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Connacht Team Talk Thread VI - Some like it TOH

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,044 ✭✭✭connachta


    No, the real question, is if Cardiff or Scarlets win Challenge Cup, which is not unlikely, did they take us back the league qualifying 8th spot they would have stolen otherwise by the unreal "sub-pools" rule



  • Posts: 85 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If a Welsh club wins the European Challenge Cup but doesn't finish top of the Welsh Shield then they'll qualify displacing the lowest qualifying team based on league position. For example, in today's table Cardiff (9th) are qualifying ahead of Connacht (8th) but if Scarlets (13th) had just won the Challenge Cup they'd now displace the Sharks (7th) too.

    We have exactly the same path open to us if we win the Challenge Cup.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 64 ✭✭tintedgreenglasses2016


    It was always about representation. I guess world soccer is much the same where geographic areas are provided qualifying spots into the World Cup. However what is different is that these geographic areas have their separate qualifying competitions. In the URC these geographic areas play in the same qualifying competition.

    As such I agree with you connachta that this representative structure makes no sense and the grouping of Scottish and Italian teams just highlights this even more



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,437 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    If one of them wins the Challenge Cup, and the other wins the Welsh Shield, then both would get into the H Cup next year at the expense of the lowest ranked team qualifying by league position.

    The rules on how the 8 URC teams will be selected to play in the HCC each season are as follows:

    4 x Shield winners

    Winner of URC (if not already qualified by being a shield winner)

    Winner of Heineken Champions Cup (if applicable)

    Winner of Challenge Cup (if applicable)

    The remaining places after the above have been accounted for will be filled according to final league position.


    The above means that there will be between 1 and 4 places available to be won by virtue of league position, depending what teams win the four Shields, the URC, the HCC and the CC.

    Post edited by Jump_In_Jack on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,044 ✭✭✭connachta


    Thanks. But still unclear.

    Do you mean the rule is unfair to Connacht TO THE EXTENT that, if Cardiff win Challenge Cup and qualify through that, Scarlets or Ospreys would qualify even lower in the table (instead of us)?



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  • Posts: 85 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    No, if Cardiff are the hightest placed Welsh team and also win the Challenge Cup, only they qualify for the Champions Cup. All lower Welsh sides would still need to qualify on their own merit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,437 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    No that won't happen, (@[Deleted User] is totally correct), for example, if a team were to win the Challenge Cup, and their geographical Shield, and finishes in a high enough league position to qualify, (at the moment I believe Glasgow may achieve this by the way), all three of those achievements are just for that team, they do not transfer or confer any rights to another team to qualify. The only effect is that there would be extra places out of the 8 leftover to be given to teams by virtue of their league finishing position.

    In other words there are a number of ways to qualify and teams can achieve more than one, and the only result from that is that there would be more places left to be decided by league position.

    Say for example the first 4 teams are always the shield winners, we know those teams before the playoffs, they are locked in by that stage as HCC qualifiers.

    After that there are only 4 more places left to be decided.

    From that point on, the 4 highest placed league teams (that aren't shield winners) will also qualify except for the circumstances where a lower placed team wins the URC, HCC or CC to gain qualification.

    e.g. (extrapolating from the current league standings) 4xSW (e.g. Leinster, Stormers, Glasgow, Cardiff), 1xURCW (e.g. Stormers), 1xHCCW (e.g. Leinster), 1xCCW (e.g. Glasgow), in this scenario all three champions would have won their geographical Shield, and also all three would have finished with a decent enough league position to expect to qualify that way as well (all are top 4 presently), so after taking those 4 teams that would have qualified out of the 8 places available, there would be 4 places leftover for the other teams, and which other 4 teams would qualify would be determined by their final league position (or final league standing to use the URC terminology). At present that's looking like Ulster, Munster, Bulls and Sharks. While Connacht are in 8th position presently, Cardiff would take the qualification position from Connacht by dint of winning the Welsh Shield (this system is up for review at the end of this season, however the only article I could find mentioned the word unanimous, so maybe all Unions would have to agree to change it, and Wales definitely wouldn't agree at the moment as they've benefitted now two years in a row).

    (SW = Shield Winners, URCW = United Rugby Championship Winner, HCCW = Heineken Champions Cup Winner, CCW = Challenge Cup Winner)


    Just to add an extreme example out of interest, in any given year, if two of the shield were particularly poor, let's say the Irish and South African shield are better than the other two and their 8 teams occupy the top 8 spots,

    and let's say for example Glasgow were in the bottom half of the table below Edinburgh yet managed to win the Champions Cup, and Benetton were below Edinburgh also and managed to win the Challenge Cup, then there would be a situation where two shield winners plus the HCC and CC winners were all outside of the top 8, then lets' say Connacht were 8th in the league but won the URC and qualification. To add a twist, if the Shield winner of one of the two Irish or South African Shield were outside the top 3 then they would take the qualifying place from the 3rd ranked team. There could even be the case that the team that made the final would not qualify, if they weren't in the top 2. It is extremely unlikely though but an interesting musing.

    Post edited by Jump_In_Jack on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,663 ✭✭✭FACECUTTR


    I would much prefer Roux to come back in fairness and he has said before he would come back to live. Is he still with Bath or gone back to Toulon?



  • Posts: 85 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Still at Bath. He was starting regularly but he picked up a knee injury at the end of 2022. No idea how serious it is and how long he's expected to be out for.

    I'd say that Joe Joyce will be the final experienced recruitment in the second row this Summer. We'll back the Murray brothers to stay fit and have lock cover from the back row too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,511 ✭✭✭Wegians89


    Wonder where they see dowling and josh murphys futures



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  • Posts: 85 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Right now I'm wondering who "they" are going to be? 😆 It's looking like we'll be retaining a maximum of two of our five coaches.

    I see Dowling as a second row.

    I think Josh Murphy will remain a utility lock / blindside next season unless reduced squad size and injuries leave us short in either position. I feel like we haven't gotten the best out of him this season and maybe a settled position might help.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,511 ✭✭✭Wegians89


    I’d have thought similarly but dowling seems to have been lining out at 6 when ever he has played (not too often)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,219 ✭✭✭KBurke85




  • Posts: 2,519 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's probably the least exciting announcement that could have happened today (especially with rumours of potentially Carolan returning or someone like that), but simultaneously seemed the likeliest for the past few weeks.

    Will be interesting to see who they put around him.



  • Posts: 1,357 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Screw it. I was unhappy when Andy Farrell got the Irish job, and he has proven me wrong. Going to give Wilkins the benefit of doubt. He's signed for 3 years. Might as well get behind him



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭ClanofLams


    Weakest appointment Connacht have made in decades. Terrible sign for the province..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,864 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    Since taking over as head coach, we have a winning record despite completely restructuring the coaching ticket extremely close to the start of the season. All while blooding the young players who will hopefully be the backbone of the province for years to come, and improving our defence hugely from the mess of 21/22. Imo we are winning the games we should win, and suffering from having probably the toughest fixture list in the URC. We are about where we should be considering our playing pool, budget, etc. As the likes of the Murrays, Cathal Forde, etc. enter their mid to late twenties I hope we can become a top 4/6 team again, but we are not there yet.

    We do definitely need to get the rest of our coaching appointments right, especially Senekaal's replacement. Overall I'm cautiously optimistic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭ClanofLams


    I guess it doesn't make much difference assuming the six month clause is still in IRFU contracts but on what basis is he is being given a three year contract exactly...surely two would be plenty for first time head coach.

    Thought the main issues facing Connacht were in the coaching box but as time goes on, hard not to consider Executives there a problem too. Appear content to drift along, lacking any desire to really improve, don't rock the boat as long as the wages are being lodged.

    Lack of transparency around the interview process suggests there wasn't too many interviews done, media would surely have named candidates had there been.

    Very bad day for Connacht.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,864 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    Is it normal for the rejected candidates to be public knowledge? I think Friend mentioned two others.

    We are renovating our stadium, and bringing through a potential golden generation of homegrown talent, supplanted with players from other provinces far above the level we used to bring in. What more do you want? What do you expect from a head coach that you think Wilkins cannot deliver?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭ClanofLams


    He's been an integral part of the coaching structure that has done nothing to address repeated errors - restarts, allowing huge leads to slip, getting hammerings away to second string sides (not this season but to be fair I don't think Connacht have played a second string side away yet, bar perhaps Zebre whose first team hadn't won in twelve games or whatever is and Connacht came pretty close to ending that run against Zebre seconds).

    That's without mentioning the absolute ridiculous decision making process that led to Connacht not going full strength v Newcastle. A game that should have secured a home European knockout minimum, had the potential to secure an all home pathway to a European final, the biggest game of the season and Connacht don't go all guns blazing, don't even secure a losing bonus point to get home last 16. That game alone should have been more than enough to herald the end of this coaching ticket.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭ClanofLams


    Historically there has been plenty of speculation around the Connacht head coaching position, the media had the full six name shortlist before Lam was appointed, as I recall at least one of the others turned the position down thankfully. Likewise before Keane and Friend appointments, there was speculation. The absolute radio silence on it this time and the frequent hints/suggestions that it was a done deal on podcasts, off the ball etc by journos suggest the "thorough" recruitment process was minimal at best.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,044 ✭✭✭connachta


    FFS so much agree with Newcastle stupid selection



  • Posts: 2,519 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Bernard Jackman and Murray Kinsella specifically commented on how unusual it was that virtually no names had leaked to the press etc during this Connacht process on the 42's member's podcast. Jackman speculated that based on that fact alone he reckoned it would be Wilkins.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,663 ✭✭✭FACECUTTR


    Such a poor appointment but i suppose it was on the cards when he travelled to New Zealand last year. I suspect there was a push from the IRFU. I really hope there are other decent coaches coming in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭ClanofLams


    We'll never know but i'd wager a fair amount of cash it was two interviews done over zoom to check the box.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,044 ✭✭✭connachta


    Sorry I'll read it in detail when less tired but let's make it simple with Connacht (long-time) ennemy : Cardiff

    We finish 8th. Cardiff finish 9th. Cardiff wins Challenge Cup

    Do Scarlets/Ospreys (10th/11th) steal us the qualifying spot by Shield or not?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,044 ✭✭✭connachta


    Thank you

    Champain

    Main issue for me is it will make me suffer to support Cardiff in Challenge Cup, but it's for the cause, then


    Same if Scarlets win Challenge Cup EVEN if Scarlets finish ahaed of them in the league?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,864 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    I certainly wasn't impressed by our defence under Wilkins at the time, but it got a lot worse when he handed it over to Colm Tucker. Points conceded per regular season league game:


    20/21: 23.14

    21/22: 27.89

    22/23: 23.71


    Obviously it's a simplistic metric but I think it's a useful one when it shows such a clear pattern. We conceded over 20% more points when Tucker took over, before Wilkins re-took responsibility this season and almost entirely arrested that trend. I'm not saying he's the right choice, I don't know if he is or not, I just think a huge portion of the fanbase is bizarrely unwilling to give him any credit whatsoever.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,308 ✭✭✭✭Utopia Parkway


    Looks like they had already decided on Wilkins from a long way out. I'd say it was only a pretence that they were casting their head coaching net far and wide. Look, I hope he does very well. I think a lot will depend on how the other coaching positions are filled around him. Doesn't look like there is going to be a director of rugby over him so he's going to have a lot of power. I can understand the misgivings though. It looks like the cheap and easy option from Connacht. Have to give him a chance though.



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