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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    Yeah, sorry. You implied 1m army. So does Ukraine have a more than 1m soldiers?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,140 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    It's not often I agree with timmyntc, but he's spot on here.

    And there is absolutely no way that China would ever, ever, ever, ever trade their claim over Taiwan for Outer Manchuria. Taiwan and its seas are of immense strategic value, far far more than anything the border regions in the far east have to offer.

    There isn't a hope in hell that Russia will give up land in return for western sanctions being lifted. That would require the complete and utter military and political defeat and occupation of Russia by Ukraine, on the same scale as that of Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan by the Allies, and that is simply not on the cards in this war.

    I'ts been difficult enough to get western sanctions in place during the war. It would be impossible to get all those countries to agree to the dismemberment of Russia being a condition of lifting them - especially if Ukraine achieved it's full liberation. Plenty of countries would see that as being a step far too far. And remember, the sanctions are not absolute. There's loads of countries still fully trading with Russia, and there's still some trade between Russia and even the western countries with the most strict sanctions.

    If you want to engage in fantasy thinking that has at least some possible plausibility, then maybe one could begin to imagine the collapse of the Russian government, and a resulting civil war during which China moves in to "protect" it's interests, investments and migrant workers in the border regions. But there's no way it involves Russia agreeing to it, and there's 100% no way it involves Taiwan being traded for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    When have I ever implied or stated Russia has 1m soldiers in ukraine? Thats nonsense figures



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,140 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    I didn't miss the "dismemberment of Russia" part. I dismissed it out of hand with this statement:

    There isn't a hope in hell that Russia will give up land in return for western sanctions being lifted. That would require the complete and utter military and political defeat and occupation of Russia by Ukraine, on the same scale as that of Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan by the Allies, and that is simply not on the cards in this war.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,140 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    And I covered that in my last statement:

    If you want to engage in fantasy thinking that has at least some possible plausibility, then maybe one could begin to imagine the collapse of the Russian government, and a resulting civil war during which China moves in to "protect" it's interests, investments and migrant workers in the border regions. But there's no way it involves Russia agreeing to it, and there's 100% no way it involves Taiwan being traded for it.

    The point you're missing is that

    • The west unilaterally dismembering Russia as a condition for sanctions being lifted

    and

    • Russia breaking apart in a post-defeat civil war

    Are two completely different things.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,491 ✭✭✭circadian


    If the Russian Federation collapses then China would most certainly consider taking control of the timber/gas/resource rich eastern Russia and probably do so under the similar guise that the Russians used for Eastern Ukraine, that ethnic Chinese were at risk or some similar story.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They have several million Chinese immigrants working and living in Russia,so it's entirely possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,467 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,032 ✭✭✭jmreire


    And not only "released" back into Russian society again but with a personal guarantee from Prigoshin that if they have any problems, he will sort them out fir them. Talk about a License to Kill.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    If Putin's Red Army at any stage in the Ukraine hit between 5 and 10% of what the Soviet Red Army proper killed in Ukraine alone then NATO must get involved and aggressively so, regardless of the consequences.


    It is probably not possible for Putin's Russia to even come close to it. That's a reflection on the scale of murder and savagery of the older Red Army.


    Putin and Shoigu were soft compared to even Gorbachev, who oversaw the killing of between 2 and 5 million civilians in just Afghanistan alone.


    He was the friendly face of Soviet Russia and the relaxed man who wound it down eventually, by Soviet standards he was a dove and he was.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,032 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Prigoshin and his Wagnerites are just another branch of Putin mafia, nothing more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,592 ✭✭✭Cordell


    That's not the chinese way, especially with a nuclear power. They will do it by economic means (including buying politicians), just like they're currently doing it in Africa.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭Mike3549




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,032 ✭✭✭jmreire


    This drone incident and wild accusations are as much an excuse for Vladimir to tighten up restrictions on Russian citizens as much as anything. It will give him the right to really tighten the screws on them, as if they were not tight enough as it is, and with the May Victory Day fast approaching. Worrying times for Vladimir. And as a bonus, he gets to throw mud at not only at Zelensky, but the west and the US as well. But one question remains..just how many Russians believe him now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,592 ✭✭✭Cordell


    I think they really need to say it was the americans, that is a much bigger and stronger enemy. It would be humiliating and basically to accept they are weak to admit that Ukrainians were able to fly a drone to that place.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,622 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Some posters seem to think it is a false flag. I don't buy this, as the image of a drone getting anywhere near the Kremlin makes Russia look incredibly weak and it is humiliating. A drone or whatever it was would never get that close to the White House.

    Of course it suits Ukraine to deny it was them, they don't attack Russia directly, yet have saboteurs conducting secret missions on the border and inside Russia. Russia won't go nuclear, so there threats in response to this attack are rather empty ,as it seems they can't carry out a successful strike on Kyiv due to the modern air defenses systems Ukraine has now. Which yet again demonstrates by and large conventional Russian military equipment is no match for the West. Perhaps their hypersonic missile is the exception, but they have very little of those



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The problem is there has been several videos of drones flying over Moscow recently, no big deal, well with the exception of Russia recently placing pansir Air defense systems on top of buildings in and around the Kremlin and close to it , Along with their nuclear air defense systems already surrounding the capital,

    It would be next to impossible to put any sizable aircraft or drone over Moscow without getting taken down , then came the video which itself is comedy gold,and Russias statement of they used electronic anti drone systems to take down the drone,

    It's all Kremlin propaganda and nothing more



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,467 ✭✭✭zv2


    Why was Putin up on the roof in the first place?

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭ Willow Fat Neckerchief


    Chay Bowes move to the dark side is now complete. Now shamelessly retweeting Russian propaganda.

    chaybowes.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,622 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I still don't subscribe to this view, as the image it conveys is of Russian impotence. Cast your mind back to the recent recruitment propaganda campaign, it underscores how Russia is obsessed with projecting an image of strength and vitality, an enemy missile or drone flying close to the Kremlin projects an image of weakness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,622 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Hilarious Zv2. I don't believe it was an attempt to kill Putin, rather psychological warfare to remind Putin and Russia that we can bring the war to you. It's timing close to the Victory day parade is no coincidence in that regard.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Exactly,

    But ask why the Russians keep saying that the Ukrainans tried to kill putin at his residence, the Russians and would Know putin doesn't live in ybe the Kremlin, from what I can gather he's only been to the Kremlin several times this year, usually at night and with a massive convoy,

    If this was ukraine why would they deny it ,it was be a huge propaganda coup saying we can get you in Moscow and anywhere else in Russia,but no they are coming out and saying it's nothing to do with us ,

    The other option is the start of an internal power struggle inside of the Kremlin, putin will likely stay inside his bunker for the foreseeable future, making him look weak Just as much as Russia



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,467 ✭✭✭zv2


    I suspect he sent one of his doubles up to the roof first, to see what happens.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    He drank the Kool-Aid a long long time ago.

    He's married to a Russian and has lived there. He's even been interviewed on RT.

    His twitter feed has been an absolute dumpster fire during this invasion.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I agree. All this does is make Russia look incompetent (because they are).

    If Russia has expertise in anything its the old false flag op - they'll gladly murder scores of their own citizens in the process. If an apartment block in Russia explodes I'll listen to the false flag theory, but I just can't see how it makes sense here.



  • Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭ Willow Fat Neckerchief


    "He's even been interviewed on RT."

    Isn't he working for RT's Indian operation now?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,023 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Prigozhin is not some generic businessman who can easily be chucked out of a window, he has his own private army. He's also, so far, been useful to the regime. Although it's definitely an odd relationship.

    He is critical of Putin, but more from a "wants to win the war" sense, which is non-threatening to Putin. Prigozhin also randomly comes out with his own ridiculous propaganda. It's a strange one, I think as long as he keeps providing meat for the fodder, then the regime will forgo his occasional outbursts.



This discussion has been closed.
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