Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Good twitter analysis from Mick Ryan on Bakhmut situation

And not another regular Russian guy would have to die if Putin did the sensible thing for Russia and withdrew his forces. Putin is in far too deep to do this, of course, but the principal of the thing remains the same.

This is an excellent interview with someone who knows Putin well & gives her expert insight into how things might develop. She was an adviser to three US presidents

https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/Fiona-Hill-Working-with-Trump-and-fighting-against-Putin-Podcast/B0BWX8FWSP?ref=a_pd_Leadin_c4_lAsin_0_0&pf_rd_p=a202f891-0d90-47a2-ac3f-8ebc4b2943db&pf_rd_r=FE2NZK0XPBY9205VWV7A&pageLoadId=igf4NC9k5pDNYSjd&creativeId=43463e8d-6f2b-4d01-a759-854a1034c4b8

What an ordinary Russian is in civilian life, and what comes out of Putins de-humanization machine are too different things. Any Russian on Ukrainian territory and wearing Russian military uniform is a legitimate target.

The fight for Bakhmut, whether won or lost for Ukraine can change the war trajectory. That quote doesn't imply winning that battle equals winning the war. Nor does Ukraine having to withdraw from there equal a defeat.

Not if they are historians familiar with the concept of pyrhhic victories... and such precdents as the Battle of Bunker Hill:

General Clinton echoed Pyrrhus of Epirus, remarking in his diary that "A few more such victories would have shortly put an end to British dominion in America."

The latest forecast from Strelkov. I think he's right to be pessimistic. After Bakhmut falls, it's going to take months for the Russians to take another significant Ukrainian city.

The big question for me is whether Ukraine will have any better success than the Russians when they decide to attack.

This guy has done a great job in providing intel of the defences that the Russians have been building up in southern Ukraine since last year.

The task ahead looks very daunting.

Nah it would spoil the surprise.

We will have to disagree then. If Ukraine prevails, Poland won't need the tanks and can receive supplies at leisure, so worst case is a delay; If Russia prevails, they may well need the tanks and there will be a lot of dead Poles as well.

Denmark did the correct maths and sent them all of their Caesars, Estonia did likewise and sent all of their 155mm Howitzers; Slovakia is considering sending all of it's Mig-29s, bar one for a museum.

Estonia has done the correct maths and is giving Ukraine 44.6% of it's entire military budget. In all, 11 European countries are giving larger proportions of their defence budgets than is the US. Yes that's off a low base, but thats a different conversation.

These countries all have a first responsibility to themselves as much as Poland does, but have IMO reasoned correctly that their best protection is to arm Ukraine to the best of their abilities.

The US should be prioritising Abrams deliveries to Ukraine, not Poland, or Morocco , or it's own armed forces which have ±8,000 Abrams already. There simply is no greater need than in Ukraine, whose inevitable success is a stupid and potentially deadly assumption to be making.

Never underestimate the enemy. There is a lot of cocky bravado going on that Ukraine is doing so well, victory is all but in the bag, no need for fighter jets, or anything advanced since it's clear they will defeat Russia just with the 1990's era weapons, with a bit of precision added, being parsimoniously drip fed to them. I hope that's right and am as susceptible to the hype and promise from Ukrainian successes as anyone, but it's potentially a deadly assumption. The Ukrainian security forces have managed to nab around 600 FSB agents and saboteurs so far, if they miss some who discover the locations of most of Ukraine's handful of advanced AA batteries...

The stripy bit I added is roughly the total US funding to Ukraine (it overlays the end of the US bar). While a lot is done to talk it up and make it seem like a lot, it really isn't in the scheme of things.

And it's not just me who thinks it's not enough:

General Ben Hodges ret.

General David Petraeus ret.

Admiral James G. Stavridis, former commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe.

General Christopher G. Cavoli, Supreme commander of NATO in Europe.

All of them have urged fighter jets and more in general be provided sooner, rather than later, so I'd be surprised if they wouldn't think as I do on the Abrams question.

Another "peace" rally

"Solidarity, international cooperation and peace, Anti imperialism and for social justice."

If they just said I'll bate you if you oppose Russia it would be refreshingly honest.

Maybe Im wrong but perhaps instructing the Moldovan police to open fire on any future pro russian rally participants would knock the idea of bussing them in on the head fairly sharpish ?

Bakhmut in the overall scheme of things means nothing, Russia using alot of resources to have a win . Ukraine willing to keep putting in troops to tie the Russians. up. Russians don't have the army to push much forward and ukraines regrouping for a big offensive.It will just be a stalemate maybe ukraine will make gains but not enough. Such a **** waste of life for nothing. Whatever land Russia holds onto will just be a waste land as they have no money to invest. As part of negotiations with Russia, Ukraine should be offered membership of nato and a commitment to EU membership once they meet the criteria. That would safe guard Ukraine future. Russia would have whatever land they gained but lost in the real sense.

Budanov - Russia is getting exhausted Ukraine war: Top spy says Russia out of 'military tools' by spring (usatoday.com)

The UK should honestly be proud of themselves leading the charge like this. They seem to be one of the few countries that truly understand that the best place for pretty much any tank/military tech in Europe right now is on Ukranian soil. They're holding the horde at bay for the rest of us. Giving the ukranians anything short of exactly what they need immediately is morally bankrupt.

I know they're mental but Russia would want to be truly beyond their **** minds to attack a NATO country in their current state. Having hundreds of Leopards manning the warehouses in Spain or Germany, "just in case" makes literally no sense currently.