Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Trying to look on the bright side...seems to be some more positive "noise" on that EU shell purchase now anyway.

As regards France "blocking" stuff here, no member can dictate to other member states what they spend their own defence budget on. However it makes complete sense to me that the collective EU money should be used to create self sufficiency into the future vs buying a one off stock or building up the capacity in weapons makers located outside the EU.

If countries think it will be faster and wish to go and buy shells from a country outside EU/EEA (I wonder who are non EU "friends" who would be willing to draw such large amounts from their own stockpiles or have that kind of production available that are not already heavily supporting Ukraine?) I don't think France or anyone else can stop them.

That's being discussed since March,but yet still nothing is happening,

One of the issues I touched on there's not a huge number of companies who make artillery shells, if everyone starts to make individual orders on top of a large group orders you end up with bottle neck and supply issues ,it Also wouldn't make sense if Europe got together and wants to order 1 billion euros in artillery shells but one of several others decide to go with small individual orders it would cost them more in the long run,

The Ukrainans are asking the EU for 250,000 155 artillery shells per month that's 3 million shells per year

Imagine waking up in the morning and finding a rocket in your garden,and your neighbor is telling you it's not a rocket it's one of them Russian ICBMs, worth a few quid on ebay

The offensive has started already, but its not going to be 160,000 men and tanks all rolling forward as the vanguard of some kind of march to melitopol.

Ukraine should have numerical superiority at this stage, so the "reconnaissance in force" we are seeing already near Orekhiv and Huliapole is just the beginning. They will have probing attacks all along the line of contact in Zaporozhia and as soon as one is successful in breaking through the first line of defence (or even just identifies a weak point) they will likely direct the bulk of their force through that point then.

We could have (2 more ;) ) weeks of limited skirmishes all along the line of contact before any big offensive moves are made

I don't think "nothing is happening". I get what you are saying about how action really needs to be coordinated for efficiency and speed, but the EU is not a country, and generally cannot act fast in a manner like that beyond its competencies.

Defence, security is probably the most difficult thing on which to fully trust others and combine efforts. It is only happening at all in the EU under severe duress, fear + external pressure (the actions of Putin and Russia). I don't think any of the members really want it (edit: well maybe France but probably preferably "on their terms" like everyone else).

I mean they don't seem to trust each other sufficiently on such matters yet, would say most of them still trust the US more as regards security/defence than any fellow EU member and I think that goes for the Western EU members vs their Eastern allies (as well as the more oft brought up mistrust of France/Germany when it comes to Russia by the former Warsaw pact members).

The whole Zaporizhzhia plant is filled with explosives and ammunitions ,

Which makes an attack or assault on the plant impossible without risking a catastrophic event

The retaliation has been planned far in advance of the provocation., which was the staged drone attack on the Kremlin, which has ( as planned ) morphed into an attack by Ukraine on a Head of State, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. And thereby justifying retaliation.

Again, there is no legacy to respect and preserve in regards to the Red Army and Russian involvement in WWII in general. So if something can be interpreted as some insult to Red Army, so be it, it's well deserved. Half of Europe went from German occupation to Russian occupation, resulting in 50 years of communism which was not far from fascism, and in some cases, worse. Russians and their Red Army had their own genocides and ethnic cleansings and death camps.

They are already bombing Ukraine's capital city so what else should they do?

Maybe this? ( taken from TheValeyard's post Nr 85972 with apologies to TheValeYard)

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1653851910548406272

Good long read here in The Atlantic from Anne Applebaum and Jeffrey Goldberg.

The Counteroffensive.

"The future of the democratic world will be determined by whether the Ukrainian military can break a stalemate with Russia and drive the country backwards—perhaps even out of Crimea for good".

Archive Link: https://archive.ph/TuA5y

I see on bbc news of a drone strike on the Kremlin

A fantasy thought entered my head this morning. If this Ukrainian counteroffensive proves successful and Crimea is taken together with the Donbass what if the the dismemberment of Russia is then presented as an option for the lifting of sanctions. The West could say to China, take all your old Russian territories back but acknowledge the independence of Taiwan and lay no further claim to it.

Sudan has been at some sort of Civil conflict since the 50s, this is just the latest flare up.

The idea that Wagner are some sort of stabilising outfit is quite remedial.

They are nothing more than a thieving, murdering organised crime gang which are state sponsored. The sooner they are labelled a terrorist one the better.

But again, this isn't just my opinion.

“We are approaching the point that private military company Wagner is running out, and private military company Wagner, in some short time, will cease to exist,” Prigozhin said. “We’ll go into history — but it’s all right, such things happen.”

The Russian Defence Ministry has seized supplying them with anything approaching adequate weaponry and according to Prigozhin the Kremlin are no longer communicating with him. They are just above worthless at this stage.

These are not honourable soldiers, they will turn like we saw a couple of months ago when a commander got beaten to death by his own men with shovels, presumably because they didn't have any ammo.