Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Brussels Sprout · 04-05-2023 01:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120554048#Comment_120554048

Perun did a great video on the competing interests in Russia between the MoD and the PMCs. Basically it all comes down to Putin's primary goal, which is to stay in power. Having the Wagner group and the Chechen's operate as almost independent armies seems crazy until you realise that it dilutes the strength of the Russian army, thereby reducing the chance of a coup at any point. That's the same reason that Gerasimov and Shoigu have been kept at the top of the army despite the utter shambles that they have presided over - they're loyalists who can be trusted and that's more important to Putin than competence.

Prigozhin understands this dynamic all too well. I'm not sure he has ever actually criticized Putin directly. He instead criticises the Russian MoD and specifically Shoigu. That's entirely allowable under the perverse rules of Kremlin politics.

rogber · 04-05-2023 01:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120553902#Comment_120553902

I agree. false flag makes little sense, if it was the Ukrainians it makes them look pretty incompetent (they were never going to hit Putin at the Kremlin).

I think most likely could be some anti Putin group or individual within Russia itself

Furze99 · 04-05-2023 02:02PM

Lot of nonsense being spouted over this so called Kremlin attack. All that is needed is to juxtapose a photo of a few puffs over the golden palace of Moscow with images of obliterated towns and villages in Ukraine. Utter nonsense.

Gatling · 04-05-2023 02:11PM

Everyones favorite Russian comic on stage at the UN , seriously funny guy

https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1654109805768847361?s=20

Cordell · 04-05-2023 02:32PM

They did carry assignations in NATO countries. They did what can be qualified as a chemical attack in the UK which failed to kill the target but killed a UK citizen. So it's fair to say that they would do it if they would have the chance.

Boggles · 04-05-2023 03:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120554048#Comment_120554048

He hasn't been critical of Putin, he isn't that thick.

The regime have completely turned their back on him though, according to him.

And honestly at this stage I don't think he gives a shite about winning the war, the rhetoric about not been backed daily is more aimed at his own "army" so they don't turn on him or the commanders and more to do with saving face.

The expectation is they will capitulate once the offensive begins, Priogzhin will hot step it the fúck out of there if he is able.

Huge difference between terrorising villagers in Africa and executing rag tag militia and fighting against a committed military machine in Ukraine.

They found out that the extremely hard way.

Good enough for them, may everyone of them be slaughtered. They are no better than ISIS.

Addmagnet · 04-05-2023 03:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120553780#Comment_120553780

Two of his doubles.

Cordell · 04-05-2023 05:28PM

Land "stealing" by war, conquest and colonization was acceptable up to some point, it is not anymore. So please stop with the Texas nonsense, or, if we get there, both US and Mexico should dissolve themselves, give the land back to the natives and jump back in the ocean.

04-05-2023 05:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120554888#Comment_120554888

Russia are short on long-range precision weapons (cruise missiles / ballistic missiles / Shahed-style drones). This is common knowledge. They had a stockpile at the beginning of the invasion, they fired a lot and eventually they expended the stockpile - either to zero or to some limit they won't go below. At that point they can only fire what they manufacture or acquire.

They are not short of non-precision missiles (or "low-precision"). They have a large stockpile of ex-Soviet weapons of all types.

If they have 20 modern cruise missiles (which is approx what they can make each month) and fire them into Ukraine, a good deal will be intercepted. However if they simultaneously fire another 20 old missiles without warheads (decoys), now Ukraine have 40 targets to intercept. It is simply a numbers game, more of the precision missiles will hit their targets. Ukraine have said multiple times Russia are using this tactic.

Something we have seen throughout the war is Russia rummage through their stockpile to see if they have some old stuff that might be useful. Ukraine are doing it also - they tried several times to use Tupolev TU-141 - a 1970s jet reconaissance drone - as cruise missiles.

In WW2 some countries were using late 1800s weapons.

04-05-2023 05:49PM

Must say fair play to Ruth Coppinger for calling out Mick Wallace for being a shill for so many authoritarian regimes.

https://twitter.com/ruthcoppingersp/status/1654138202138058754?s=46

Brussels Sprout · 04-05-2023 05:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555304#Comment_120555304

Nice one. I must admit that I never had any time for her but she has just gone up in my estimation.

Pretty telling that she had to turn the comments off. I'd say there'd be plenty on her "side" who would be furious about that take.

timmyntc · 04-05-2023 06:17PM

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1654163453232152577?cxt=HHwWgoCw5bC54vQtAAAA

more reconnaissance by force from Ukraine.

As i said yesterday, expect more of these small scale probing attacks all along the line of contact until some weak points become evident

04-05-2023 06:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555336#Comment_120555336

+1.

Apart from a few honourable exceptions, I consider alot of people on the Irish left to be geopolitically illiterate.

AerLingus747 · 04-05-2023 06:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120553076#Comment_120553076

I wouldn't say stabilisation... known entity morso.... people know what their aim is, how they operate and how to deal with them....

Unfortunately, they are propping up a number of governments, and if they go, most likely the governments will go with them..

They are a militant force also, which will be replaced by another militant force if they fall, who that will be and their aims are all unknowns...

There will be a power vacuum which will most likely cause civil war in 2 or 3 countries, I'd bank on Burkina Faso and Mali as definite. Mozambique is another possibility, and will be interesting to see how their influence in Madagascar would be filled if they fell.

Not to mention Sudan and CAF where they have a lot of influence....

Would also be interesting to see what would happen in Syria if Russia's main dirty work people stopped do just that...

Even with all the posturing, Russia will lose a lot of ground and influence if Wagner goes under, even if they have failed in Ukraine.

saabsaab · 04-05-2023 06:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555391#Comment_120555391

Some reports say that the main offensive due (in days) has been put back due to bad ground conditions for now?

Boggles · 04-05-2023 06:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555438#Comment_120555438

Russia will lose a lot of ground and influence if Wagner goes under

Russia and Putin are done, Wagner is the least of their worries. But the reality is Russia have more or less abandoned them to slaughter, probably for scape goat reasons.

The best Russia can hope for in the next generation is China use a slight bit of lube when they ride them for everything they are worth. Ditto India.

As the countries in Africa they are at preputial civil war, there will always be someone along to exploit them either by the barrel of the gun or a pen.

Brussels Sprout · 04-05-2023 06:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555393#Comment_120555393

I only learned the word campist last week:

Noun[edit]

campist (plural campists)

Synonym of third-campist
(derogatory, politics, socialism, slang) A leftist who supports any country/organization simply for being opposed to the United States or the West, including authoritarian governments who would otherwise not follow leftist beliefs.

What I have learned in the past year is that the vast majority of the far-left are nothing but campists.

This Russian invasion has been a real litmus test. There's an actual bona-fide fascist dictatorship mounting an invasion of another nation, where they are looking to entrench the rule of oligarchy and kleptocracy, crush human rights and freedom of expression, all egged on by religious zealots. But wait....the USA is backing the other side. "I've heard enough. Case closed! Time to contort myself into a pretzel while I go to bat for the ~~invaders~~ liberators!"

Brussels Sprout · 04-05-2023 07:04PM

There's been another drone attack on Kyiv in the past hour. Pretty amazing footage here of one of them being taken out

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1654183492131999751

junkyarddog · 04-05-2023 07:07PM

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1654165287493566466

They really can't help themselves can they!

junkyarddog · 04-05-2023 07:10PM

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1654147707940765697

Orban talking shite!

Dohnjoe · 04-05-2023 07:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555482#Comment_120555482

That word describes a lot of individuals who used to post here.

Boggles · 04-05-2023 07:11PM

Pity he didn't belt him properly.

Gatling · 04-05-2023 07:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555482#Comment_120555482

I'm liking this

AerLingus747 · 04-05-2023 07:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120555480#Comment_120555480

Hopefully they are done...

However, if a scenario comes in where Prigozhin moves into any sort of political position with whatever happens after a potential Russia/Putin fall, which is quite a likely possibility if certain people replace Putin, Wagner will live on.

I agree on the Africa situation in general, but I do think it's a bit flippant to just write it off as business as usual, Sudan level incidents. Where it's not and has knock on repercussions to Europe, which are not needed, especially at this time.