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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    Moldovan bomb squads detonated an 80-kilogram explosive warhead from a Russian missile that fell in the northern part of the country near Larga on January 14

    Moldova is being pulled into the war

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,840 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    I accept it seems ambitious but if we project forward to the end of this war and the demise of Putin, it seems a collapse of the Russian federation and / or a massive internal power struggle (or even a civil war) are almost inevitable outcomes. With it's economy in ruins, a terminal demographic decline, it's military strength spent and most of it's wealth stolen by Putin and the Oligarchs: whatever version of Russia is left is going to be in am absolutely desperate state. That presents an opportunity for nuclear disarmament to be a condition of the lifting of sanctions and a modern, perhaps EU lead, version of the Marshall plan to help rebuild it's economy.

    As you say, no matter who's in charge, they're unlikely to give up their nukes completely but that should be the opening position of whoever's leading the post-war negotiations with the goal of removing their capability to ever use nukes in a first strike e.g. deplete their stockpile to a small percentage of what it is today. Economically, it could even be argued that the reduction in the maintenance bill would be essential for the rebuilding of their nation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,368 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    We all should be scared witless of a collapsed Russia, that would make the Ukrainian crisis look like a little blip, the economic carnage of the world's largest oil producer going kaput, nevermind wheat etc.

    Russia is on it's way to collapse in some form, it's inevitable.

    But this isn't the 1950s.

    Too many Russians have experienced the comforts of the West the past 2 decades, there will be stomach to become the new North Korea.

    They might not even have much oil if China decides to do a bit of land grabbing themselves.

    I wouldn't worry too much about the Germans, whatever targets they set for renewables, they will probably exceed. They won't be putting too many eggs into the basket with Russia again, not unless they are fully sure they will be a reliable partner.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭vixdname


    Completely agree, no one knows what way this war will go, dismiss nothing as anything is possible, especially when you're dealing with the scum that is Russia



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭Cordell


    where we all pick sides and hope the baddy gets his ass whooped by the good guy.

    We don't pick sides in this one. It's Russia vs. the western world which include Ireland with all its neutrality. If you don't believe me, have a look at the latest gas/oil/electricity bill. That's the economic side of the war.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,437 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I feel bad for the young Russian people who are opposed to Putin and the war. They know full well they are living in an absolute kip of a country and with a dictator in charge. It must be a bit soul destroying.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Germany is much more dependent on China, Russia's older and much nastier Communist sibling.


    Frying pan fire and eggs in one basket etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭vixdname


    No, we all pick sides, you, me and most of the rest of the civilised world chooses Ukraine, the russians, Indians, Iranians, NKs and other pariahs choose Russia - so yep we all pick sides.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,778 ✭✭✭timmyntc




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,306 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    You sound very aggressive.

    NATO members haven't been attacked. They are a defensive union. They are training and supplying weapons and intel. What more do you want?

    The EU is not a military alliance. They can't influence on individual countries military policy. They can lead on sanctions, aid, etc. Which they are doing. What more do you want?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭Cordell



    I understand what you're saying but I still maintain that we don't get to pick sides on this war. The side was picked for us by the very fact we're living in the western world. We have a choice still to support the right side, or to not care at all despite the effect we're feeling on the cost of living, or make the misguided (or straight up bought) choice to support Russia, or to be useful idiots spreading russian talking points and propaganda like urging Ukraine to the peace talks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Probably inevitable, disagree with Ropcke, Russia have paid a very large price to take the town, Wagner group broke its back.


    They will be sad it fell in Kyiv but confident that Russia can't take cities now if they struggled to take a town of 10k over such a long period.


    No doubt that the casualties on the Ukrainian side are in the thousands as well



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,368 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Dependence is a too way street.

    There is a reason Xi slapped the nuclear rhetoric out of Puttins mouth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,778 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    I think it may be overly optimistic to think that the Russians have spent their forces now. Now is the time to ramp up the military aid and strengthen the defenses - summer 23 will be a particularly bloody one I'd bet. Russians will no doubt continue pushing to encircle Bakhmut (which may fall by late Spring if Russian advance isnt stopped) and then begin the slow push west towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostantianivka.

    Now is the time to create more lines of defence, entrenched vehicle positions, minefields, the works.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Agreed.


    They have damaged deeply what they had but in a few months more there may be several hundred thousand more driving West.


    They'll never take Kyiv but the risk that they will take an awful lot more of the South East is real.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,185 ✭✭✭Polar101


    I really don't feel like that's the case.

    • Without western support, it's likely the war would have ended in Russia's favour already - the anti-tank and anti-air weapons provided by the west have made a big difference.
    • There have been major sanctions against Russia
    • Energy purchases from Russia have, if not stopped, at least reduced dramatically
    • There's plenty of political and popular support to continue opposing the Russian aggression
    • Millions of Ukrainian refugees have been received
    • Emergency aid has been provided to Ukraine (clothes, food, generators etc)

    I think the Western world has shown remarkable unity, which doesn't to me indicate a lack of backbone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,808 ✭✭✭threeball


    Not to mention their overt threats to nuke every European country imaginable. To actual think that some people believe that cowering to these rats in an attempt to appease them will lead to any good outcome is frankly amazing.

    - you can't take Ukraine

    - but I have nukes

    - then go right ahead

    - I'll take the baltics and Poland too if you don't mind.

    - you can't they're in nato and the EU

    - like I said, I have nukes and I'm daft enough to use them.

    - oh alright, but no further, we won't negotiate again.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    He 's just majorly anti EU and gets it in nearly every other post. The Russians really don't like the EU either. IMHO they see it as an actual bigger threat than NATO. You can keep a people afraid of a military enemy handily enough, but a better lifestyle and society enemy on your border not so much. Remember that it's not so long ago that Russia built fences and walls to keep their people in and from going to western Europe for those very reasons. I'd be willing to get a lot of the anti EU sentiment out there is loved by Russia and some of it bankrolled by them.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Exactly. The EU-China trade is wotrh around half a trillion per year, the US trade that again. Russia-China trade? Under 100 billion. Always follow the money. Never mind that the international money has frozen Russia out of leasing, financing, shipping and insurance for the foreseeable future and now nation state level economic funds like Blackrock have placed their chips on the Ukraine spot. It simply boils down to them seeing no profits in backing Russia.

    Russians go on about how "only X% of the world" is actually against them, the problem for them it's the richest percentage and by a goodly margin and far more importantly the majority of international money is against them and has serious leverage with Russia's "friends". So of course China told putin to chill the hell out. If every nation in the UN abstained in the votes for/against Russia, so long as the money said nope, they'd still be screwed.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,934 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    There is a worse nightmare a Ukraine under the control of Russia, giving it control of over 50% of the world bread wheat and 80% of the world's sunflower oil. As well you have all the rest of Ukraines natural resources.

    Russian oil and gas will flow again. It's still flowing just not into Europe. Russia needs a democratic reset.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Yes the Soviets were not pushed about getting POWs returned after WW2. They rightly believed that they were contaminated after living as prisoners in the decadent west. Instead they opted for the insidious operation keelhaul in which the Allies duly complied and returned Cossacks and tartars and Russians some of who had left as far back as 1917 and were never Soviet citizens and they were sent straight to the Gulags. Allied soldiers had often to use violence to round them up and send them off to the Soviet Union. It was all part of the nasty unspoken appeasement of Stalin by the Allies at the end of WW2. Arguably Much more damaging and far reaching than the more famous appeasement of chamberlain pre WW2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    You're wasting your time there - JustTakeTheTrade is trying to mould/ muddy their onscreen utterances and profile. Go back to when they popped up in December, part of the same mantra which is generally anti NATO, anti USA, anti EU etc etc. Instead of being openly anti EU now, they've just resorted to attacking the EU by saying it's useless. If EU states started pouring heavy weaponry into Ukraine, they'd be criticising the EU as escalating the war etc. JustTakeTheTrade is a euphemism for rolling over, let Russia do what it's wants and take their 'cheap gas' etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,934 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I would not accept that. Germany has some of the best tanks and artillery systems in the world. For instance they releasing Leopard tanks would allow 3-500 heavy tanks of the one type into Ukraine. The advantage is you would have one maintenance overhaul and tank recovery system in place.

    You have to understand the way heavy tanks works. They sit at the back of an attack. You would have about 30 of them along with maybe 100 lighter tanks and 2-300 armoured troop carriers. The heavy rapid fire artillery systems are behind the complete lot.

    Those heavy NATO tanks( Challenger, Abrams, Leclerc and Leopards) actually outrange a lot of Russian artillery. They can also take hit from a lot of Russian equipment. It would be there ability to pound through heave fortified positions. These tanks can hit stuff 5+ km away. They knockout another NATO tank 2km away. I expect they could take out Russian tanks at distances greater than that.

    NATO has special equipment to get these tanks across small and larger rivers. the advantage of the Leopards is that it would allow multiple countries to give them to Ukraine.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Yes I agree that "remote possibilities need to be respected and never dismissed".

    That doesn't I presume extend to doing nothing out of fear though. The way it's developing so far is a steady escalation in terms of supplying Ukraine with what it needs. Too slow at times but done at a pace not to scare the horses. If Ukraine keeps boxing clever, they will prevail with this western help in restoring their borders. We can hope for regime change in Russia to speed things up and all Russian citizens outside their state should be working to influence this change. The tragedy of course is the utter human misery and death as a result of the dreams of a few that believe in a great Russian empire.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I would not accept that. Germany has some of the best tanks and artillery systems in the world.

    In theory. They also have some of the best submarines and a long history in making them a deadly weapons programme(U-Boats frightened Churchill a lot more than the Luftwaffe did) and yet a few years ago not a single one of their submarine fleet was ready for sea.

    3-500 main battle tanks? I love where you're getting your figures from. The Germans have only 260 in service in total and the service readiness of those is in doubt after years of a lack of funding to the Bundeswehr. And in the last few days the tank manufacturers themselves have sounded warnings about supply.

    “Even if the decision to send our Leopard tanks to Kyiv came tomorrow, the delivery would take until the start of next year,” Rheinmetall’s chief executive, Armin Papperger, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

    Rheinmetall, which manufactures the battle vehicle’s gun, has 22 Leopard 2 and 88 older Leopard 1 tanks in its stocks. Getting the Leopard tanks ready for battle, however, would take several months and cost hundreds of millions of euros the company could not put up until the order was confirmed, Papperger said. “The vehicles must be completely dismantled and rebuilt,” he added.

    500 tanks is a complete fantasy. This is one area where the Russians have gotten the drop on Europe. Their tanks may be out of date turret tossers and mismanaged with little infantry support, but they have them and lots of them and the means to support them, or support them enough. The quality of numbers. A crappy tank in the field is better than no tank, or one that needs 100k and six months to rebuild to fighting trim and a support system that doesn't yet exist in theatre.

    Nevermind that only a moron in Germany would send all or most of their tanks to a war in another country. Never mind that doing so would be pretty much a direct action by NATO, or seen as one. Proxy wars are delicate things. Both sides need the air of deniability.

    The Americans are extremely well kitted up. They didn't drop the ball like Europe did. Still, I can't see Abrams any time soon and calls for stuff like F-16's are IMHO a joke. What they have done is send a useful number of actually useful Bradleys, ammo and support systems for them. Plus all the other systems and backroom intel they're providing the Ukrainians. They should make a real difference on the ground and with the least support footprint. Look what a dozen or so HIMARS did and how much the Russians loath them.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    There are about 2300 Leopard tanks in NATO countries, talk of 100 tanks alone making significant difference in mounting an offensive


    Germany just needs to allow others to send some of the 2300 Leopard tanks in current use in 13 NATO countries.


    Given the quality and reputation of their tank, it will be Germany that gets the orders for the replacemens.


    So Germany benefit financially, yet solidarity with Russian comrades is still niggling away. It doesn't even have to send it's own stock, what isn't neglected and run down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    Belarus, Russia begin joint air drills

    whats next!

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,934 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    You completely missunderstand the situation. You are highlighting parts but your counterpoint is BS. The tanks supplied will not come from Germany. Outside of Germany there is 2k leopard tanks of various upgrades, however with much the same technology.

    The Germans have a few fears. First the optics of German tanks fighting against the Russians again. Secondly a few of the eastern European countries may well decide to send there complete complement and replace with cheaper Abrams. But there is other sources too Canada has 130 L2 tanks but more interesting it's has 50+ L1 parked up. The L1 would still be adequate for Ukraine but would probably take 6 months to recommission, Greece has a large quantity of L1 tanks as well.

    If Canada sends some then the 400+ target is achievable across all countries. Germany however will lose out as they will not be able to fill replacement orders fast enough.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 11,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭humberklog




This discussion has been closed.
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