Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Yes, but that will be just for concrete products not on stone. **** disaster really and once the big suppliers do it the smaller ones will follow suite

I don't think that's necessarily true, the exact same thing happened around the Brexit vote in 2016 in the UK, buyers wanted to pay less out of fear of Brexit impact, sellers weren't willing to discount, the market just seized up for a while then continued on. A lot depends on the timing and depth of any recession, the amount of time interest rates are hiked for, any response to recession in lowering rates etc. All of that is highly unpredictable. Sellers holding out for a while because they see interest rate spikes as temporary is probably rational at the moment. Don't forget if they sell and rates start to come down when they are buying a replacement they get hit by rising prices. There is a narrative that this inflation spike is temporary.

I'm hearing a lot of previously bearish commentators declaring inflation is dead (US/Canada). These would be commentators that flagged it well before we heard the word transitory

McWilliams is also saying it will go away in 2023

An interesting media anomaly. I think it was Pat Kenny or the hard shoulder, last week, had a piece on inflation in used car prices prepping consumers to be ripped off with the usual industry lobbyists spouting why you must pay twice the usual price with yesterday's news on chips, Brexit etc meanwhile a US podcast I regularly listen too had piece titled "Carmageddon" where present and future trends show a glut of used and new cars coming to the market driving down prices. Glut of chips on the market and rising rates leading to defaults and repossessions.

Beware of Irish media and chancers in business milking a crisis. Retail sales fell in November and December in the UK and US this is despite high inflation. We have reached the point where the consumer is saying no

Depressing:(...and yet all forecasts for further price rises in properties

Interesting that all the banks have left the variable rates untouched since the ECB rises have started, wonder how long that can last.

It's a very murky market these days, the various rate quotes might not available in practice, because a bank can just decline or delay the application so long etc. and rate rises are happening so quickly.

Banks dont "lend out" deposits anymore

My AIP rate was 2.05% back in September, my loan off rate earlier this week was 2.7% 😕

I managed to avoid the latest PTSB rate increase of 0.5% announced last week by 1 day which was very lucky, I probably would have pulled out if I had to eat that increase too.

Well they must be talking out of their a$$ how can someone date check the 1st of March for 10% more on a specific commodity. I mean with level of insight they could make fortune on trading this commodity they must be Nostradamus reincarnated. So your theory is on the 1st of march 10% more please for blocks?. Even do demand is down due to construction coming to a near halt is there any chance of a name check of who your getting this information from?. You either have a vested interest or your spinning. The government levy on blocks is going to be pushed out till September.

Watch prices even with the high demand we have in the country and lack of properties when the interest rates go higher and higher watch demand run for the hills due to affordability. What will they do then well by your logic rise prices by another 10% see how much blood we can get. The majority of people living in the country cannot afford to buy or rent or extend. At some point this has to kick in with the construction industry or they will hit the wall.

That was because there was still activity and demand going on throughout that period on a personal note I knew of 2 family members and at least 5 other friends/work collogues who between 2009 and 2012 got extensions. As I pointed out in my previous point then there is gong to be stand off as people cannot afford the offerings that are put on the table in front of them from construction companies so either prices drop or construction companies hit the wall and its not just concrete or bricks these lads are making a nice tidy sum in their pockets as well. I mean I had a lad quote me 1200 for pouring a bit of concrete for a shed there the other day I laughed and as closing the door said no thanks. I truly believe that this year is the turning point where people will be a lot more careful with their wallet with regards to gouging.

They went from building 50+k houses a year to a few extensions and you think it did not effect demands back then.

Local plant formerly an Independent but now roadstone owned left all independent trucks go and parked up a load more.

Extension work is the option that people turn too when they are locked out of selling and/or buying a property. Now think about that someone trying to trade up over the last 5 years - there is feck all on the market to trade up too so that's when the extension is looked at and this has been the case for the last 5 years add in we built maybe 100k new builds in that period as well.. Be interesting to get a breakdown of the %s of extension work with regards to the overall construction output but I would be shocked if it wasn't a high % over the last 5 years.

Just as a snapshot also the figures for extensions and this figure does not include those that do not require planning permission

Q3 2022

1930 planning permission granted for new dwellings

3736 planning permission granted for extensions, alterations and conversions.

Q2 2022

2161 planning permission granted for new dewllings

2949 planning permission granted for extensions, alterations and conversions.

Q1 2022

2432 planning permission granted for new dwellings

3246 planning permission granted for extensions, alterations and conversions.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pp/planningpermissionsquarter22022/

Shares typically bounce back on news of redundancies, because investors think that by cutting staff costs, profitability increases.

And in fairness its often right. In this case especially, most of the firing is due to previous over-hiring.