Russia - threadbanned users in OP

10-04-2023 02:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461555#Comment_120461555

Russia have a population thats 5 times larger than Ukraine,5 times larger Army,5 times more armoured vehicles and tanks,5 times larger airforce,10 times more artillery 20 times more missiles

How long its sustainable is up to the russian people,but they are under constant propaganda and misinformation from Kremlin,so i have my doubts.

Thats Putins goal of the war of attrition,to dry Ukraine for resources

Dohnjoe · 10-04-2023 02:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461547#Comment_120461547

You are misunderstanding both sources. There is large consensus among EU citizens.

Individual countries, e.g. Bulgaria, Serbia have always shown middling support, the average across Europe is high (taking into account everyone)

timmyntc · 10-04-2023 02:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461559#Comment_120461559

Polls always sample a small subset of population in order to estimate support across that population.

Polls do not ask 100s of thousands of people for this kind of thing. It simply doesn't happen. Polling methodology has been done with only samples of 1000-10000 people for decades, and it has been proven reliable.

briany · 10-04-2023 02:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461487#Comment_120461487

How has attrition worked out well for Russia? Are they in Kyiv? No. Have they taken the whole of the Donbas? No. Have they even taken the whole of Bakhmut, after throwing god knows how much at it for the better part of a year? No. This is nothing like where they expected to be a year into this. Frankly, I think Putin expected to have a pencil holder made of Zelenskyy's head by this time and for all mentions of Ukraine to be edited from Russian history books.

The iron rain that seemed like it would enable the Russians to slowly grind its way westward last summer has ceased. This will be a clue to what Russian shell stocks are and would be a microcosm of its ammo situation as a whole. A country that has to go cap in hand to Iran and North Korea and is taking the mothballs off of WW2 era tanks is not one that could be said to be doing terrifically on the ammo and equipment fronts.

And if NATO must hold some ammunition in reserve, then so must Russia. After all, it has much territorial interest to maintain apart from its ambitions within Ukraine.

And if we look at the political situation in Russia, you have bloggers blowing up and open bickering between factions of its military. It is the case in dictatorships like Russia that dissent is ruthlessly suppressed. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist, though. That means it is driven underground. You won't see the real cracks until it is far too late for Putin.

While Putin may be willing to fling any number of Russian bodies at Ukraine, the Russian bodies themselves are not uniformly willing to be flung.

Christy42 · 10-04-2023 02:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461446#Comment_120461446

If polls depend on who you ask than ignoring one is not ignoring the will of the people and your previous statement was wildly OTT. Especially as you were very definitive that your poll was definitive about the feelings of the US public.

Support is unlikely to drop. The economy is pretty irrelevant for it, the US had a recession in 2008 with the rest of the world and pumped money into Iraq and the middle east. It is being used as a political football by the Republicans. If they find a new one in the space of the economy than opposition will fade as people forget about the money being spent there. If support would stop they would whip their crowd into arguing the Dems are weak on Putin so there really is little risk of the US backing out barring a massive recession, even then it is unlikely either party would want to seem weak by removing aid.

Finally even looking at the poll itself I don't see anything on the don't knows to know what the %s would be with them discounted, the lowest support with don't know's included is 46% so certainly no member state is particularly against it. It seems pretty unlikely that EU support will stop any time soon.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 10-04-2023 02:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461584#Comment_120461584

The Europa release claims large support in all EU states.

It should read large support in many EU member states and not in others.

That's how I would read it

10-04-2023 03:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461591#Comment_120461591

Thats not the point of the Putins war of attrition,its to drain Ukraine and western support for manpower,ammunition,missiles,artillery,tanks,fighter jets untill they run out or simply cant provide anymore support,and then set in the final offensive.

And ever since Stalin,Russia dont care about losses,they can make up their own numbers as they please,and anyone protesting,well we know what happens to them.

Ramasun · 10-04-2023 03:01PM

Are the Russians not able to access that massive ammo dump in Moldova or is it just unusable junk waiting to be safely decommissioned?

macraignil · 10-04-2023 03:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461582#Comment_120461582

Before the moskovyte attack on Ukriane the figures for their population was 43.79million in 2021 as compared to the population of the russian federation in the same year of 143.4million. This does not equate to 5 times larger which would require russia to have a population of over 200million.

I have already posted numbers recorded of destroyed moskovyte equipment in Ukriane so I think any advatage they may have had there has also been seriously eroded and the fact they have been shown to be pulling out of storage 70 year old tanks is evidence for this.

Again I must say that I think the end of this conflict is not likely to be just down to the russian people as you like to say. It's just my opinion from what I have seen so far in the actions of the people of Ukraine to stand up to the moskovytes but I think their determination to be free from putin is stronger than any desire from the moskovytes to build an empire for their leader.

It is not just the resources you have listed that will have an impact in the long term if this conflict drags on but the economic strength of both sides and before the war escalated the moskovyte share of global GDP was just 3% with the GDP of the EU, USA, UK and other countries backing Ukraine many times this figure.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 10-04-2023 03:07PM

I assume you are aware that the term "moskovyte" just means someone from Moscow.

Like calling the Irish military Dubs or Kerrymen etc

10-04-2023 03:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461644#Comment_120461644

Well 4-5 times larges,peanuts if you ask me,you get my point,they are larger in all aspects

The Reason why they pulled out 70 years old tanks are part of the war of attrition,to sacrifice those for destroyed Ukrainan equipment.

Even if it takes 5 to destroy one Leopard or 8 to destroy one challenger or 10 to destroy one Abrams,doesnt matter when you have 800 of them.

Thats what Putins war of attrition is about,to drain Ukraine for equipment,untill they run out of western tanks,anti tank missiles etc etc

And hope that western support lose interest because it costs money and their own stocks run low,budgets politics etc etc

Ramasun · 10-04-2023 03:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461658#Comment_120461658

No, it's more like Irish Americans calling themselves Irish.

briany · 10-04-2023 03:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461627#Comment_120461627

Russia don't have enough for a 'final offensive'. The equipment isn't there and the logistics are not there. If Russia couldn't overwhelm Ukraine at the beginning of this war when Ukraine by all metrics were dwarfed by Russia in terms of armaments and personnel, then how would anyone expect them to do it later on after having their own draining? Russia are not the kings of attrition warfare, either, and it's hardly as if they're undefeated in wars throughout their modern history.

And, actually, it' Putin who doesn't care about losses (ostensibly), and he has that luxury sitting in his dacha. The Russian people aren't necessarily going to feel the same way. Russia, as a whole, was prepared to make heavy sacrifices in WW2 because every man jack in the country knew that the war was an existential one. That is not true for Russia's attempt upon Ukraine. It's Russia's Vietnam. A folly. Thousands of people coming back of a given week in body bags for what? For what?

Wolf359f · 10-04-2023 03:25PM

Must be a slow day when people are debating polls. I'm sure people loose interest when there's a lul on the battlefield. If the Ukrainian counter offensive makes key gains, you will see more support. I'd say it's hard for some Americans to fully back Ukraine when they don't see gains on the battlefield etc...

Anyways, you can pretty much see Russia have gained very very little territory in the past 12 months. Their 'winter/spring offensive' was a flop.

10-04-2023 03:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461685#Comment_120461685

Thats what everyone have been saying since the start of the invasion,still Russia is pouring in more manpower and old tanks each time

And you be surprised when you have a imaginary enemy like NATO what support you can get in Russia

Thats why the focus in Ukraine went from Ukraine only to involve NATO in the russian propaganda.

They won the war off attrition vs Finland in 1939 taking heavy casulties too remember,allthough Finland still kept their independence and freedom.

And Finland didnt get as much support as Ukraine is getting

macraignil · 10-04-2023 03:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461674#Comment_120461674

Look at the actual population numbers I posted. 4 times the population is also wrong just like the 5 times you tried to post initially. From what I can see besides having a larger stock pile of out of date military equipment the only thing larger for the moskovytes side invading Ukraine is the land area they control is larger than any other country even before they have decided they needed to cease more at the price of killing thousands and making millions homeless in a country that they agreed by treaty not to attack. The numbers of anti tank weapons in Ukraine is multiples of the total number of tanks the moskovytes have, even including those that are hugely out of date and outclassed by more modern weapons so to say they are hoping to use up these weapons is similar to saying they are hoping to use up Ukrainian bullets by sending so many conscripts to run at their possitions. The moskovyte economy is starting to crumble and their ability to produce modern military equipment is now much reduced so I am really not convinced that this war of attrition strategy you think putin is doing so well with is going to help them avoid a dramatic defeat in Ukraine if not this year but in the not too distant future beyond that.

10-04-2023 03:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461713#Comment_120461713

Still peanuts,and irrelevant,Russia is much larger than Ukraine in military power,thats what this is about,and much more powerful in resources as well i am sure you get the point.

If you cant handle the facts tough luck,i have explained it to you

Reality is sometimes hard to swallow

thats how Putins war of attrition works

If he succseeds we dont know,but Ukraine wont last without western support,thats a fact and without US its nearly impossible.

Thats why Ukraines counter offensive will be their last chance and hopefully Putins last chance as well,if they succseed.

I want Ukraine to win as much as you do,but i am also seeing things from a realistic point of view if they dont.

Dohnjoe · 10-04-2023 03:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461609#Comment_120461609

The Europa poll you are referring is from 2022 and it shows a majority of support

Here is the latest one at the one year point:

https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2872

"EU citizens continue to show their unwavering solidarity with Ukraine. 91% of respondents agree with the provision of humanitarian support and 88% are in favour of welcoming into the EU people fleeing the war. Providing financial support to Ukraine is approved by 77%, while imposing economic sanctions on Russian government, companies and individuals gain the support of 74% of the interviewees. Europeans also continue to be largely in favour of banning Russian state-owned media from broadcasting (67%) and of the EU financing the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine (65%).

Overall, a majority of European citizens (56%) remain satisfied with the European Union’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "

TLDR a majority of Europeans support sending aid, financial support and military equipment to Ukraine.

Mike3549 · 10-04-2023 03:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461742#Comment_120461742

If you said this one year ago, you would be right. Russians military power is in bits. If they are so big, why are they asking for ammo from Iran, NK and china?

Their people are running away from the country, what manpower are you talking about?

Resources? Check rouble rates.

Reality is sometimes hard to swallow

macraignil · 10-04-2023 03:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461742#Comment_120461742

Military power is not just how many conscripts can you give a uniform to and send to the front lines. The moskovyte equipment losses in Ukraine are huge as you can see from the figures I posted above. I think with the influx of western equipment to Ukraine and the equipment they have captured and had themselves already from older soviet stock and new military technology they are importing and developing themselves like military drones the advantage in military power the moskovytes might have thought they had before invading is becoming less and less true.

I don't think you have a good grasp of the facts even just taking your population comparison numbers as an example so forgive me if I am a bit sceptical about you explaining things to me. I'd like to see Ukraine succeed in driving the moskovytes out of their country this year but I don't agree with you telling me this is their only chance. It makes no sense for the rest of the world to step away from the opportunity they now have to diminish moskovyte military power significantly while they are so clearly in breach of international law in trying to destroy their neighbour.

10-04-2023 06:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461789#Comment_120461789

They are asking for ammo same way as Ukraine is,only specific types and drones to use to drain Ukraine for ground to air missiles.

New reports from leaked documents might suggest that Ukraine is running out of air defence missiles

I am well aware of the rouble,and i have mention it before as one of the reasons that could stop Russia,

I am talking about conscription that Russia have annually,and its now in April and ends in July,meaning more troops to the grinder

Also Russia have still alot of tanks in storage,and with the same rate of losses,they will last for another 2 1/2 years,depending on condition.

Thats the reality

10-04-2023 06:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461793#Comment_120461793

It is in a war of attrition,that you have a hard time understanding how works,thats why Russia keeps sending untrained soldiers to the grinder.

And you are still whining about population with a small margin of error thats irrelevant

And still have tanks for atleast another 2 years in storage

Can Ukraine with western support go on for another 2 years you think,if Ukraines counter offensive fails or russia goes bankrupt or Putin dies,will it end up negotiating?

Thats the question i want you to answer

Obviously you cant see the bigger picture here

Dohnjoe · 10-04-2023 06:54PM

Drone situation for Ukr not looking good, apparently the Russians are having much more success in jamming the most used models, due to developing their jamming tech. With the recent leaks (fake, modified, intentional or real), plus the on-going logistics issues, could be hard for Ukr to make much progress this year.

Ramasun · 10-04-2023 07:04PM

Vietnam, Afghanistan, Afghanistan again, Iraq there's no good recent history for well resourced armies in occupying medium sized countries.

Putin's only wins were small scale in Georgia and Crimea, he had to obliterate Chechnya and install a rogue puppet to govern the ruins even. This war will be the end of the Russian Federation. China will carve off the Far East and leave an impotent rump as it's vassal.

macraignil · 10-04-2023 07:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120462333#Comment_120462333

You seem to have a hard time understanding that attrition is not just happening to the forces of Ukraine in this war. The moskovytes are taking huge losses to their newest equipment as well as soldiers they have sent to invade Ukraine and as the attacking force trying to advance on prepared positions I think it is very likely their looses are significantly greater than those lost on the Ukrainian side.

The tanks the moskovytes have in storage are likely to have serious weak points that can be targeted by more modern anti tank weapons so while the number on paper might be big I think the effect these outdated tanks can have on the battle field will be limited. Serious upgrades would be needed for these tanks to pose a threat similar to more modern tanks and even some of the Armed Personnel Carriers being sent ot Ukraine will be sufficiently well equipped to deal with these older main battle tanks. Do the moskovytes have the tecnological and manufacturing capacity to upgrade significant numbers of these moth balled old tanks?

I think with western support Ukraine can keep fighting for another two years or more and the simple fact is even if this support was reduced they would still keep fighting as they have no other option when faced by an expansionist leadership in moskovia. It is in all of the worlds interest that the moskovyte terrorist state is not allowed carry on as it has been doing so I would be shocked if there was any reduction in international support for Ukraine.

If the initial counteroffensive is not fully successful I would expect Ukraine to keep trying to remove the invaders from their country by any means.

Obviously you have a much better view of the bigger picture than I would but above is just my opinion of how things would work out if the preferred possability of a swift Ukrainian victory does not materialise.