EV price war of 2023

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120494770#Comment_120494770

Extremely limited mechanical or breakdown potential I suppose is a massive one. Reliability.

That may not be a risk though with a corolla.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120495359#Comment_120495359

Shouldn't really bother a new car owner though.

Petrol and Diesel prices appear to have stabilised but electricity prices should start to fall.

I'm expecting something around 30c / 15c in the medium term.

I suspect the suppliers will hold out over the summer and when the government start banging the drum coming into the winter they will be seen to play ball, even though reductions were inevitable anyway.

Stevie2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120495359#Comment_120495359

Are they really more reliable though? I'm not sure that's a selling point vs a Corolla or Octavia etc

I get less to go wrong mechanically, but the other issues? some EV's have been plagued with software issues and the battery recalls, Kona, Bolt, Kia for example

The MG thread was mostly owners complaining about that oil leak for months and guys cancelling orders over it.

Stevie2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120495828#Comment_120495828

30c isn't attractive enough imo, fine if you can run stuff at night, but if you've kids and you can't run stuff at night, 30c a unit and the car takes 20 units per 100km, is 6euro for 100km, any decent petrol or diesel will do 5l/100km and at 1.60e a litre is 8euro for 100km

6euro vs 8 euro per 100km, is only a saving of 300euro if you do average 15,000km a year

That's a lot of money to spend and a lot of hassle re charging a car every 250km on a motorway with kids in it to save 300e a year on fuel

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120495967#Comment_120495967

You would really need to be charging the car on the night rate but even at that you would be saving about €1000 if the night rate comes back to something like 15c.

Stevie2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120495981#Comment_120495981

But don't most night rates have a higher day time rate?

Like if it's 30c/15c for day night, wouldn't day only be like 24c?

You don't save much then as you'd be running at 30c during day

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496003#Comment_120496003

Electric Ireland are about 41c then 44 and 21 for day night.

So I'd guess if we could be looking at something like 27c 24hr rate if day night went to about 30/15.

Stevie2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496044#Comment_120496044

Night makes a lot of sense then even if its only charging the car

magicbastarder

starting to think about our options for replacing our 11 year old octavia - and am very fond of the sheer practicality of the boot on it. but there's probably nothing close to it in the EV market?

Casati

Tesla are killing the competition on price - one real standout is the Mach-e.

Tesla Model 3 RWD is $39,990 in U.S. after govt discount and Ford cutting pricing- w Mach-e RWD 70kW is the same price - i.e. $39,990

Its a similar story in China where Ford cut Mach-e prices massively to match Tesla

https://www.carscoops.com/2023/03/ford-cuts-mustang-mach-es-prices-in-china-by-5700/

Here a Model 3 RWD is almost the same price as in the U.S. - circa €40k where as the Mach-e RWD 70kW here is €67,666.

Premium AWD long range Mach-e is €85,825 here is $54,995 in the States - which compares with the Model 3 Performance price of $53,000. Here we can now get a Model 3 Performance for €54,000. I know both countries have different grants and we have VRT and VAT

Volkswagen (and Skoda) are unlikely to reduce rrp but are very likely to effectively reduce prices by offering scrapple deals and very cheap packs. The other big tool they have is to drop PCP interest as needed. They did this for many years with Golfs and Tiguans - kept the rrp higher than competitors which helped to keep used prices also v high, but offered stuff like pano roof for €499 or PCP at 0% along with scrapple which artificially keeps trade-in prices looking high.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496095#Comment_120496095

And during summer it's until 9am so washing machines, showers etc. can all be run on night rate if there are early risers.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496459#Comment_120496459

Yeah that's what I do when the weather is looking overcast and I might not get enough solar to run the appliances during the day, I'll run dishwasher and washing machine overnight and then offload the washing to the dryer first thing so it's basically done by the time the night rate ends

Also FWIW, I've been driving on sunshine pretty much since the start of April. If you're a low mileage user then you can get a large percentage of driving from solar alone

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120494770#Comment_120494770

I always work on the average car model, a car that can do 4.5L/100km and a car that can do 17kWh/100km

At these rates a liter of fuel needs to be 3.7 times that of a kWh of electricity for parity so at the moment liquid fuel is about 1.60/L meaning 43c/kWh is parity

One thing about the above calculation though, how much tax is about to go back on the liter of liquid fuel? Is it 15/20c... And for how much longer will a kWh of electricity stay this high?

daheff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496162#Comment_120496162

There's an interesting point in here somewhere on PCPs and VW keeping prices up. I guess they have a vested interest in Keep prices up as they have a number of cars sold on PCP with a reasonably high minimum value at the end of the term. If the let the prices drop too quickly the might find people handing back keys at the end of a PCP term as it cheaper to buy a similar aged car second hand.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496634#Comment_120496634

Wouldn't the cheapest option at the end of a PCP be to buy out the car? For example the GMFV of a 2021 ID.4 1st Max is ~€24k

Can't see anyone getting an equivalent EV for €24k

Other option is to sell and pay off the loan, then use the equity to buy another car.

I would imagine VW will use that lever to keep customers coming back, probably offer a high trade in value for existing ID cars

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496604#Comment_120496604

Also worth remembering that oil is currently sitting around $85 per barrel, which isn't as high as 2022 prices but still quite high. And with OPEC doing production cuts to drive up the price then I could see the price of petrol going up again

I don't think it'll go over the €2 mark again, but remember pre COVID it was around €1.20 IIRC, so even now we're still seeing high prices at the pumps

Electricity is a bit harder to call, there seems to be a game of chicken going on between the suppliers as to who will drop prices first

They're also locked into long term price contracts, so they're still paying premium rates for gas and it's still quite expensive compared to pre COVID

Normally it seems to be Energia or SSE who announce price cuts to try and tempt in some customers, but they're probably sitting on it waiting for one of the big suppliers to do something

Jakey Rolling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496154#Comment_120496154

I'm the same, our dog practically lives in the boot of my Octavia.

Considering the MG5, dealer in Cork said they should have demo model in September. Range not the best, but price is attractive.

MojoMaker

MG5 same dimensions as Focus estate if you're comparing - i.e. short of the Octavia's dimensions for what it's worth.

Additionally - and it's worth considering - after a few weeks you will start to feel like a taxi, even if you aren't, because the only other MG5s you'll see about the place will be taxis.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496604#Comment_120496604

ESB rates should drop by the end of the year. They hedge purchase the power a year in advance. We should be seeing drops after the summer hopefully!

daheff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496890#Comment_120496890

My point is that VW won't want prices to drop.

If your GMFV is (say) 20k and second hand market is 15k then why would you not hand back the keys and buy second hand?

GMFV is set off the New price. If cars for the next few years are cheaper, second hand prices will drop, but cars GMFV won't. So it's in VWs interest to keep prices up, not to let them drop off.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496919#Comment_120496919

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120497110#Comment_120497110

I'd say it's closer to 6 months than a year for the hedging... That's judging by the fact that there was 3 increases last year (if memory serves) whereas if they hedged annually there would in theory be only one

Of course the suppliers (which more fittingly should probably be called billing companies) could simply be screwing us over, in which case these prices are never going down

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120497433#Comment_120497433

Well part of the problem last year was that suppliers weren't hedging enough supply, or at all it seems. Which meant they got stung badly by price increases

They seem to have copped on a bit and there's a lot of discussion at EU levels about forcing suppliers to hedge a certain percentage of gas purchases

And frankly I would be prepared to believe the energy providers are trying to make some money at the moment

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120497220#Comment_120497220

I agree that VW don't want prices dripping, but there's also a balance to be struck, which is why they're using other mechanisms

I don't think we're close to seeing the second hand market being able to undercut the GMFV of some EVs on the road at the moment, but if prices keep dropping then it'll mean less equity at the end of a PCP contract

Which gives VW more reason to offer good trade in because they want those PCP customers buying new cars and not keeping their current ones

RidleyJones

Anyone that paid over 40k for a Renault car in the first place should end up massively out of pocket to be honest. When I seen that I knew the market had got to the most stupid levels ever.

Tesla will drop, people will buy and then the others will follow suit. Someone posted that Hyundai had cancelled the order they had for a Kona, for very very similar money you can get a Model 3 now.

Manufacturers will jump around for a few months and try get the last few people willing to part with mental money and then drop like stones. Excuses like new models coming out etc will be used.

VW will do the same, they dropped the eGolf by 5k without an issue when they wanted

Stevie2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499203#Comment_120499203

I can't wait for the firesale

Once the Tesla M3P gets into the high €40,000 range, I am buying

Toyota must be laughing asses off at VW etc, they are having record sales and can go into EV's at short notice anyway if needs be, while VW etc gonna be sitting on factories that are too big when the firesale starts and consumers say no thanks to being forced into EV's by governments

Gonna get interesting I think, think governments have been too aggressive with EV push and ICE ban1 and the poorer nations consumers not gonna play ball like the rich Scandinavian consumers

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502601#Comment_120502601

The customer demand for EVs is already here, government bans don't start till 2030/2035.

You must be the only person who analyses an increasing market share as as "no demand"

Stevie2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502899#Comment_120502899

I think the demand is stagnating, hence the incoming price wars

It's only anecdotal but since Ukraine and the energy price increase consumer confidence in EVs has fallen imo, I know a few people who were gonna buy EV's and when electricity prices went up almost overnight , they had major doubts, humans are strange, they don't think much of putting €30 petrol in the tank but the thought of electricity bills increasing, a lot of people are struggling too due to inflation and recession incoming, only so many can afford 30k+ cars

fits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496926#Comment_120496926

I think the ioniq5 might have a bigger boot than the mg5. That’s only a guess from looking in the back of both. The ioniq 5 is best value non Tesla ev at the moment I think. But they aren’t taking orders.

edit: Ioniq 5 has 527 litres

MG5 has 578 “to the roof”

enyaq 585 litres

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502937#Comment_120502937

Sales are up 80% Yoy every year for the past few years, EVs have hit a record market share and have surpassed diesel sales. VW ID.4 is in the top 10 cars sold and is one of the pricier EVs on the road

I'm struggling to see this lack of consumer confidence in EVs 😉

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120503095#Comment_120503095

It's still in the low hanging fruit phase though, people with driveways, PV, longish commutes and enough cash are I assume the predominant buyers at the moment.

How far the market penetrates we don't really know yet.

The playing field between ICE and EV is skewed towards EV's with various incentives, and I expect this to continue.