Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Galwayhurl

Just 13,400 properties excluding sites for sale on Daft. The lowest number in the last 2 years. And we're almost in June so things should be ramping up.

It's almost 5000 fewer than last summers high of 18,200. Not good.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120608560#Comment_120608560

and yet prices are still dropping, continued interest rate rises are gradually having an affect

ApeEvolved

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120608560#Comment_120608560

Rates, rates, rates. The effect of rates is delayed. Its going to really come to head soon.

Expect the number of properties for sale to stay low for a while, but all of a sudden to start picking up rapidly when prices really start to drop.

Prices are dropping right now as effect of rates slowly start to impact, but the impact has barely got going. Once people realize prices are falling and recession hits world economies, the drops will be dramatic. Not driven by only rates, but also sentiment.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120609042#Comment_120609042

Why would people sell due to rate increases, and where do they go?

I ask because it could take a decade for a bank to recover a house from someone who doesn’t pay their mortgage.

Also, as rents are rising, even with higher rates, a mortgage is still likely to be cheaper than renting.

I think there is a touch of chicken Licken about your post.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120608218#Comment_120608218

Absolutely. The only people who refuse to see the waste are definitely at the receiving end of this waste of cash, therefore don't want to lose it.

ApeEvolved

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120609099#Comment_120609099

Rates impact everything. Rising rates are going to cause recession, as intended, which will massively impact not only purchases, but also the amount of people being forced or choosing to sell.

Property markets have been increasingly driven by investors over the last decade. The higher rates go, the less reason there is for them to go near property. We are already beginning to see a run into more safe returns offered by higher rates. Stupidly low rates caused property price expansion across the globe, and the reverse will cause the unravelling.

Forget about the supply narrative being told across developed Countries, as thats exactly what it is.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120609099#Comment_120609099

persistent high inflation combined with a series of ongoing interest rate rises lead to lower and lower house price affordability eventually leading to would be house buyers to either reduce the amount they can actually offer to pay for a house (if getting a mortgage) or delay/cancel house purchase

over a period of time 6-12+ months sellers eventually realise that the peak of the housing market has occured (possibly october 2022) and decide to lower the asking price they are seeking in light of the new reality on the ground or else delay/cancel plans to sell the property whichever suits their personal circumstances best

as to where the seller would go... perhaps they would buy another house as originally planned only this time it may be cheaper as the market drops

uk banks/economists are predicting a 7-15% drop in UK house prices by mid 2024 for example we are just a little bit behind

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120609099#Comment_120609099

People trying to capitalise on high house prices - once assets start falling and the peak is passed it is time to sell quick.

Remaining small landlords in particular will be selling much faster when its reported on that prices are infact falling. Most small landlords do it as a retirement income, so when the asset starts depreciating its time to liquidate

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120607977#Comment_120607977

More like 0.8% less than September 2022. A 3% reduction from September 2022 prices would bring us back to May 2022, and at this point the YoY would show negative (which isn't the case yet).

The RPI for August and September 2022 was unchanged, prices didn't move. The current RPI is lower than August 2022, but higher than July 2022. Prices are roughly 0.8% above July 2022 levels.

For the YoY to flip negative, prices in April would need to drop 3.4%, very unlikely at current trends. YoY likely to trend positive until July or August if current trends continue.

Prices usually bump a bit in the summer, but as previously noted in the thread, less people are selling right now than is usual for this time of year, so hard to predict.

Bakharwaldog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120609571#Comment_120609571

I'd check the numbers for yourself on CSO. A lot bigger drop than 0.8%. There was a 0.9% drop in last month alone in Dublin

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610170#Comment_120610170

I am basing my numbers on the CSO, though you're right, it's 0.9%, not 0.8%. These are the national figures, not Dublin.

RPI in Sept 2022 = 167.7

RPI in March 2023 = 166.2

A drop of 1.5 points, or 0.9%.

Dublin is:

RPI in Sept 2022 = 150.9

RPI in March 2023 = 146.1

A drop of 4.8 points, or 3%. Maybe you were only talking about Dublin in your post.

mike_cork

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1658877390729117698

Hadn't realized the minor decrease in prices is the steepest fall in 10 years!

Bakharwaldog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610190#Comment_120610190

You are completely right, sorry. I was using Dublin data!

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120608539#Comment_120608539

You claimed, and I quote, "A person earning 300k in Ireland will more income tax than almost any non-Scandinavian country in Europe" This is demonstrably completely false - I named four non Scandinavian countries in my reply, and they're not the only ones. Even in your examples, someone in Germany earning €300k has an effective tax rate of 44%. In the UK 44%. They're not exactly low tax paradises compared to Ireland's 47% now are they? Particularly with their significantly lower average incomes on top...

You also claimed "Ireland is already bleeding high income earners for everything" - which is again statistically completely false. Trying to walk it back by now claiming our positive inward migration rate for high earners is down to X or Y doesn't change the fact your initial statement was completely false.

Higher property taxes encouraging downsizing doesn't need to make sense to you, its, again, completely statistically proven.

Ireland having the most progressive income tax structure in the EU is not remotely the same as Ireland having the highest income taxes for high earners in the EU, which is what you were initially claiming.

Why are you making up completely incorrect factual statements repeatedly? If you're going to make posts about a subject and attempt to sound authoritative the least you could do is do some basic research.

I get it, you don't want to pay property taxes, but the least you could do is actually make coherent, fact based, arguments against them instead of spouting gibberish.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610235#Comment_120610235

No worries.

Taking the 1.5% drop in 3 months, if that trend continues at roughly the same pace, prices would drop to Jan 2018 levels (just picked an arbitrary date) in about 57 months, which would represent about a 24% drop overall in prices. Personally, barring some catastrophic event I believe that prices will stabilise before they get anywhere near 25% below today due to existing pressures on the market, but nobody knows for sure.

Again, this is nationally, not Dublin data.

Prices are falling, and while it's the steepest in 10 years, the rate of decline is still very, very slow right now.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610294#Comment_120610294

Pretty much every single thing you’ve said there is completely false.

‘I named 4 countries with higher taxes’. You named 2 with higher. 1 with the same. 1 of the ones with higher taxes you seem to have quoted wrong versus anything I can see online. France appears to have marginally lower taxes on 300k income than Ireland from what I can see. So as far as I can see out of the 40 odd non-scandavian countries, you have named 1 with higher taxes than Ireland at that income level. So yes, Ireland is a high income tax country for high earners.

’Ireland is bleeding high income earners dry’. This isn’t a factual statement, it’s an assessment that I suspect 99% of people would agree with. It is also consistent with us having the most progressive tax system in the EU. I.E. we relatively bleed more from high income earners vs low income earners compared to any other EU country.

’Property taxes encourage downsizing’ - duh, but not when you literally exempt 95%+ of potential down-sizers from the tax entirely through an absurdly high exemption income level.

’you don’t want to pay property taxes’ - I said in multiple posts said I fully support higher property taxes and believe mine to be comically low. I pay more income tax in a single working day than I do in a year on my €1m+ house. I would happily see a tripling or more of property taxes and more rigorous enforcement of values. What I said was I don’t believe in your bizarre idea of property taxes that goes to 3% of value in high income households who already pay large swathes of tax, and exempt owners of €10m houses assuming their income is now below €100k. This would be an even further narrowing of Ireland tax base when we need to be widening it. Property taxes are currently one of the few taxes that could meaningfully and stably collect income from a huge tax base and you are proposing exempting 90% odd of households entirely.

The structure of your proposal is so beyond idiotic it’s hard to fathom but as with anyone driven by an extreme idealogy there’s no point arguing further. Thankfully we have smarter people in power so it’s not something we need to worry about.

ApeEvolved

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610228#Comment_120610228

Property prices move slowly but obviously that is a big drop. Dont mind the uneducated opinions.

You have to remember prices were rising consistently until recently.

ApeEvolved

This is what happens when politicians( elected leaders ) literally tell people to not leave their homes if they are evicted.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/dublin/dublin-news/gardai-called-to-violent-scenes-during-eviction-at-dublin-home/a270331450.html

You couldnt make it up. Simon Harris, keeping the peace with logical suggestions. Should be fired.

ApeEvolved

Any logical landlord will be fleeing in the face of recession.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610595#Comment_120610595

There won’t be a recession. and if there is, the money taps will come on again…..

Ozark707

There seems to have been an increase (albeit from a low base) in the number of Price Reductions on myhome (Dublin only I am monitoring) in recent days. What struck me is that some of the drops are chunkier than what I previously perceived. I know of someone selling ATM. Looks to have gone SA now at asking, but far less than what the EA advised they would get.

Browney7

The new vs existing properties is continuing to look interesting. Likely that new houses that are executing now were price agreed 12 months prior and so will continue to drive upward growth in the index as the houses that were "agreed" in the past quarter get delivered at year end. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmarch2023/newandexistingdwellings/

The government secret sauce of the 50k "vacant" grant and 70k "derelict" grant will also come through in the next few months. I'm far from a property "bull" but I find it difficult to envisage any significant declines between now and year end (<5% on existing property). That said, if the banks stop keeping fixed rates "low" and actually start to bleed in the interest rate rises that could change things more.

TLDR - who knows!

FernandoTorres

Can't see the vacant/derelict property grants having much effect. As It's just tinkering around the edges, is difficult to qualify for and as usual sellers and builders are jacking up their prices accordingly. Current price declines are low but consistent. Property rarely drops a lot at the start but can be hard to stop once it gets going. Think we're definitely at the limits of affordability now for new buyers with current/predicted interest rates.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610437#Comment_120610437

I struggle to believe you did any sort of research if you're still trying to maintain Ireland is a uniquely high tax country, and still making more verifiably statistically false claims. The evidence is all over the internet, but heres a very easily digestible chart to sum it up for you in one image I guess if thats whats required:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_in_Europe#/media/File:Payroll_and_income_tax_by_country.png

And heres an equally easy to digest map of the top marginal tax rates in Europe for you, since that was your initial talking point:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_in_Europe#/media/File:Top_Marginal_Tax_Rates_In_Europe.webp

You stated "Ireland is already bleeding high income earners for everything" not "’Ireland is bleeding high income earners dry" as you're now claiming. These are two completely different statements. Trying to say they're the same really shows the dishonesty of your argument when you're caught out on another factually incorrect claim.

You might claim its an extreme ideology, but I can guarantee you we'll have hugely increased property taxes, with carve outs for lower earners, in Ireland within 10 years. Its already being discussed favourably in both FF & FG internal policy discussions as being an easy, politically popular, revenue raiser. That also has hugely beneficial effects on things like reducing foreign investors squeezing Irish buyers out of the housing market.

Royale with Cheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120611408#Comment_120611408

I'm bidding on a probate sale, it was last lived in November 2022 so nowhere near the two years required to qualify for that grant. The majority of what's for sale at my price point in the areas I'm looking in are new builds or probate sales and I would say hardly any of those probate sales have been vacant for 2+ years. I can't see that grant having a major effect on prices either.

manniot2

I viewed a house yesterday and asked the estate agent how long its vacant. He asked the vendor and he said two years with the exception of a hand full of nights where a relative stayed there. Rang the council and they said that disqualifies it from the grant. Some joke.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120611562#Comment_120611562

Honestly hard to work out if you’re just low IQ or so ideologically driven that you’ll present information in whatever form suits your narrative. Either way there’s no point engaging beyond this but to show how absurd you are.

Chart 1 shows Ireland collects very little income tax…because we have such a progressive tax system where low earners pay close to nothing. Something you want to exacerbate by removing 90% of households from property tax. Genius. This chart actually supports my point and demonstrates the absurdity of your idea. Cheers.

Map shows highest marginal rates. Nothing to do with effective rates on 300k we were discussing. For reference

Ireland - top rate kicks in at €70k

Some of the other highest you’re showing

Austria - €1m

France - €1m

Spain - €300k

Apples with apples alright…

Given FG and FF just this year slashed property taxes massively down to a mere 0.10% im fairly confident they’re unlikely to increase it by a factor of 30 anytime soon, making them by far the highest in the world. If they do I’ll personally call in a give mine to you.

techman1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120608368#Comment_120608368

I noticed that but I thought he was a bit silly to be going very public with the sale. He said now is the time to be putting them up for sale now that the hotel sector is at the top of the cycle.

However if he is saying this surely a potential buyer will be put off because Francis brennan thinks its at the top of the cycle or at least will be driving a hard bargain to reduce the purchase price.

He also admitted to getting into financial difficulties after the 2008 crash and lost alot of money , he had to sell a shareholding in the hotels to the Glen dimplex chief

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612060#Comment_120612060

A bit of lateral thinking on your part, and it may have qualified.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612060#Comment_120612060

Why in God's name did you tell the council that?