Scottish independence

A party which has governed well for two terms is quite likely to be returned for a third by a grateful electorate, but often the quality of governance in the third term will start to slip (and things tend to go to hell altogether in the fourth term, if there is one).

Your point about political renewal in European countries is a good one. I think the ways in which political renewal is acheived in those countries is not just constantly shifting coalitions (which can facilitate a kind of "rolling renewal") but also changing parties. One of the things that characterises UK (and to some extent Irish) politics is the extraordinary longevity of political parties. The Conservatives have been one of the two dominant political parties in the UK pretty much since the UK became a semi-democracy in the late nineteenth century; the Labour party are relative newcomers but have been the other dominant party for a century. This is become the UK electoral system strongly entrenches the established parties, regardless of how dysfunctional they may become.

Few other European democracies have dominant parties which endure for so long. Parties merge, or split, or are refounded, or are superseded, with relative frequency. For example, if we look at the top four parties in the French National Assembly, they were founded in 2016 (La République En Marche), 1972 (Rassemblement National, founded as Front National), 2016 (La France Insoumise) and 2002 (Les Républicains, founded as Union pour un mouvement populaire). Of course they all had predecessor parties and their first leaders and members of parliament came from those parties, but the foundation of new parties still allows for the injection of new ideas and (just as important) the abandonment of old ones.

Impossible to say at this point; we'll need to see what emerges over the next weeks and months.

To be honest, perhaps the best thing that could happen to the SNP would be to be ejected from office fairly quickly, so that they can have a term in opposition which would give them an opportunity to address some of their internal problems, acknowledge errors, get rid of some undesirable elements, etc. They could then make a fist of presenting themselves as a renewed party at the following Scottish election.

But that's unlikely. The next election isn't due until 2026, so we are looking at another three years of the SNP trying to govern while being subjected to long-drawn out investigations, quite possibly prosecutions, and a lot of relentless scrutiny, all of which will require them to be very defensive. That won't improve the quality of their governance, and it is not the ideal climate in which do the kind of self-overhaul that they could do in opposition. After three years of that they could be looking like a very stale offering.

It was revealed recently that the SNP doesn't currently have auditors - that was bad enough but then it emerged that the Auditors had resigned last September. When asked about this, Humza Yousaf said that:

he had not been aware of the issue until he became leader, adding that "it would have been helpful to have known beforehand" and that "there should have been more transparency around the party finances".

Similarly, when asked about the motorhome that the party bought, he said that he had found out about it:

"Shortly after I became leader of the party".

So either Nicola Sturgeon is after leaving him the biggest pile of dung to deal with, or his claims of ignorance beggar belief.

SNP treasurer arrested for questioning now.

Nicola and her activist type fans and friends have a lot to answer for

What's the betting Humza will end up in the House of lords at some point.

The SNP is basically finished.

Sturgeon has been playing the great Independence Swindle to cover up her own incompetence. She kept a believe alive letting her voters to focus on something which will never happen whilst having the freedom of being a failure domestically. In domestic politics she has the worst record, but still talking about glorious independence. Finance scandal, arrests, some form of obvious feelings of nepotism between her and her husband, and the worst domestic record, NHS Scotland, high drug death rate, lower life expectancy than the rest of the UK, - and they still keep the independence talk alive, even though the supreme court has ruled against it.

I also find it incredible having no financial auditor for nearly half a year, and pretending not knowing about it. Hamza Yusuf doesn't know anything about that one, is a bit hard to believe.

Scotland would really be more of a failed state if the country became independent with the SNP.

"Basically finished"? OK, care to make any predictions based on that? Like for the next Westminster (due 2025) or Scottish Parliament (due 2026) or local (due 2027) elections?

We're an awful long way from any of those.

I know, but if the scandals with the SNP do continue there will be calls for an early election. It was mentioned as a possibility by Scottish Labour even today.

Suppose there are further arrests? Suppose this goes on and on? Suppose this goes further, court dates and convictions? Ultimately it's a credibility question. As far as I know, even if there were early elections they would still have elections in 2026.

Maybe my opinion is biased. I never liked Scottish independence, I think it's economically impossible and based on false hopes and historical events, even going back more than 300 to 400 years. I also never liked populism and blinding voters from the reality. Other than constantly speaking about independence, the SNPs record on domestic Scottish matters is abysmal. Education, Health are a pure failure plus Scotland has the highest drug overdoses in Europe and life expectancy is also not exactly in the top ranks.

The Scots just don't want to see it, they focus on medieval history and are blinded by the reality and act like as if they were a depressed minority.

The Welsh got that a bit better, they focus on retaining more their own culture, their language, within the UK and not having that loudmouthed nonsense the SNP is constantly proclaiming.

The SNP is a strange combination of nationalism and left-socialism which certainly won't work if it was an independent country. As long as they get money from London to pay for all that, but that's something their voters don't want to hear.

The carnage in Britain since 2014

I mean Scotland is also the one functional economic area of the UK outside of London so they deserve credit there. It was the one area that could have considered independence. The rest of the country has had economic growth focused on London.

I can't see why there would be an early election. Labour didn't get one when the UK was nearly crippled financially by a PM in a matter of days so it seems like not much would cause an early election in the UK.

It really is a pity there is no serious alternative that would be focused on Scotland. Scotland now will either vote back in the SNP after all the scandals or vote in parties that will gladly sacrifice Scotland's interests for Londons. Not a great choice.