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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,051 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Does Putin think that he can just conscript hundreds of thousands of unwilling young Russian men with no blowback? Think about it - you have nearly 1 million Russian men who have fled the country rather than be enlisted, and that's just the ones who've had the gumption to get up and go. How many multiples of that are keeping their mouths shut, but are really thinking that this whole war is a bad idea and they don't even know why it's being fought? What logistics does Russia have to feed and clothe these men, never mind arm them, to make their pre-slaughter lives that bit more bearable? If these conscripts know they're being sent to what is an almost certain death in a war they don't even necessarily agree with, then there's not a whole lot to stop them refusing orders. At worst, they get shot by their own side for doing so. Same result for them with less steps.

    Russian oligarchs are wandering out of windows, protests have been quashed and hundreds of thousands of not-very-enthusiastic conscripts are being rounded up. There are surely a lot of Russians in Russia with bad thoughts against Putin right now, and while it might seem like he has an iron grip on his country, the pressure below the surface is building, and when it erupts, it won't end well for Putin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,740 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    What if they targeted the Russian Vodka factory? Would it help or hinder?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,380 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    Even if the recruits were poorly trained or armed they would at least stretch the Ukrainians if they gathered near a border in various places .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,018 ✭✭✭jmreire


    DO NOT TOUCH !!!! Vodka factory's are the greatest asset to Ukraine.. just try to imagine the unimagineable....a sober Russian Army. Unthinkable!! They might even start making rational decisions on the battlefield.

    🤣🤣🤣



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,322 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Don't underestimate a rabble Podge. If it's a big enough rabble.

    Looking at Russian(& Soviet) campaigns and tactics of the past, the opening rounds are nearly always a shítshow. They overrun an area and then when anything like competent forces oppose them they get routed, or run to a standstill(usually the former). Then they regroup, sometimes with better tactics, but alongside better tactics they(like the Chinese) always use what they always had a lot of; people. People they didn't care about losing in huge even obscene numbers. People who themselves were eager, or eager enough to die for the motherland in obscene numbers. Look at some of the insane(to us) nonsense on their TV. "Life is overrated" etc.

    I remember reading a book on the war in the east in WW2. Max Hastings IIRC(always a bloody good source IMHO). And there were estimates of the "kill ratios" of Germans Vs Russians and the smaller number held that for every German they killed, at least eight Russians died in the balanc. Some estimates ran higher, more like twelve to one. If Germany and the Soviet's numbers had been roughly equal going in it's almost certain that instead of Moscow fancying themselves as the Third Rome, they'd be in the Third Reich

    The losses we're seeing, even if it's only a fraction of the spin, would have most western democracies crying foul on the home front. Regardless of what spin we believe or not, Russia(and Ukraine) have lost more people, likely way more people, than the US did in the War On Terror/Where's The Oil At over twenty years, in less than a year. We're looking at a war not seen since WW2 or even WW1 in casualties both sides are willing to take. Over Christmas I was having a convo with an uncle of mine in his mid 90's and he pointed that out to me. He's been keeping an eye on this insanity and that's what struck him. He never thought he'd see this again.

    Now the Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland. This gives them a major advantage. The problem is the Russians, or enough of them are convinced or have been convinced that they're fighting for Russia too. They believe they're taking "Russia back".

    I can see this going on for years. Even if there was to be a ceasefire, Russia has a crap record on agreements. Look at today's Julian Christmas "ceasefire". Cease.... Fire!!

    But I still contend that Russia has already lost, and across the political, economic, social and "moral" spectrum with it. They've shown themselves up to be the one thing that will always hit them hard and has for centuries; they now look like ignorant barbarians. Ukraine will win in the end, but at a terrible price. And "we" have to help them win. TBH I wish "we" could make the Russian people win in the longterm, because they so deserve better and contrary to the "they're all orcs!!" fúcking retarded jingoistic bullshít, they're more than capable of being better, much better, but sadly that's a much harder task. 😔

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,018 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes. There has to be a buildup of anti-war, anti Putin sentiment at this stage, but Putin is the master of jumping on and destroying any kind of rebellion, even the smallest trace of it. Little old Lady holding a white flower on the street in Moscow arrested and whisked away within minutes. Maybe in the republics, and Samara could be a starting point, as that was where most of those killed in the recent bombing of the school in Makiivka were from. For sure, I would not like to be the recruitment officer sent there to start the next round of mobilizations. At some point in time, the cracks will become too wide to cover up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    One person killed as result of Russian missile strike in Merefa, Kharkiv region


    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,043 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Enter with what though? The Baltic states have tiny armies and wouldn't be able to attack anyone. Finland has a reserve force, but they wouldn't be mobilised unless the country itself was invaded.

    Poland might do something, who knows.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Wibbs

    Russia hasn't faired well in wars since the end of WW2 it was all great and dandy massacring civilians in Hungary and the Czechoslovakia,

    But they got their arses handed to them in Afghanistan,and dagistan , Chechnya twice (and only claimed victory by killing large numbers of the civilian populations)

    Remember during WW2 they had the advantage of home soil and a badly prepared German military forces that fared well until winter and lack of winter supplies hit home ,the Russians were motivated and the Germans were fighting across Europe as well as Russia they were never going to succeed,

    This Time around the Russians are ill prepared and they aren't motivated to fight to the death, poorly trained and equipped vs a modern revitalized military force that didn't exist 9 years ago,a military and population fighting for their lives and their rights to exist ,

    The Russians are fighting for what,they don't know, whats the end game ,they don't know, what's the current plan,they don't know.

    Raping and murdering people on an industrial scale ,and you wonder why they are called Orc's,

    Subhuman scum and they are dieing in there thousands a week,

    Why they don't know why,

    but they dieing horrifying deaths 24/7 for no reason they know of .

    It's not 1945 anymore

    Post edited by Gatling on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,051 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I don't thinking the quashing of dissent is doing Putin any real favours anyway. All it does is push the resentment into the more secretive avenues. We're not going to see it because by design it would not want to be seen. Yet.

    More than suppressing protest, Putin will be keen to keep the consequences of protracted and bloody war from the doorsteps of middle class urban Russians. An aim that will become progressively more difficult than to achieve as time goes on.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,018 ✭✭✭jmreire


    The point is with Putin, he has always quashed dissent...just look at the very first Oligarch he "quashed"...the richest and most powerful of them all, Khodorkovsky, He made an example of him, and the writing on the wall was crystal clear for all the other's, what I have done to him, I can and will do to you if you get any ideas like him and try an challenge me. And so the stage was set. Its something he is well used to throughout his dictatorship. Like I mentioned, Samara is one possible flashpoint for protests to break out, and who knows if it would be the spark to break the log jam? That there is an undercurrent of dissent creeping in is inescapable, when he ordered the mobilization of 300'00 conscripts, and 700'000 + left the Country speaks volumes about dissent. We will see what happens if and when he calls for the mobilization of 500'000. That will be interesting to see how that goes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,726 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    You simply can't take back an independent state by force at this time in history so why are the west allowing it to drag on, when in fact they could end it tomorrow. Years ago the str ongest ruled, you could do what you liked, but not today

    It's like Mexico today trying to take back Texas, California, Arizona, Nevada,Utah, New Mexico,Colorado, all the land the US annexed from them, but it's simply not feasible at this moment in history.

    US and Nato need to end it now, drive Russia out



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,083 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    river.png

    The blue line I drew is the Bakhmut river.

    Unless Ukraine can reverse things soon, I fear they will end up needing to withdraw to positions to the west of it. The front Ukraine are defending is very wide, with very limited crossing points to supply it. The current situation doesn't look sustainable.

    If Ukraine had more artillery/ammo, they would not be in this position. Unfortunately the powers that be and most people on this forum seem to think that Ukraine has everything it needs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    How could the west end it tomorrow? Realistically the only way they could intentionally end it in a day is a massive conventional attack on Russia and hope Russia doesn't retaliate. Or do you have another option?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 853 ✭✭✭mikewest


    Can you reread what you posted Toby please. Only your Russia are trying to take anything and all they need to do is feck off back home for peace to break out all over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Nobody on here believes Ukraine has all they need.

    I think everyone here has been calling for more of everything and tanks, fighter jets, ATACMS, I'd even toss in the JDAMS, cruise missiles and the SAAB rocket bombs. I've no idea why you assume people on here are content with what Ukraine has received. Ludicrous statement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,726 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    They would not even need to fire a single bullet, all they'd need to do is draw the line, and make it very clear that if Russia cross it there will be consequences, like giving Ukraine everything they request to defend themselves, long range missiles, fighter jets, ect



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Some people want Ukraine to surrender and be defeated by the orc's,

    It's not happening



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So what would this line be?

    And all this equipment you mention can be in Ukraine in a day and cause Russia to surrender in a day?

    I didn't know F16's had a 24hr crash training course!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    At least Macron made a decent new years resolution!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    All we need now is people to stop telling us what the Russians social media accounts are claiming how the Russians are winning,

    Bakhmut and soledar are prime examples Russians have taken them every night for 9 months so we're told



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Yup, only hear of the Russian advances (as in they gained maybe 500m) then the next day UA push them back and that's not mentioned. Scroll through the timeline of the territory on the maps and it's a constant back a forward for land.

    We're now peak propaganda where Russia loose a major city, Kherson (the only major city they took) so now taking a village/town for them is a win!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,397 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Sick of checking twitter for news. Latest info full of Russian bots. Of course posting videos showing bad losses for Ukrainians but when you scroll past the first 20 replies which are also bots you see over half these videos are actually Russian soldiers suffering.


    Bakhmut and co have held on now for about 2 and a half month's of non stop attacks. I just hope the frontline hasn't shifted to Kramatorsk come march or April.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,130 ✭✭✭purplepanda


    There will be more opposition demonstrators against this meeting taking place, than the deluded numbers attending. It's outrageous that a church will be allowing these Putin supporting warmongers to enter a place of worship.

    Post edited by purplepanda on


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,322 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The Russians are fighting for what,they don't know, whats the end game ,they don't know, what's the current plan,they don't know.

    Of course they know what they're fighting and dying for. From the top down, to the grunts in the field on Telegram, they say they're fighting and dying for Russia. They see Ukraine, particularly east and south Ukraine as Russia. They see Crimea as Russian as Saint Basil's Cathedral in Moscow. That and fighting against their "subhuman scum", "nazis" in Ukraine and all that nonsense.

    And the cherry on top they think they're fighting against NATO and more they think they're in an existential struggle of Mother Russia against the "decadent West" that they must win or Russia herself falls and what few children they have will be put in Gay education camps or something. They're very clear about all this and putin and his spin minions constantly reinforce these points.

    Maybe some take some kind of simplistic comfort to think of them as orcs, mindlessly ploughing on, but it's bollocks.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Jesus, for a few seconds there I thought that was a North Korean recruitment video aimed at Chairman kims Mini Micks.

    Dan.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sounds Orc like thinking to me.

    If it rages and acts like an Orc… it’s an Orc.

    Regardless of the origin/reason for them acting like Orcs (raping, torturing, looting, war crimes) it is irrelevant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,458 ✭✭✭zv2


    A note on Prystaiko's statement on losses. They include civilian and military losses and physical damage. They don't tell about military casualties-

    The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, called his country’s military and civilian losses “enormous and indigestible.” Because of this, the diplomat believes, the Ukrainian leadership should not stop at compromise peace talks, and hostilities should continue until complete victory and the return of all territories occupied by the Russian army.

    “We have been at war for almost a year … We are losing people right and left. We do not advertise how many of the missing are military or civilian, but you can imagine that the numbers are huge, indigestible. And the cities, some of them are completely destroyed,” Mr. Prystaiko said about the consequences of the hostilities in an interview with Newsweek.

    Ukrainian ambassador to Britain announced huge and indigestible losses (postsen.com)

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    If they are so keen to remove Western influence they can start by giving back all the planes they stole.

    Then maybe all the electronics that all their machinery depends on.

    Anyway, no one really questions Russia's stamina - aka complete indifference of their leadership to the mass suffering of their troops. Thankfully, I do question their competence though.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,716 ✭✭✭storker


    It's like losing Bray and saying nothing but making a big song and dance because you recaptured Loughlinstown.

    😁



This discussion has been closed.
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