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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,458 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,621 ✭✭✭timmyntc




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,009 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Technically it's correct, they are running out of munitions. They are having to use Iranian drones, they are reportedly having to source other countries like N Korea for shells, there's evidence they have had to remove nuclear warheads from older rockets and use those. Russian soldiers (they are down to conscripts and mercenaries now) have been spotted using older and older equipment, they using increasingly aged tanks, their navy has drawn right back, their air-force doesn't have air superiority. The sanctions make it harder for them to maintain their current inventory and makes it harder to build more complex munitions like cruise missiles.

    Of course, they are never going to "run completely dry", but it's clear the good stuff is dwindling and the bad stuff is in a bad state. It's obvious they didn't plan nor expect a conflict of this length and intensity.

    The US officials have been pretty good this conflict, there's a bit of wishful thinking in there and the odd mistake, but overall it's been fairly spot on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,063 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Why is it a bunch of irish civillians think they know more about the military needs and capabilities of Ukraine, than the Ukrainian military does?

    You don't, no matter how smart you think you are, you just dont.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,063 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    ..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,332 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Well I'm no military expert but I think I can state Ukraine will need an airforce with modern planes.

    Their Soviet-inherited airforce is a wasting asset, and they will be moving to Western aircraft at some point, whatever priority level of supplying planes is right now.

    (not response to your post - just a comment...) Placing artificial limits on the Western weapon systems (other than the doomsday weapons like nukes and ICBMs) Ukraine can be supplied with should really be finished with at this stage IMO.

    Putin has already escalated most of the way up the ladder all by himself and thrown the whole kitchen sink (bar wmds) at Ukraine and is almost out of rope.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    That depends on the Civilians.

    Also, analysis of capabilities is relatively simple, if you have an interest in researching the capabilities of various assets. The needs? Not so much.

    Also, nothing discussed on an Internet forum has any bearing on the war. We all know this. It is, however, interesting to discuss.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Here an interesting observation.

    At the moment, a US Navy P8 is currently on overwatch at the Black Sea.

    Flying earlier from it's base in Sigonella, Italy, its currently monitoring ocean traffic on the Black Sea. Interestingly, this is also the airframe purported to have located and tracked the Moskva in the hours prior to it being hit by two Ukranian Neptune anti-ship missiles.

    According to intelligence sources this P-8 left US Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily on Apr. 13, hours before the attack. The Poseidon turned off its trackers, so it could no longer be followed online before reaching the Black Sea coastline, eventually passing on the targeting data to Ukraine forces.

    The aircraft was ‘hidden’ for almost three hours before it appeared again on ADS-B.

    Right now, it has its transponder activated and I'm certain it's making certain sailors on the Black Sea quite nervous...

    Screenshot_20230110-172734_Chrome.jpg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,063 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Thanks for underlining my point. There are no Irish civillians more expert on what the Ukrainian millitary needs and can make use of than actual Ukrainian military leaders who have been asking for X,Y and Z systems to be supplied.

    How's Kaliningrad going, has that imminenet interesting event from 8 months ago happened yet? /s



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,063 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    They did.

    "In the sky, the greatest need is for fighter jets -- F-15s and F-16s of the fourth generation or higher would be sufficient," the country's Air Force tweeted on Thursday, "pilots can learn to fly these with just 2-3 weeks of training."

    No doubrt some expert is going to opine that the 2-3 week time span is some made up nonsense, but there Ukrainian pilots who have already learned to fly F-15s and have flown them. They have been training with the US national guard F-15 squadrons for years, and as I expected, after some digging, I found a comment by a US pilot confirming that during these training stints, they had each had a go flying the others planes. SU-27 pilots got to fly F-15s and vise versa.

    They are not going to learn the entire suite of capabilities and operational paramaters in that time frame, but they would learn enough to help their country survive and push back and would learn the rest on the job. Obviously US officials wouldn't think it ideal, but their civillians aren't being bombarded every day and dying and their country isn't fighting for it's very existence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,062 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Are there f15 s available ?

    Or surplus f-18s sitting somewhere in good knick ,

    It'd take only take a squadron or two with the right long range missiles to change things .. a squadron worth of pilots might not be that easy to come across though ,

    And then there's the maintainers and techs ...20 or 30 per plane ? More in combat conditions ?

    And the Ukrainians are operating off austere runways , moving around a lot to avoid being targeted with cruise missiles,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,458 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,458 ✭✭✭zv2




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Because who ever rules the air rules the battlefield

    F16 is a multirole fighter and can be used for SEAD missions with anti radiation missiles like aargm,but also as a ground pounder and air to air role.

    As a ground pounder and with the sniper pod you can take out targets from quite a long distance using laser guided bombs.

    I am pretty sure US would love to see how their newest aim 120 and aargm missiles do agains russian aircraft and air defences,same with newer bombs like the Paveway GBU 18

    Israel have used f16 before against russian air to air defences in Syria before with great success

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭jmreire



    Well, if you have watched the TV series about El Chapo the Mexican drug lord and the inter cartel fighting, it will give you a pretty good idea how the Russian Mafia behave.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, Putin introduced a new category of registrations too. It was for any group or individual , foreign or local deemed to be not 100% supportive of the state had to register as a "Foreign Agent" ( I think that was the term?? )



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    2 British civilian volunteers missing since Friday in soldar ,both were evacuating people and casualties,their land Rover was will known in the area ,





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Denmark recently retired a number of F16s upward of 50 with modern upgrades



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,063 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Well the Orcs confirmed the number with their counter claim of having killed that number of ukrainians in reprisal.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,063 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    As I mentioned in a previous post, another attack via Belarus has been anticipated and preperations made.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭macraignil


    image.png

    Not in any way claiming to know more about what the Ukraine armed forces need than any one else but the figures for destroyed russian aircraft during the recent escalation of hostilities points to a very dangerous environment there for any type of conventional aircraft. 285 airplanes and 275 helicopters lost by the russians in less than a year and I have seen many comments that the russians have started to keep their aircraft very far away from Ukraine due to the risk of being shot down by the improved performance of modern anti aircraft missiles. Just did a quick search on the price of an F16 and this link claims a recent version was selling for 64million dollars. If Ukraine lost 100 of these at that price it would be at a cost of over 6billion dollars and also be accompanied with the loss of valuable pilots when the same amount invested in missile systems and their developing drone industry might yield better results in removing the invaders from their land. I can understand why the Ukrainian forces might be asking for F16 but maybe those countries that have been slow to provide them recognise that the lifespan for such aircraft in an active war zone with russia still likely to have active anti aircraft missile systems might mean the Ukrainians could be better served with other weapons instead. I'm just saying that maybe the military tacticians of the nations supporting Ukraine might know a bit more of what is happening in the war there than we can see in Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    2 civilians were wounded as result of shelling in Schebekyne town of Belgorod region


    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    For some reason, you keep mentioning "Irish Civilians". Does the nationality of a poster matter that much to you?

    By the way, your posts are almost impossible to read. Might I suggest some self-editing before hitting that "post" icon. English isn't our first language, you see.

    Kind regards,

    An Irish Civilian....


    😉



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @macraignil Just did a quick search on the price of an F16 and this link claims a recent version was selling for 64million dollars. If Ukraine lost 100 of these at that price it would be at a cost of over 6billion dollars and also be accompanied with the loss of valuable pilots when the same amount invested in missile systems and their developing drone industry might yield better results in removing the invaders from their land.

    I think your over thinking it ,

    Ukraine is Still flying migs and Su aircraft most days carrying out Harm /wild weasel missions and for a very contested battle space full of Russian manpads and anti aircraft missles,they can't seem to stop Ukrainian jets and helicopters flying,

    As I said above the Danes have only recently retired 50 + F16s that wouldn't cost 6 billion every time Russia shoots down 100 , it would be expensive but if they used them along side something like a MQ9 drone,use the drones to select target's for Lazer guided bombs ,nato aircraft could in theory help with electronic warfare and then you bring a flight of F16s to fly fast into an area drop their smart bombs and be back in safe airspace before the Russians can react ,

    The biggest losses for Russian aircraft came due to the stupid believe that Ukraines anti aircraft systems didn't exist or didn't work so they sent aircraft into ukraine with air 2 ground munitions Only to face Ukrainian jets with air 2 air missles who chased and engaged the Russians fairly quickly,

    Now the Ukrainans have tens of thousands of anti aircraft missles/ manpads all over ukraine,

    The Russians don't have the numbers of manpads or concentrations of air defenses , Russian military doctrine has always been the same, thousands of tanks and tens of thousands of men rushing into a country backed up with lots of artillery,

    They aren't geared for modem fast moving wars ,

    Where the US and Nato trained specifically to counter Russias armour and artillery,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Sure when they do I wonder how many new accounts will suddenly appear to tell us they always knew it was going to happen........



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,014 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    "SEAD mission"

    Had to google that. Disappointed to see it means "Suppression of Enemy Air Defence". I thought it would be more "Seek Enemy And Destroy". Be much scarier then!

    On Bahkmut, there's loads of Wagners fighting away there for the baldy Russian lad. Is it all for control of the salt mine? Isn't that baldy Russian lad cleaning up with mines in Syria too. And if there's loads of Wagners there fighting away each and every day, why aren't a few big missiles dropped on gatherings of them. Surely via satellites and what not they can be found and targetted. I don't get it. Intelligence services were able to find parked planes in Russia a few days ago, that ship that was sunk months back, 600 Russians watching telly a few days ago. Why can't they find the Wagners and drop something on them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @roosterman71 "SEAD mission"

    Used to be known as Wild weasel missions,



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,063 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You aren't claiming any expertise, but you claim experts in the west are more knowledgeable about what's best for Ukraine than the Ukrainian millitary.

    How has that often stated paradigm worked out historically?

    Pentagon spokesman John Kirby has stated that the Patriot systems would require American soldiers on the ground and that training Ukrainian personnel on the advanced-capability interceptors was not an option.

    This was back in May 2022, when this person was advocating that ukrainians should at least be getting training on using the Patriot system: https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/us-patriot-missile-ukraine

    So who was right Ukrainian officials asking for Patriots back in May, or John Kirby saying it wasn't an option, given the ukrainians are going to start training on the system any minute now?

    Ukrainian troops may arrive in the U.S. to train on the advanced Patriot missile system as soon as the coming week, CNN reported Tuesday, citing officials familiar with the matter.

    My view is that if Ukraine is asking for something then they know best as to how much use it would be to them and whether they can make good use of it. The insinuation they are just randomly asking for stuff without having realistically thought it all through is insulting and at odds with everything Ukraine has done and shown the world since the invasion.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


This discussion has been closed.
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