Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

They cant walk away if they have significant assets. Once again with the shinners coming in they have been spouting on about how ridiculously low our vacant land tax is and I can see them upping this tax significantly. So it will be a case of use it or lose it one way or the other, it doesn't matter how many shell companies there are in operation if they are not building at the price point that people can afford (and currently our younger generation 30 downward cannot afford to buy or rent) then the value of their asset will diminish on a annual basis. If the shinners were no where near power I dont think anything would change in construction too many brown envelope dealings and self interests issues with regards to the current gov and the construction lobbyists. Be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 5 years or so.

Where am I guessing. Look at the construction outputs and PMIs for the last year they are way down. Look at our population under 30 the vast majority are locked out of owning or renting somewhere, the vast majority of home owners are over 30 so it will be our younger population who will be looking to buy these new houses and they simply cannot afford the current price point.. Look at the profit margin made by just the top 50 construction companies alone in Ireland over 10 billion last year and the narrative that its all about the raw materials when in a lot of areas these costs have come right back down and no one questions how much the industry is making.. Sinn Fein in the last pole are more popular then both FF and FG combined.

So who is dreaming we have already seen property prices drop 6 months in a row in Dublin and 3 months for the rest of the country. Yet you think that this pattern is going to flip? Don't think so not with another 2 interest rate increases before July further taking demand for property away via affordability. So like I say its a question of how long construction companies can operate when the shinners are in power, when access to cheap credit is no longer an option for them, while other revenue options like building commercial properties is no longer viable either, while they are not building ergo not making any profit and after the vacant land tax is upped.. Also other indicators like permits for new build are also dropping.

So who is living in the fantasy world. this is all happening currently no guess work involved.

Thanks for that and I also predicted prices would start dropping this year around April of last year due to the interest rate hikes and got ridiculed again basically changing my opinion on property prices from 2020 and its happening currently and some here stick the head in the sand and refuse to believe it.

Can second this. Have been on this thread since 2020 and of all the posters making predictions, fliball has been by far the most accurate.

Predicted a boom in 2020 when conventional wisdom suggested otherwise. Predicted a fall a few months in advance of all the CSO stats turning negative late last year.

I disagreed with him most of the time so think that makes me the least accurate 😂

You're getting slightly ahead of yourself in the scenario you're painting. We have higher interest rates currently, the SF government however, if it ever happens that is, is at least another twelve months away, and it remains to be seen what they actually do once they take the reins.

Bring back PropQueries. He was just a little ahead of the curve with his predictions!

Prop queries

’there was 60mm of rain in Cambodia yesterday. I think this clearly shows that there will certainly be AT LEAST a 60% drop in Irish House Prices in the next 3 months’

No end to that man’s creativity. The thread was better with him around.

But what will the Shinners actually do regarding housing?

increase vacant land tax, yes.

Possibly restrict investment funds, which will just lead to fewer homes being built, not more.

We arent going to magic up thousands of tradesmen becasue the Shinners get in. So where is their labour?

I just dont see a clear path to them actually increasing output, especially when facing into a headwind of higher interest rates and building costs.

The Shinners are certainly an unknown prospect and yes, they have clearly set their stall out on house building.

But as we all know, promises are often made with little substance by politicians.

I am interested to see how they will increase housing output. What will they do differently...

I like the Modular home idea and there will likley be precedent for that at scale to house Asylum Seekers.

I wonder whether these homes will be objected into oblivion in urban areas, where people want to live, though.

I agree that the young folks cant afford the prices, but that doesnt mean the Shinners will oversee increased housing output, it just means that either the young wont get a look in (like today) or the prices will fall. Which, of course, is likley.

40k increase in contruction staff is a lot in 12 months, put its post covid and from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022.

Most industries were resetting during that period, so its to be expected.

i am thinking more in comparitive terms with today. The industry isnt going to expand at that rate from now and over the next 5 years.

If we take 2022 and 2023 housing outputs, which is 23k to 30k in 2022 and perhaps 20k to 25k this year, are the Shinners likley to up that output significantly?

I dont really see how.

Construction industry is expected to expand about 4% annually over the next 3 years, so no sign of large numbers of staff being made available from here on out.

Perhaps SF will invest more heavily in social housing completions & scale up teams there and hopefully they would take some blockages out of the planning process. But all that will take time to enact and years to realise.

Over the next 5 yrs, its hard to see the numbers rising too much over 30k per year, regardless of who is in govt.

Hopefully I am wrong.

Well I predict that there will be a softening, time will tell especially if IR stay elevated for the next year or so and the 3-4 year fixer mortgage people at very low interest rates from 2019/covid times end up with some slapped ar$e.

You won't see price drops at that level in Dublin, more likely to see more competition as those that were fishing in the 400/500k pool have been kicked out to the 300/400k pool