Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Barrel scraping desperation.

Looks like a Ukrainan mig 29 was lost along with it's pilot yesterday

Returning to the frozen conflict theme, we need to remember that is exactly the situation that Ukraine was in from 2014-2022. Any return to this would just represent the status quo.

The more I think about this, the more likely that outcome seems. The open question being what lines on the map would demarcate the boundaries between sovereign Ukrainian territory and illegally occupied fake Russian 'republics'.

(note that this is clearly not the outcome any of us want, but it seems to be the most realistic)

That's what I worry will be the outcome too. I especially worry that the US will lose interest in supporting Ukraine once Biden is gone and Russia will be able to push the frontline deeper into Ukraine. I feel the Ukrainians really need to retake territory this spring/summer because it may be their last chance.

in 1917, there was a clear groundswell against the Tsar, who had clearly lost his grip on power, and a host of alternatives.

Can we say the same in 2022?

1. Is there a clear opposition to Putin? Is the population generally opposed to him?
2. Where are the modern-day Social Revolutionaries, the Mensheviks, the Bolsheviks?
3. Could we even identify a modern-day Kerensky?

Also Tsar Nicholas was more direct about being in day to day command of the army which made the poor performance on the battlefield and poor conditions of the soldiers more directly his fault in the eyes of the population. Putin still has plenty of generals and a defence minister to blame for his own decisions.

Even if your highly optimistic scenario occurs, you could still have a frozen conflict. It would just be based along the 2014 borders.

I also think it's very optimistic to think that Ukraine could conquer back Donetsk city. Look how hard it is for Russia to take a much, much smaller city in Bakhmut for example. Defence is easier than attack, and Russia still, in spite of their awful tactics and leadership, has a lot of men and weaponry to throw into the conflict.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be very happy if Ukraine could push Russia back into its own territory for good. I just don't share the same probabilistic assessment as you. Time will prove us right or wrong.

Pretty sure that IS the strategy at this juncture. Putin likely fancies his chances of remaining in Ukraine until November 2024.

Of the two Republicans most likely to run/win, both fall squarely into the 'Russian asset' category.

What's probably more concerning than who is POTUS is what their Congress looks like. They're the one who actually pass these bills to give Ukraine another X billion in military aid.

If the worst happens there, then Europe must severely up its game. There is a massive worry here, though. The extent to which a deep red USA washes its hands of the conflict would be directly proportional to the credibility of Russian nuclear threats against European countries, like Poland, who decided to get directly (and unilaterally) involved in the conflict. And Russia might even be free to use tactical nukes and chemical weapons in the battlefield with no comeback apart from "widespread international condemnation". About as much use as "thoughts and prayers".

Sorry not to be clear but when I said that when Ukraine's looming counteroffensive has had a major impact on the moskovyte army in Ukraine that putin would fall out a window I should have simply said that a group in the Kremlin will have him elliminated. I did not intend to suggest there would be some peace loving government formed in a political regime change but meant to say that some one from the Kremlin would come forward to be the face of the existing moskovyte leadership grouping that will have lost patience with putin's delusions of muskovyte military superiority which has clearly been shown to be false by their failures in Ukraine.

It's just an opinion but I think even non peace loving Kremlin staff will realise that if they continue to destroy their military in Ukraine the russian federation will no longer exist and a lot of the republics more distant from moskow will align themselves with China rather than continue to send their young people to be fodder for putin's dreams of a revitalised soviet style empire. Survival is a great motivator and when it filters through to the people behind putin that he is no longer doing the right things to keep them safe his time will be up and maybe one of his alleged illnesses will suddenly prove terminal and allow the regime change direction without admitting to responsibility for putin's mistakes.

'A group in the Kremlin will have him eliminated'.

This just strikes me as wishful thinking. All 'Kremlin groups' are part of Putin's power vertical. Their interests are totally aligned with that of Putin.

To end this quickly there would need to be a massive increase of high end hardware given to Ukraine, including vast quantities of tanks, AFV, artillery and drones along with all the ammunition the need. Ukraine has proven its-self well able to use any kit given to them but most of all they are willing to fight and do the hard yards.

Most of all required are long range weapons and no restriction on where they can be used. All military bases with in Russia are legitimate targets, as are rail networks, communication hubs, bridges etc. Ukraine are fighting with one hand behind their back. Let Russia feel the same pain.

These could to slow or stop resupply into Ukraine making the situation untenable for Russian troops. Additionally it would bring it home to the Russian population that the war has consequences and increase the over all cost to Russia

The west should not fear escalation Russia knows it is totally out matched so won’t escalate. They will huff and puff but will ‘do nuttin’

True, DPR and RU are essentially the same, and early on in all of this DPR forces were clearly a sly way for Russia to wage war on Ukraine without flying their flag.

However operationally I suspect they are a separate force that has been supplemented with pro-RU / drafted locals. Mostly useful as a rear-guard, they have also been used as cannon fodder to spare them using official Russian troops, and possibly to frame their fights as “liberations” of DPR turf.

If the main official RU force is pulled out of the area, I fully expect them to leave DPR troops behind to serve the image of Ukraine trying to occupy people against their will, and possibly as a local partisan force.

One trick that the Russian MoD has been doing is transferring groups of mobiks to the DPR and reclassifying them as "volunteers". If they subsequently die or are injured they/their relatives aren't entitled to the same benefits that someone officially fighting for the Russian are. It also often means that they get screwed on salaries. There has been widespread stories of DPR and LNR troops suffering abuse at the hands of Chechen troops (including rapes)

DPR losses aren't counted toward official Russian losses either but those are fictional anyway so that's not a huge deal.

I think if there's time to ask the question "do we kill these POWs?" then, you don't kill them.

Accidents will happen, actions or words will get misinterpreted, people under extreme stress will react unhelpfully, and all these kinds of situations should be investigated thoroughly as soon as is practicable.

But you always start from the premise that it is never 'ok' to kill POWs.