for second hand buyers, not so great for the sellers 😕

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,655 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    The only 2021 77kwh for 35k has 90k kms on it already, thats bound to affect price with such mileage in short time. Shows how people can make an EV fit into a high mileage lifestyle though.

    Another one with no picture for 37k so not sure if it even exists then you are into 39k for anything I would even look at.


    The rest are the 52kwh battery which would still do most people fine to be honest but would be a turn off for others so obviously reflected in price and demand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,132 ✭✭✭joe1303l


    Lots of used ID.4’s available now. 200+ 2021/2022 models on DD. Lots of 1st Edition ID.4’s being traded in over the last few weeks for 2023 models. Cost to change can very small as these cars were bought for close to €43K new. They have great spec compared to the likes of the Life DX they’re selling now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,713 ✭✭✭Raoul


    Any thoughts on what way it will continue to go over the next few months. I probably need to buy a car for say Sept. I am probably better of waiting?

    I was thinking of a 2nd hand EV for like absolutely max 200 km.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,132 ✭✭✭joe1303l


    I’d buy now while you have plenty choice and can shop around. If you can charge at home cheaply, you’ll be saving money on fuel/road tax etc. from now rather than waiting. If you do want to wait until Sept, you might be better off to hold out until the following January when dealers will get their next influx of used EV’s.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,713 ✭✭✭Raoul


    Cheers for the advice. At the moment, I don't have any good rate for electricity and I don't have solar. We are expecting our first child later in the year and we were thinking of a 2nd car to go with the ICE so that my wife on maternity leave isn't stuck at home.

    We aren't sure what to buy yet. Whether to get a family car or just have the EV as the second car.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭sh81722


    A baby doesn't require a tank anyway, just a decent size boot for the pram. I think the Nissan leaf 40 kWh 2018 -> would be a good choice as a localish car i.e. not for frequent long trips. The boot on them is much bigger than on the earlier model and you should be able to choose from many cars now at below €20k point.

    We have a 2016 older model as the 2nd car and they are good for that sort of thing. We also had the newer model as the main car in the past and they are very reliable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,112 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    I can confirm that a Nissan Leaf (any model without the silly subwoofer in the boot) will have enough space for a buggy and baby bag (been there, done all that 😂)

    So then it's really a question of budget and what range limitations you're willing to accept. The older Leafs are going fairly cheap these days but the batteries are getting pretty degraded and they're really only useful for a local runabout (which they're great at if you can charge at home)

    Finally starting to see the 40kWh Leaf around €16-17k region so they're probably worth looking at

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users Posts: 315 ✭✭Stevie2001


    Starting to depreciate alright, especially higher mileage stuff out of manufacture warranty

    I do wonder how the value of EV's with no warranty will hold up, the mundane stuff, the VW, Renaults, Nissan's, MG's, Skoda's etc when much more advanced EV's hit the market in 5-10 years

    Most consumers wouldn't have any hesitation buying a 4 year old diesel Octavia with 100k km on it and out of manufacture warranty, but I don't think the same appetite will be there for out of warranty private sales EV's

    You've got 2 issues with EV's that are not such an issue with ICE

    1. Advancing technology, a used EV today will degrade and your 300km range now becomes 250km, even 200km when it gets past 200k km/8 years old
    2. Outside of maybe main dealers we don't have the industry in this country to repair EV's that are out of warranty and need fixing, they become almost throwaway cars if something goes in them and the battery gets salvaged and sold off, I've a friend that uses his Leaf battery as solar panel storage, as the cost to repair the car wasn't worth it

    Donedeal have a boatload of older Leaf's for sale, seems to be a car that's pretty undesirable now, For example a 24/30/40kWh LEAF with chademo, a small battery and without liquid cooling is yesterdays technology. In what way will the current generation of EVs seem very underwhelming in 5-10 years time? I don't know but I expect there will be something.

    Even Tesla face this issue, a 3-4 year old Model 3 on NMC batteries is much much inferior to a modern Model 3 with LFP cells, your talking 800 cycles vs a few thousand cycles, the new Kia's and Hyundai's similar, they make the previous Kona and Niro look old hat, surprised you can still even buy them new



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,889 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    We saw rapid technology development with regard to mobile phones where the yearly release would improve battery life, processing power, camera's etc until we got to a point where the marginal improvements were minor.

    I'd argue that 800 cycles on a car with a usable range of 400km giving a 320,000km expected usable life versus 3,000 cycles on a LFP battery is meaningless to most consumers. Of 40,491 cars listed on Carzone only 183 have a listed mileage above 300,000km.

    Where we're really seeing big drops is the early models that had inferior chemistry and smaller batteries. If you compare an original Leaf (22kWh usable, est range 125km) vs a Kona (64kWh usable, est range 390km) doing the average Irish annual milage of 17,000km the Leaf is doing 136 cycles per year, vs the Kona doing 43.5. If we assume that both chemistries (and supporting in-car systems) are capable of 1,000 cycles before dropping to 70% of original capacity, you end up with Leaf reaching end-of-life at 7 years 4 months, vs a Kona at 23 years.

    As such I don't think we're going to see massive shifts in depreciation for post 2020 cars, they'll gradually settle down into standard depreciation curves with the biggest factor being the introduction of cheaper EVs from China instead of newer technology coming from the established brands.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,433 ✭✭✭September1


    they'll gradually settle down into standard depreciation curves

    @liamog I think there is major difference with EVs. Traditional cars after end of life become source of spare parts and source of basic materials, meanwhile EVs have batteries and other electrical components that would permit reuse. Someone mentioned in this thread that their friend uses old battery for solar storage, that is something not typical for previous generation of vehicles.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    I wouldn’t buy any 4 year old car with 160k km on it! Skoda or otherwise!



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,713 ✭✭✭Raoul


    Not sure yet to be honest. I haven't even broached the subject with the wife ha.

    If we are going for a smaller second hand car then prob 20k. Larger car then maybe around 30k mark.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    €20k

    1. Leaf 40 kWh.
    2. Ioniq 28 kWh or the 38 kWh version of any in budget.
    3. Zoe.

    €30k

    1. Tesla Model 3 might hit that later this year. Especially a 2019 one which although 4 years old is still as good as most of the new cars today.
    2. MG4 for €33k if you can stretch slightly.

    There’s most likely others to consider too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,132 ✭✭✭joe1303l


    I’d add the e-Golf to the €20K listing, good few of them on DD at the moment.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Yeah good contender. Range a bit low compared to the others though but once it works for the OP.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,713 ✭✭✭Raoul


    Cheers lads. Something to think about over the next few weeks!



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,889 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    We don't recycle EV components, we place them all into landfill the day after the warranty expires or as soon as we purchase a new car. Have you not kept up with the Facebook posts?

    But in all seriousness yes it does somewhat put a floor on the eventual price, the operations that were paying €500 for a car's scrap value will likely have to do so after the batteries are stripped out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 948 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    Looks like more cuts are coming in the US. Any chance of it happening here?

    The global EV company is now offering discounts of up to around $2,680 on rear-wheel drive Model 3 new inventory vehicles in the U.S. The new deal is double the $1,300 discount Tesla began offering almost two weeks ago.

    https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-quietly-increases-u-s-vehicle-discounts-elon-musk-doesnt-unveil-new-model-3/?src=A00220



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭THE ALM


    I don't see it happening before the June grant change, look at the hassle with revenue after the last price drop and length of time it has taken to sort out. Tesla will want to shift that stock this quarter and avoid a repeat and avail of the full 5k grant.



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