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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    If 60k leave every year then there are approximately 840k in school system primary and secondary (14 years) and 120k ish in university.

    Lets call it a million, 10 billion a year for 1 million in full time education is 10k a year each year, so 200k in education for 20 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    First we are going to cut the wages of the civil servants, and then the IT workers. Is that what you want :)



  • Posts: 573 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Is any of the information you posted about the public sector factual or just an opinion?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    There have been lots of layoffs in the IT sector and if the company does not make a profit then you can bet that the employees of that company will not be getting a payrise the same cannot be said for civil servants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Its all there in the figures for pay and inflation over the last decade.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Why did you have to quote fliball123 :)

    I have him on ignore. Why? Because all of his posts are going off on one about the public sector. They just werent making any sense so I put him on ignore. Even though all I saw was a blank post I knew full well it was some rant about the public sector. which i now see when you quoted him. I can do without seeing them honestly :)

    Just to be clear though, I am private sector myself but there is some serious thinly veiled jealousy out there for certain sectors. That kind of stuff is best just avoided altogether. Once you start engaging with them there will be a flood of more rants and then what was an interesting conversation is ruined.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    You put me on ignore because you went down the path of trying to ridicule me and when I gave you links to all the data that backed up everything that I had stated you took your ball and went home, not that you will read this maybe someone can quote me on this please so DBTG can see what I said :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    It's not surprising they got pay increases for 6 or 7 years after the troika were in to claw back some of the massive austerity pay cuts some of which were temporary, also a huge new tax/pension deduction on salary was introduced to pay for the same pension they were already getting which is another pay cut relative to pre austerity.

    You can't compare private and public sector jobs like they are the same, you need to compare by role and qualifications required etc.

    20% higher means nothing, you may as well say HSE doctors get paid 20% more than barristas. Does that 20% include bonuses, tips, cash jobs, tax avoidance patent schemes etc.?

    The public sector is open to everyone, if they get such an amazing deal people can just join.

    Recent public sector pay increases have been nowhere near keeping track of inflation, they are not 'near inflation' levels.

    52% of public sector salary increases for people on the higher rate go straight back to the exchequer (never leaves in the first place) and another large chunk goes back in a pension deduction, which is essentially a new public sector tax brought in post troika, because when it came in it didn't add anything to existing pension benefits. You might be surprised to hear that the public sector is also made up of TAX PAYERs and they are paying a bigger percentage of their salary to the exchequer than anyone else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Ah this auld chestnut of an argument. We seem to be able to compare salaries in the 2 sectors when government parties are buying votes and it inflates public sector pay like benchmarking (Twice). Also the point has to be made our nearest neighbors the UK this gap is not there. Why is that? We have the tail wagging the dog here. As for the cuts the troika introduced it was clear that our public sector had been bloated with regards to their pay/pensions and perks and they had no skin in the game.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    Are you seriously holding the UK up as a target for policy? I have to stop typing now my sides hurt too much 🤣

    You're free to move to the UK you know, and see your TAX spent wisely!



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  • Posts: 573 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm sure it is and that's why you backed up your opinion with facts pulled from these figures? Excluding the last 2 years inflation has been practically 0% for 9 years so any increase pay would have to be above inflation rates. Post croke park agreement and pre the 2022 increase has there been any significant increase for the majority civil servants?

    If the state pay 20% more for the same roles I think I'll have to apply myself.

    Is it not the case that new civil servants contribute towards their own pension now?

    Was there not the croke park agreement when the state was in a spot of bother with its finances?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The case with regards to public sector pensions is the majority of public sector workers including new recruits come no where paying the full costs of their public sector pension. They contribute more than they did but it still falls short. As for pay rises you only have to look at the continued upward cost of servicing public sector pay and pensions from 2013 to 2022 to see that were were pay rises mainly via increments going on but in the land of the public sector an increment is not seen as pay rise yet it all has to be paid for from the tax payers pocket or from borrowing and that borrowing is going to be squarely biting the tax payer in the hole as debt is rolled over to the new higher interest rates



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Some major troll feeding going on here. Knew the thread would be ruined. Is this not about the property market?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Fair enough the below link is a pdf to IMF report on countries pay gap between public and private. On page 12 a list of developed countries Ireland is right over on the right hand side as it has the highest pay gap between the 2 sectors why are our public servants the l'oriel of the the developed world :) . So if you think the UK are in the crapper how's about we follow the much heralded Scandinavian countries who have been talked about as the model for everyone to follow and who have a pay differential that shows the private sector are paid more??

    Now deal with the figures no sh1tting about moving to the UK or applying for a job in the public sector or blocking me. The fact is we pay an awful lot for our public services and servants both working and retired and yet we have things like feck all housing, a litany of scandals from garda blowing into their own breathalyzers to people being killed by due to mass misdiagnosis and of course the absolute sh1tshow that are our A&Es on a daily basis, to to mention the buffoonery of having green tinted policies like upping taxes on petrol and deisel making it more expensive for anyone living outside of the 4/5 major cities (so the majority of the population) more expensive to get to work and they have not bothered to provide a valid public transport alternatives. I could go on and on I await your response.

    Also this topic is very applicable to the issue outlined in the Opening post. As if we were not paying our public sector this premium then prices would drop due to a curtail in demand via affordability.


    https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2023/English/wpiea2023064-print-pdf.ashx



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    You're getting very good at taking what I say and running with it ;)

    No I'm not saying that. I'm merely saying that higher wages don't happen in a vacuum.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    I asked you for the figures on the pension benefits versus what was paid in pension deductions that you had very precise claims on?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Its the nature of these pensions its defined benefit which is very rare now in the private sector as I said the pension levy went some way to cover some of the costs but that has been eradicated over the years. You only have to ask why the IMF made the government impose such a levy if public servants were paying the full cost?. New recruits do cover more of the cost of their pensions but the actual actuarial total costs of funding these pensions is not fully covered by what is paid in and the amount given in each pension goes up with each one of these pay rises to both existing and future public sector pensioners.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    If the pension levy is up to 20% of someone's salary and the public private premium is 20% that alone would explain it.

    Do other countries have the same levy, the UK, Scandinavian countries?

    As for the IMF study there are a tonne of things within a country that might be different, including the above, the paper you linked is not about estimating the public private premium (it just reports them 'as per IMF calculations'). It reports that the premia are cyclical and it shows that for Ireland are more heavily weighted toward unskilled workers in the public sector being paid more, possibly because in the private sector comparable unskilled workers get over 20% of their income paid in cash, tips etc. and it isn't accurately reported.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Will you come on and stop spinning. We have a country renowned for being highly educated record numbers going to third level and of course the high tech, pharma and high paying jobs its the main reason why our immigration numbers inverted back in 2014/15 when foreigners were seeing these jobs and wanted to get in on the act and you think we have more unskilled workers than all other countries. Come on nice try but come on. Every country has some element of paid in cash and tips, etc I mean that would be mainly the hospitality sector and countries like Spain, Portugal ye know countries that actually get a decent summer would be getting paid in cash and tips etc a lot more than in Ireland.. I didn't check on the nature of the other countries pensions with regards to how its paid. Also the pension levy has never been anywhere near 20% of a public servants salary. So your argument fails right there



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭combat14


    trouble in REIT property paradise.?!


    Major Ires Reit shareholder demands company be taken private .. after years of poor performance as a listed company.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    My argument is that you can't state that the public sector are 20% better paid than the private sector without a tonne of data to back that comparison up, and you need to make all sorts of adjustments for things like pension levies, unreported income etc.

    Posting a non peer reviewed report that has an estimate of a public-private premium for Ireland that just says 'as calculated by the IMF' isn't that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Have them added to my watch list.

    They are below ipo price and purchased alot of their property during the recovery period. 20% internal ownership with only 90 employees. Gearing ratio 43%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 172 ✭✭Beigepaint


    A lot of out of date info in this thread with the grandads out in force.

    Public pensions were gutted in 2013.

    If we are concerned about wasting money on Irish people having a decent quality of life we should start with raising the pension age to 70.

    Better yet let’s discuss property instead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Will you give over the majority of those working in the private sector cant afford to put anything by for a pension when compared to the public sector not to mention if they do its at the whim of any government to raid when times get tough which happened before and the IMF are after putting the figures together showing the premium and the CSO data backs it up when you look at the average wage across the 2 sectors. I didn't make the figures up if you want to drill into it and come back with a study on the black economy in all other counties and how is skews our private sector wages then do so but I would hazard a guess there is a degree of this in all countries. I gave you a comparison done from 2 independent body the IMF and the CSO and instead of accepting that this is the way it is people will come with all kinds of spin to deflect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    You don't have to look at other countries, you are the one citing IMF reports that compare across countries.

    My point is simple and you can just compare within Ireland, if the difference is driven by unskilled workers in both (as per your IMF report), and unskilled workers in the private sector get 20% of their pay unreported in cash, tips etc. or they get bonuses that don't factor in the salary figures, that would explain it.

    Show me someone working in IT in the public sector that is getting paid 20% more than someone doing the same job in the private sector (including bonus, share options and any tax free patent schemes etc.) and I'll believe you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 613 ✭✭✭BoxcarWilliam99


    What platform are you using . Degiro most likely



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    We have more skilled workers in this country as I said we are renowned for our highly educated work force one of the many reasons why a lot MNCs and a lot of foreign workers have come to this country. The figures of corpo tax show the MNCs who have relocated here and set up and the numbers of migration inwards show the workers coming in to take up these jobs.

    The countries in the comparison have roughly the same % of unskilled workers and they would also get the same unreported pay in cash and tips unless you can prove otherwise?

    Also every other country like the Scandinavian countries and the UK would have IT workers in both sectors yet there is not a 20% pay differential when the average is looked at.

    We can only see the data that is present in both the IMF report and the CSO report (2 independent bodies with zero skin in the game) so what does it show.

    It shows 20% differential between the 2 sectors in Ireland

    It shows Ireland as having the highest differential in all countries.

    It has no stat on black market activity. - This is you guessing and believing Ireland is somehow an outlier with regards to money taken in under the table without paying tax. Show me the proof of this vs the other countries outlined in the IMF report.

    It has no stat on skilled vs unskilled yet again you are guessing and then forget that the same differential is probably the same in other countries as well. Once again can you show me proof of this?

    What I can point to with regards to the skilled vs unskilled is the many multinational companies that have set up here and the fact that our tax system takes in a very high amount of income tax annually and those on the lower end pay little or nothing towards income tax which would skew the numbers that have a skilled job so we have more skilled than unskilled. I can point to our record levels of graduates from third level over the last 2 decades as well.

    So prove that Ireland is an outlier with regards to black market activity compared to other countries named in the IMF report and prove that we are awash with unskilled labour in the private sector compared to the other countries outlined in the IMF report. Otherwise your guessing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,222 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Can you drop the public sector pay and pensions ranting - permanently - please. This is far from the first time you've gone down that rabbit hole, and it isn't relevant to the thread to begin with.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Degiro

    revolut for currency, might be worthwhile to get the 7euro pm premium plan



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