Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Best of luck!

If you’re comfortable paying the rate you’re currently being quoted for 5 years, go for it. It seems like the days of extremely low interest rates are gone for the forseeable, but hopefully when your renewal comes up, you’ll be paying less!

And if you’re comfortable with the current value of the house and it’s going to be your forever home, even if there is a massive crash, if won’t matter too much as you won’t be in negative equity and stuck and unable to move.

On the other hand, in December I went to view a house in Citywest, and there were offers for about 470K against an asking price of 440K. It wasn't the end of it, I didn't like the house and did not put an offer in, but the price may have gone up since.

In the UK mortgage rates have increased very fast, and are probably going down already, but here it looks like banks have been cautious and have avoided applying the same increases. Rates have gone up only slightly here, if I'm correct, and it's possible they will only raise a further 0.5% until the situation in Europe stabilizes.

Of course this is my guess, which means nothing, but it's more than possible that neither Irish banks nor FF/FG want house prices to drop significantly, and they're doing everything in their power to sustain these high market prices.

The next phases of some new developments seem to have kept prices steady, but I've noticed small increases, rather than reductions. The second hand market may be impacted if there are job losses here, or other factors like landlords exiting the rent market, but again my guess is that it will take much more than that in order to see huge changes to house prices this year.

I was looking at a property last week that I knew from the property register had an asking price 15%+ under market value for the street. A friend went to have a look and said there was quite a few people there and I’d say there’ll be a bidding war starting.

However I was keeping an eye on two other properties on Auctioneera the last few weeks that just weren’t reaching their asking price. Similar properties sold for a bit more than those asking prices last year. They’ve now disappeared and haven’t moved sale agreed. Wonder if the vendors pulled them.

But two particular houses were advertised few months ago and now they are not advertised but 100% still for sale and not sold or sale agreed.

Another house was for sale for good few months then it dissappear sign and all, now for sale sign back again in the front garden but not online.

Strange.

True daft put their price up.

Only government money will be buying them. Private work will be a dead duck in my opinion.

I hear its going in the opposite direction and that all construction materials will be falling over the next 6 months as demand for work like extensions has fallen off a cliff for construction work as its just too expensive and throw in that by the end of March interest rates for any loans for such work will have gone up by at least another 1% ergo the raw materials used in construction are in less demand. Where are you getting your info from?

Really then why has construction in all areas contracted for 7 of the last 8 months in 2022? New builds are only ramping up in the last 18 months and with that the work on new builds has slowed to a crawl and with the lack of available property to buy over the last 4/5 years people have chosen to get work done in their existing dwelling as the choice to move was simply not there. So extensions have driven construction costs a hell of a lot more than new builds.

It could be higher it definitely wont be lower that's for sure. 250 a month extra that is some amount of extra to pay for a mortgage.

You'd imagine that the retail rate would be minimum 2% above the base rate even more for Ireland where repaying is optional even for members of government.

Guaranteed information from one supplier in Ireland

Are you referring solely to concrete blocks? That’s going up because of the govt 10% levy on concrete

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2022/0929/1326272-concrete-blocks-levy-provokes-unease-on-back-benches/

I shouldn’t have mentioned blocks, of course it’s all concrete with the concrete levy. so you think there’s another 10% going on in April?

It always seems as a market starts to turn downwards, there’s a stage where sellers start to capitulate on what their property will sell for. EA body Propertymark in the UK has released a report that almost 3/4 of sellers there have unrealistic, overpriced expectations.

I imagine people see the year-on-year prices being up and don’t look deep enough to see those increases were from the first half of last year, and are all but gone to minus now anyway.

We have 8 straight months of drops in YOY prices here and will see those increases slashed very quickly over the next few months. If and when they turn into YOY decreases, the temperature may change.

I know what you’re saying but that doesn’t mean the capitulation stage isn’t a thing in downturns. It happens in pretty much every downturn, people don’t want to think their property is worth less than it was a year ago.

There was a sense in the immediate aftermath of Brexit that the sky was going to fall down, it didn’t and things carried on as they did for the most part. Obviously now the full omnishambles is hitting them hard. Rates and inflation are bursting the bubble there.

I agree it’s going to depend largely on where rates and inflation are. If inflation doesn’t start falling substantially and fast but merely bit by bit, rates aren’t going to go down substantially either.

You’ll also have people not moving because of fear of increased mortgage costs, but some people just have to sell.

Agreed there’s a lot of unpredictability, as ever.