Russia - threadbanned users in OP

eoinbn · 31-01-2023 07:15PM

In some good news.

France to send more Caesars and to train 600 troops monthly.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3662923-france-to-send-12-more-caesar-selfpropelled-howitzers-to-ukraine.html

Also some hope that Switzerland will sell Leopards 2 back to German to backfill the tanks they send to Ukraine. Needs to be a vote for that to happen which won't happen for a few months.

robinph · 31-01-2023 07:18PM

... long war will automatically mean a defeat for Russia.

What other outcome is there for the West/ Ukraine?

If Russia gets to hold its current position then the West / Ukraine loses as it will just mean that Russia makes another move in another year or so... So the West won't let that happen.

If Russia takes over the whole of Ukraine then the West loses as Russia will just move a bit further on in another year or so... So the West won't allow that to happen.

The West requires Russia to be pushed back, its military significantly depleted and ideally Putin strung up from a lamppost by Russians. The only way I can see the West collectively giving up support for Ukraine in whatever form that happens to take in the future is if for some reason all other sources of fossil fuels become unavailable and the whole rest of the world's economys tank. That's not going to happen though, and Russia will be kept at bay until they destroy themselves. If need be then the West would resort to boots on the ground, but if they can leave it to a combination of Ukraine using Western military hardware and Putin and his idiotic generals destroying Russia then so much the better.

Russia won't be winning anything.

31-01-2023 07:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183867#Comment_120183867

No western nations are not directly involved in the war,so it not needed,however production have increased,both US and Europe have increased their production of artillery shells and other ammunition to fill up the stocks again ,that have been delivered to Ukraine,and you will see alot higher defence budgets coming in the next few year after lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict.

And most of Russias armour are still in storage and it takes atleast 3 months to bring one tank out and upgrade to modern standard,thats if they have the spareparts needed and not atleast electronics ,that Russia have been importing from the west before sanctions.

A new tank like t90 will take even longer

Dufflecoat Fanny · 31-01-2023 07:48PM

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Russian forces and occupation authorities continue efforts to identify and arrest Crimean Tatars under allegations that they associate with a pan-Islamist political organization banned in Russia. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 30 that Russian forces searched 25 Tatar homes and arrested nine people under accusations that they associate with Hizb ut-Tahrir (a pan-Islamist political organization that has historically been active in Central Asia and in Crimea amongst the Crimean Tatar community and that is banned in Russia).[55] The Center also reported that Russian forces are conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign against Crimean Tatars under the guise of fighting terrorism.[56] Russian occupation authorities have historically targeted Crimean Tatar communities to consolidate social control of occupied Crimea, promoting the notion that anti-Russian sentiment is extremist or terrorist activity by affiliating it with Hizb ut-Tahrir.[57] ISW previously reported that the Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) conducted similar raids on Crimean Tatar households in Dzankoi, occupied Crimea, on January 24.[58]

Russian forces and occupation authorities are continuing to evict and deport Ukrainians from their homes in occupied territories under the guise of “evacuation.” Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported on January 30 that Russian occupation authorities are housing Russian and Wagner forces in abandoned homes after forcibly evicting residents from settlements along the frontlines in occupied Luhansk Oblast.[59]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-30-2023

zv2 · 31-01-2023 08:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183054#Comment_120183054

IMF does not have a good reputation for these kinds of predictions.

Dohnjoe · 31-01-2023 08:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120184246#Comment_120184246

Oh I know, they are really just estimations. Often they can be wildly off. The bottom line is that Russia, economically, is in a much worse place than if they didn't invade Ukraine. They wouldn't be sanctioned, they wouldn't have hundreds of billions locked up, they would still have Europe paying them almost a billion per day for resources, they wouldn't be an intl pariah, and they wouldn't have an expensive war to maintain.

Dohnjoe · 31-01-2023 09:12PM

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1620517524319227904

The most nervous man in Russia right now

TheValeyard · 31-01-2023 09:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120184570#Comment_120184570

Probably sent to the front lines.

zv2 · 31-01-2023 09:32PM

Break the piggy bank open-

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1620451083616411651?s=20&t=tX6vhiaQ8bOLli_Mmn0Dgg

zv2 · 31-01-2023 09:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120184493#Comment_120184493

For sure. I was questioning their assertion that Russia would do better than England. I don't think so. Like the fellow that went bankrupt: "At first slowly, then suddenly"

Homelander · 31-01-2023 10:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183867#Comment_120183867

It's not a valid comparison.

Mainstream tanks back then were far simpler in design relatively speaking. Also, most of the "tanks" Germany produced were assault guns, not actual tanks.

Russia cannot pump out anything remotely near that level of modern, high-tech tanks.

There's lots they can scale up dramatically, including some vehicles, but high-tech tanks and other war-winning weapons is not one of them.

If you want to make comparisons with WW2 Germany, a more apt one would be the total German inability to produce enough of every kind of weapon that might have helped stemmed the tide, like the 262, V2's, Tiger IIs, Stg44 assault rifles, etc.

But they couldn't, because producing high-tech stuff requires enormous scarce resources which they didn't have free access to. Hence why they focused on stuff that they could produce in mass numbers, but wasn't ever going to do anything other than slightly prolong the war at best.

Russia is not really any different, if you think 20,000 T-90's (or even T-72s) are going to start rolling off the assembly lines, you are very much mistaken.

They could mass produce a low-spec tank, but that wouldn't be of any real use.

briany · 31-01-2023 10:44PM

@Homelander

They could mass produce a low-spec tank, but that wouldn't be of any real use.

The Russian apologist thing right now is that while Russia may be at a deficit regarding modern weaponry, they have the edge in numbers and will simply swamp Ukraine like a zombie horde. Putin will mobilise every able-bodied citizen if need be and somehow that won't be politically untenable. So, low-spec tanks by the bucketload and low-spec men in and alongside them until Ukraine either gives up or runs out of bullets.

Assuming that Russia could mobilise another million men, say (a number I've heard bandied about) - there still remains the small detail of how to keep that many men fed and kitted, not to mention motivated. If someone could give an analysis on the logistics needed to make that number of men effective and where Russia stands in these terms, it would be interesting reading, I think.

Gatling · 31-01-2023 11:07PM

Latest US package to Ukraine will include the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb which will give the Ukrainans the ability to hit targets out to 150km from HiMars launcher's.

Another poster claimed that they were already in Ukraine if I remember correctly,

Now it's been confirmed they are part of the next support package

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1620553830164500481?s=20&t=7yah6vjk72Iyd0VATRzOKg

Jinglejangle69 · 31-01-2023 11:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185013#Comment_120185013

They have managed so far when we were told they would freeze in bunkers and the Russian army would collapse while Ukraine pushed forward all snug in the best NATO winter gear.

Yet it’s Russia who are pushing forward.

Wolf359f · 31-01-2023 11:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185203#Comment_120185203

It was mentioned before that everyone expected a pretty much stalemate over winter and didn't expect the frontline to move much. We have seen frozen Russian soldiers in foxholes. Even after a drone dropped a grenade the Russian soldiers barely moved.

Anyways, is that your definition of pushing forward?

9 months to advance the Frontline 15kms.

What would you call the counter offensive by Ukraine that took Kherson and Kharkiv?

threeball · 31-01-2023 11:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183867#Comment_120183867

They wouldn't have produced jack shít if the Americans weren't supplying them with the means to do so. A point conveniently forgotten by all you russophiles, is that anything Russia achieved in WWII would not have been possible without Lend Lease. And in typical Russian fashion they then make the country that saved them from the nazis their primary enemy. Only a nation as stupid as the Russians could come to that conclusion. It says alot about those who support them.

Gatling · 01-02-2023 12:01AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185203#Comment_120185203

No nobody said that,

But Ukrainians are better equipped to the point the Russians are stealing clothes off dead Ukrainians

Padre_Pio · 01-02-2023 12:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185013#Comment_120185013

What use is 20 thousand tanks when a single man with a rocket launcher can kill one and block a road for a few hours.

Russia can win battles but won't win the war.

Ukraine cant win battles, but will win this war eventually, since NATO won't allow Ukraine to lose.

macraignil · 01-02-2023 12:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185203#Comment_120185203

Who knows how many russian mobilized troops have suffered from the cold in their bunkers (there have been a number of social media reports of their troops complaining about what they have to cope with) but the most recent material I read on their accomodation in occupied Ukraine stated that many are staying in houses that have been abandoned by Ukrainians who have fled their homes fearing getting killed by the invading troops or have been rounded up and forcibly "evacuated" by the russian troops. I think I read somewhere as well that it has been one of the mildest recorded winter seasons in Ukraine so mud is still a major factor reducing the capacity for rapid movement when in other years more ground would have been frozen. It is only the russians who have ignored the conditions and got thousands of troops killed for very little territorial gain. The russians are pushing forward at huge cost and very little gain from what I see reported.

TheValeyard · 01-02-2023 12:14AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185118#Comment_120185118

Apparently they are less advanced than ATACMs but for cheaper and available in large numbers. Might be a better fit.

Some assembly required !

Gatling · 01-02-2023 12:37AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185322#Comment_120185322

Definitely less advanced than ATACMs and Smaller,but they can launch multiples at the same time, where the ATACMs is a single strike,Melitopol , Mariupol and parts of Crimea will now be in range

01-02-2023 12:41AM

Seems like US refused to send Ukraine DPICM 155 artillery shells to Ukraine,but it found the way trough Turkey instead,because of legal issues,Washington is barred from exporting DPICM “because of its high dud rate”.

The DPICM round is basically a multipurpose round that can either explode on impact or it can release 88 submunitions from a certain height,so it comes under cluster bombs.

US have millions of these rounds in stock

They have a devastating effect on both armoured vehicles and personell,even in trenches,and Russia have used cluster bombs since the beginning of the war and every conflict they have been in,so why shouldnt Ukraine use them too.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/give-ukraine-right-artillery-ammo-dpicm

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/01/11/foreign-policy-turkey-began-sending-ukraine-artillery-fired-cluster-bombs-in-late-2022-en-news

https://youtu.be/zBuLcpYhgRw

Virgil° · 01-02-2023 12:45AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185322#Comment_120185322

They're an order of magnitude cheaper. 40k'ish vs 1mil a shot. So you can literally have 25 of the things to every ATACMS.

They're only inferior in terms of firepower(which isn't needed for ammo dumps or vehicles) and range to the ATACMS. They are accurate to 1m up to 150kms. So in a sense they are less advanced.

They're so cheap you could also use them to hit individual tanks. They can also course correct mid flight to hit moving vehicles.

In addition to this they're small so they'll slip past radar and most other anti air detection systems(which they can also be used to attack).

I've said it before but i believe these will be the real gamechangers in Ukraine. A few thousand of these rockets will spell a very bad day for the Russians.

cnocbui · 01-02-2023 12:48AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183293#Comment_120183293

Apparently, this conflict has caused the Moldovans to not want anything to do with Transnistria, according to an opinion poll. The only way it gets dealt with is if Orcs there attack Ukraine and they go in and deal with every last one of them and the top echelon of their supporters. 15 % of Moldovans are pro Orc/Transnistria.

01-02-2023 12:56AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185383#Comment_120185383

Smaller,stealthier,cheaper,accurate to 1 meter ,can hit moving targets,have a programmable fuse,can penetrate 1 meter of steel reinforced concrete,perfect for bridges.

Can also be used for surveillance and hit many targets at the same time,or many at one single target at the same time,like a bridge.

It will no matter give the russians a bad day

01-02-2023 01:17AM

Some good logic and explanation to this update from Ukraine,to why the offensive have slowed down

https://youtu.be/SZpHYK9lnrY

Dufflecoat Fanny · 01-02-2023 04:10AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185402#Comment_120185402

Only a matter of time before the likes of these are sent into orbit to loiter until needed. By the millions.

seenitall · 01-02-2023 04:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120182810#Comment_120182810

Meh, I wouldn’t give him that much credit, to think he’s a stupid useful idiot - he’s not, he’s a snide first-class narcissist. This thing is about the internal politics more than anything else. He will say and do just about anything to put up an opposition to the PM, has done from day one whatever the topic, up to the point you’d think it’s personal, and their rivalry is now starting to get embarrassing for the whole country. Of course, an element in this is also the fact that he comes from the political left.

The PM has also lost the recent parliamentary vote he wanted to get passed, to help train Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia, by a narrow margin. This shows the old, and bitter, ideological rivalries of left vs. right are still rather alive, much more so than for example right after the war of independence etc. It’s very disappointing, considering the parallels between these two countries.

Francie Barrett · 01-02-2023 08:03AM

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1620680918263529477?t=hl7B1h4KjuhLHB2I4K8ePg&s=19

🤪🤪🤪

eoinbn · 01-02-2023 08:29AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185278#Comment_120185278

Who is 'they'? Germany?! Your post makes no sense. It is a rant against Russia even though I was talking about German production in WW2.

What about my post makes me a Russophile? I don't mention the word orc? That I don't say Russia is doomed and has no chance?

As it went completely over your head let me try again.

Wartime economies can produce vast quantities of arms. I used Germany in WW2 as an example as Russia is in a similar position today. Isolated and needing to do it on it's own(and run by a bunch of Nazis - anti Russian enough for you?).

Given time a wartime Russia will be able to produce huge amounts munitions and arms. Will the Russian people support such action? Hopefully not, but only time will tell.

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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