Russia - threadbanned users in OP

If the BBC has verified over 21k Russian deaths you can be guaranteed there is at least multiple times that. The Ukrainian figure doesn't look so far fetched especially when that includes LPR, DPR and Wagner convicts.

it certainly does not help when the general in charge of tank production is stealing the engines......And its a fair assumption that he is not the only one, and that this activity applies to all production of everything in Russia...after all hasn't the top man, Putin being doing it since he came to power?

A Russian army commander has been accused of stealing engines from Putin's prized T-90 tanks, report says (businessinsider.nl)

History lesson (Russia is not a real country)

According to several news outlets today a Ukraine counter could start any moment but all also point out that allies are growing more and more alarmed that Ukraine just does not have the capacity for it to be successful no matter how well planned and intentioned. They may be privately pushing them not to do it given how grim the consequences of failure could be - the loss of manpower, equipment, major weakening of current Ukrainian lines...

By far the biggest decision of the war seems to be imminent.

Elements of the counter offensive started a couple of weeks ago.

Ukraine worked miracles last year with far lees than what it now has, the Orcs, on the other hand, did atrociously last year with far more than what they now have.

You have an amazing ability to add 2 + 2 and get -7.

The biggest decision that would make a difference to the outcome of this conflict would be the provision of 4th gen western fighter aircraft that could take on SU-35s and the like - but I somehow doubt that is the decision you were alluding to, if you were referring to a decision, rather than an event.

There is nothing to challenge. The reality on the ground is as it is. The mismatch between Russian and Ukranian forces is vast. The Ukranian are facing a force that now numbers almost 400,000 in the occupied territories.

It's delusional to think the Russians are going to be somehow expelled from what they have captured.

To begin a concerted counter offensive is an enormous risk.

This war will end in a negotiated settlement one way or the other as of now.

I think Ukraine should go for peace now with a proposed counter offensive as a piece of leverage rather than roll the dice and try frantically to sue for peace with Russian forces on their way to Kiev.

The concern about Ukraine's situation regarding a counter offensive found it's way in to the public domain through leaks which were stark in terms of warning how an offensive is likely to go

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/30/ukraine-primed-for-crucial-offensive

That's not to say miracles can't happen but given the fortification Russia has put in place (more reminiscent of WW1) there is not going to be some lightning gain of territory by Ukraine like last time.

I am not sure how you can come to such a conclusion.

In the last six months that frontlines have barely moved and a lot of the Russian combat potential has been destroyed attacking prepared Ukrainian defences. At the rate the Russians are going, it'll take about 6 months before they can even begin to threaten Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, and if Bakhmut was anything to go by, perhaps another six months to take it. I think another attempt to take Kyiv is literally the last thing on the list of Russian priorities.

I hope it wasn't for the Chesney Hawkes reference - that was brilliant.

You have a point but it is worth noting as well that the Russian forces are badly equipped, poorly led and ill resourced. Never mind motivation.

The next 12 months will be much more brutal for Ukraine's forces than the last 12. That's just the reality of war and going from defense to offensive operations in urban areas against a large dug in force.

My take is fu78 peace talks, Western Europe should be accelerating arms production and supply but the leadership of most of Europe have very different ideas on that, especially the countries where most weaponry manufacturing is.

Like the shortfall in shells for Ukraine. Smart ammunition is great but they will also need to pound entire towns in to rubble to take them back as well. Firing, 30, 40, 50 thousand shells a day.

Peace talks will only reward the Reds.

Europe must also plan for further conflicts.

Not exactly

They'll get to Kyiv to sign the surrender Treaty, accept responsibility and pay reparations to Ukraine.

Things are difficult for normal Ukrainians. That said, theyve shown they are made of tough stuff.

That's the thing, they lived through wars and Soviet occupation,and some people will always tell us about corruption ,but the people survived day and day out,

Even after the invasion 9 years ago they didn't break hence the reason putin went all out to destroy Mariupol

Part 5 of Lindybeige's excellent interview series with returning AFU Foreign Legion volunteer, Joe McDonald.

Not true unfortunately,