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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Or the Russians are being sensible and changing tack? If I were running Russia(well I'd not have started or run this war like this), I'd be thinking OK, We have a large chunk of Donbas, Crimea is ours and we're keeping a lid on the land between them. The Ukrainians are getting more help and stuff like tanks etc are coming, along with even more Western training. Crap like Bakmut is a grindfest and not getting us anywhere. OK, lets consolidate fortify what we have, make it near impossible for Ukraine to take it back and get our new chums the Chinese to do the required on "peace talks". They can sell that to their people easy peasy. Say they've taken back Russian land, say they've dealt Ukraine a blow and the hated "West". They've sold dafter and fewer dead bodies coming back looks better for the optics.

    If anything I'd suspect the same Chinese would be all the way behind this as for all the guff about friendship this crap is costing them money and they need to start ploughing their cash into turning Russia into their new resources bank, while keeping the West open for business. Win, lose or draw for Russia, it's win, win and win for China either way.

    And I would bet the farm a fair few Russian high ups are not too pleased at all that it's come to this. They had bet on Europe and the EU to line their pockets and knew the EU were not going to try and take them from behind minus vaseline. After all they didn't over the near forty years of pipelines going into Europe. Something the Americans were not happy about one little bit. But they know China will go in dry as putin put them over a barrel.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    155 mm DPICM ammo have an devasting effect on russians

    You sure wouldnt be on the receiving end of this




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,163 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I don't think Putin has that much control over Russian minds that he can spin a victory out of what of Ukraine Russia currently holds. If he did, he could nearly tell them that Russia already won the war and leave it at that. There are obviously motivations for him to truly realise the territorial ambitions he had on 24/2/2022 and he has invested so much into it, that I very much doubt he can call it a day now. And even if he could spin it all rosy on the domestic front, the external realities remain the same - Ukraine still stands, Russia remains under sanction, Russia looks weak and inept. Putin may be able to live with the sanctions - wear them as a badge of honour, even - if the other things were not so, but they are, and he knows it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think he could spin it that way if he wanted to, I think being in ukraine keeping the war/special operation is the goal right now, doesn't matter much if they don't make progress as it keeps him in control either way.

    I would like to see a push towards Melitopol and then a push further into Crimea as it's what makes putin look weakest, losing or maintaining existing territory in the east (where they have been waging a war of sorts for years) won't change much.

    I could see it ongoing till putin is dead, natural causes or otherwise (i.e. it could be a decade or more).

    It will likely leave Ukraine as one of the most heavily armed countries right on russia's border, but putin won't be around to worry about that bit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,163 ✭✭✭✭briany


    It's not so much being in Ukraine which is the goal, then. Sounds more like it is simply to stay in power. Considering he was essentially being made leader for life before the invasion proper began and considering that Russia were already in Ukraine before the official invasion began, it sounds to me like what Putin is attempting to do here is a bit redundant.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I can only think that being in a "special operation" situation allows him to quell rebellions and keep those around him under the thumb (witness how feckless the oligarch's have been after they've had all their international goodies and freedom taken away. Rationally, there's no advantage to continuing, barring an unrealistic expectation that they can win and turn Ukraine into a russian vassal state.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,163 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If Mussolini were alive today, one thing he could tell us is that war is not the ultimate tool for a fascistic leader to remain in power. Thankfully he's not around today - mainly because no one lives to the age of 140, but also because his people strung him up a long time ago.

    Putin's power is already getting publicly challenged by the likes of Prigozhin. I think there's at least much risk of creating rebellions via a failing war effort as there is of keeping them under control with a winning one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I don't think the russians see it as failing, at least, out loud.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Ukraine is protected by a tiny handful of air defence systems. The Orcs have massive air superiority which they have held back. They also have been waging a large and ceaseless espionage effort to locate those very few air defences. If the Orcs were to overwhelm and/or sabotage them, then they could take out Ukraine's western supply routes, their remaining and outmatched aircraft, and then the could level all their cities from high altitude and with the large number of inaccurate missiles they still have.

    This is why I am so concerned by the abject stupidity of Biden and his advisers in not providing modern western fighters, as they are the one and only thing, barring direct western involvement, that might prevent such a scenario. Ukrainian pilots should have been in the west training on F-18s, 8 months ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Ukraine needs to get back Soledar from Wagner and do a Zelensky broadcast from inside.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,623 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    And why have the Orcs held back their air forces?

    Because they are gone. Shot down, blown up, failed and broken down.

    If they had them, we'd have seen them by now, because true air superiority would end the War in a week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,163 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @cnocbui

    The Orcs have massive air superiority which they have held back.

    Must just be conscripting 100,000s of men and breaking out ancient tanks for the craic, then.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think the reason why Russia dont have air superioriy is well explained here




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Far from it ,they have 90 jets and 60 hind gunships stationed in Crimea alone,they still have long range tactical bombers and their older bombers



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,163 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Lot of talk of what Russia has in regards air power and absolute crickets as to why they're not using it (or cannot use it) to any extent which turns the tide of war.

    Any answers about that?

    Untitled Image




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Old Franco lived to a ripe old age by knowing well what Benny didnt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,163 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Yeah.

    "Don't get your country embroiled in costly foreign wars."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Russia has 1046 attack aircraft in their airforce not including bombers and helicopters,

    Ukraine had a total of 97 attack aircraft.

    The Ukrainan airforce should have been wiped out in the first ten minutes of the invasion they are pretty much outnumbered 10-1 in every aspect,

    Ukraine could never have air superiority against Russia no matter how good their propaganda is ,but no one can explain how and why Russia hasn't gotten air superiority especially early on , when there wasn't an abundant supply of air defense systems and manpads available to Ukraine, they still have the ability to overwhelm the Ukrainan air defenses between cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and attack aircraft,

    The lack of any large scale air assaults can't be explained away , earlier on we seen a few low level dog fights which went ukraines way but by the looks of things at the time Russian aircraft didn't fly with air 2 air missles , which left them at distinct disadvantage, along with pilots having to use off the shelf gps units along with pen and paper maps to find ground targets at low level and low speeds ,once your flying in those situations the moment an aircraft has his missles or guns on your tail your dead , you've no weapons to fight with and your flying at low level and speed, there's not a lot of manuvering you can get away with,

    As I said earlier during the two Iraq wars the US and coalition had hundreds of aircraft flying for several nights taking out command and control centers,air defenses ,air bases , aircraft, vehicles

    We've seen next to nothing from the Russian airforce, even this week two aircraft over the black sea firing missles towards Odessa,it makes zero sense to what and why they are doing it,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,163 ✭✭✭✭briany


    There has to be a good explanation. The video posted on the page before could be one for example. Surely we're not to believe that the Russians are literally so inept that they're not even aware of all this supposed air superiority they possess. 'cause if that truly is the case, the Russians aren't just inept or corrupt or disorganised etc. That would make them literally pants-on-head retarded.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Horse manure. That isn't remotely the issue. If you think the Orcs having 3,562 aircraft vs Ukraine's 271 isn't air suiperiority, well nothing I say can sway you.

    They aren't gone. I believe the commander of the Orc air force has a singular and unique ability to keep his boys out of it, for the most part, probably by arguing greater exigencies related to border protection, China, US, upity regions...

    Just today:

    "It all started in the evening, when the enemy attacked Odesa region. Two Kh-59 missiles were destroyed. Also, the attack continued from the north of our country, about 10 Su-35 planes, Russia's newest fighters, attacked the Sumy region with guided air bombs. This is an extremely big threat when guided air bombs, glide bombs can fly far, and planes do not enter the zone of damage of our anti-aircraft defense. Thus, more than 10 of these guided bombs attacked objects in the Sumy region. The losses are being clarified there, they will be announced by the military "administrations," Ignat said.

    Ukraine can do nothing about these planes, as their youngest, prior to the Polish and Slovakian ones that just arrived, was built in 1991. They simply can not intercept or challenge the Orcs more modern planes as they have relatively archaic radar and missiles, commparatively, and attrociously short range and fuel capacity. I saw a claim within the past week that Ukraine has lost around 60 aircraft in the past year. A former USAF Mig-29 pilot who flew them for 2.5 years says they are commpletely outclassed in BVR engagements, but can hold their own in a dogfight briefly, as they have terrible fuel and range issues - 150 mi combat radius for air intercept - pffft!

    I am not in the least bit excited by the Polish and Slovakian Mig-29 donations, and neither are the Ukrainians. A handful more of the same inferior and outclassed planes they already have changes nothing.

    They need an air-power cpability upgrade in the same way HIMARS gave them an artillery upgrade.

    If the Orcs ever decide to risk a lot of planes to overwhelm and take out Ukraines scant few air defences, they could reverse the current tide of the war.

    A brief list of just a few of the idiots like me who think Ukraine should receive modern Western fighters:

    General Ben Hodges ret.

    General David Petraeus ret., former Director of the CIA

    Admiral James G. Stavridis, former commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe.

    General Christopher G. Cavoli, Supreme commander of NATO in Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "We're very lucky they're so fu​cking stupid"



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Doesnt matter if you have 20000 aircraft if you dont have enough trained pilots,thats how simple it is

    And that training includes not only air combat,but also ground support,SEAD and DEAD



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,460 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So how would Ukraine intercept Russian planes (within Russia) with western jets?

    It's pretty obvious if Ukraine were to receive western jets, they wouldn't be flying sorties within Russia.

    Western jets won't prevent Russia from lobbing bombs or missiles from Russia into Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Would you have a reference for the Orc pilot numbers?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But still 1056 attack aircraft vs 97 and they are still flying,

    It's not down to an apparent lack of pilots,. even if they only had 500 of those aircraft with pilots they still have 5-1 advantage,

    Ukraine by right in any other war would have a airforce of zero by now ,



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    But i havent seen or heard of one SEAD or DEAD operation from the russians yet and that takes alot of training,and should have been done before any invasion started,or atleast before any or during an offensive operation.

    Same when doing ground support in combined arms operations,together with their mechanised units and infantry

    If pilots lacks the training,they are basically useless,and numbers wont make up for that



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Western aircraft carry more modern air2air missles that can kill other aircraft beyond visual range (BVR) at over 100 Miles they in theory could track and engage and shoot down Russian aircraft over the black sea while staying inside of Ukraine air defense systems,

    The Americans are already looking at air2air missles with a 200km + range thats like have aircraft over Dublin shooting down other aircraft in Galway east to west coast before the other aircraft could pick up the aircraft in Dublin on radar



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  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Doesnt matter how many pilots they have if they dont have the training needed for air dominance operations



This discussion has been closed.
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