FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

nacho libre · 31-12-2022 05:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049766#Comment_120049766

So there was no displacement or split of the Vortex back in January 1991?I thought there was some kind of warming prior to the cold out break in February of that year?

sryanbruen · 31-12-2022 06:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120050074#Comment_120050074

January 1991 was not a major SSW i.e. the winds did not reverse to easterly at 60N 10hPa, so it is not included here. There was a significant warming nonetheless, like with the January 2017 event if you remember that one and the poor February 2017 easterly that followed 2 weeks afterwards.

nacho libre · 31-12-2022 07:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120050240#Comment_120050240

I thought not. It just goes to show you sometimes a significant warming can be enough to bring out about a cold spell. Let's hope this warming on the GFS is a repeat of that, if we don't actually get a SSW.

PokeHerKing · 01-01-2023 12:39PM

👀🧐

.Donegal. · 01-01-2023 01:35PM

GFS has been awful with its snow predictions since the update even within a 2 3 day range. That said here’s next Sunday

Gonzo · 01-01-2023 01:53PM

I generally find the GFS overplays snow risk from cool/cold zonality and majority of times it's mainly high ground that gets it or just cold rain with snow confined to Scotland instead. The opposite happens with easterlies, usually the GFS underplays precipitation/shower production from cold easterlies.

Gonzo · 01-01-2023 06:42PM

The first possible signs of changes by mid month. GFS 12z tries to get wind into the east with a Scandi high going.

While this is a relatively weak easterly for us, we do draw in -8C uppers across the country and can't go much further than this.

The PV could be taking a bit of a battering by this stage also with an SSW possible around 15th of January.

Derekon2021 · 01-01-2023 07:05PM

Reading one of the more seasoned posters over on NETWEATHER UK, he has stated the first half of January is a write off. In summary, his considered view is that a SSW is now required for any proper cold into these islands. He advises folks take a 10 day break from model watching- things may then change from mid month for cold lovers Sounds like good advice! Oh and a Happy New Year to you all

D

Hooter23 · 01-01-2023 07:56PM

The charts are a disaster and are all over the place..think that US freeze has messed up the weather pattern and we could end up with any kind of weather in the next few weeks...charts have a harder time than usual trying to predict because of this

bazlers · 01-01-2023 08:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053173#Comment_120053173

Personally, to say to give up or write off l half a month is a bit of a strange comment considering we still struggle with forecasts beyond 3 days.

I can see potential for a cold shot in less than 10 days.

red_bairn · 01-01-2023 11:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053335#Comment_120053335

Did we not have something similar last winter with the States getting this type of massive pool of cold or was even further back? Would be interesting to see compare charts from whenever it did happen.

WolfeEire · 03-01-2023 12:40AM

The medium range outlook is as bland as could be. Very dull stuff. Temps around average for the time of year. Very few signs of any change beyond the next ten days.

graphe0__0_0_-7.35849056604_52.995951417_.png

Neddyusa · 03-01-2023 12:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120058230#Comment_120058230

I presume that means wet?

WolfeEire · 03-01-2023 12:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120058242#Comment_120058242

Certainly a lot wetter than last January. For example, the next ten days will deliver more rain for the Shannon met station than all of last January. Highest totals in Atlantic coastal counties.

Gonzo · 03-01-2023 01:14AM

The entire first half of January is pretty much a write off for cold and snow with the westerlies very dominant indeed. Hopefully next week we may begin to see seasonal changes in the models for week 3. If not week 3 then maybe week 4 and by then the clock will start to tick.

Rescue Remedy · 03-01-2023 02:44AM

This is going to come across as pessimistic.

There's an awful sense of deja vu at this early stage of January. We've had so many of these winters where we seek solace in FI. We trundle on to February. By the end of that month we've kind of given up. Right on cue in March easterly or north easterly blasts arrive!

January and deep cold has become what August was to warmth and dry weather... until last August, maybe there's hope there.

January 2018 had wintry spells, January 2010 had 12 very cold days to start. January 2009 was chilly, if not spectacular. After that I'm nearly back to 1991 and 1987 for decent cold spells.

esposito · 03-01-2023 12:08PM

Yep very much deja vu. January rarely delivers as you said (like August for summer weather)

Think it’s February we have to focus on now I’m afraid. Unfortunately when we have conveyor belts of Low’s from Atlantic it always takes a long time to get a new pattern.

Gonzo · 03-01-2023 12:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120059070#Comment_120059070

It's going to take a few weeks for these westerlies to weaken. The jetstream is currently very strong and stable with not much amplification going on and stretches all the way across the northern hemisphere. This is a situation that will prove difficult to shift so confidence is extremely high of the westerlies continuing till at least mid January. At the earliest probably final days of January or 1st week of February for a potential cold spell.

Still watching that SSW potential and the models seem to be backing away from it somewhat with a less convincing warming. We may have to wait till the end of January or early February for a proper SSW if one happens at all. As for the NAO/AO it suggest neutral to slightly positive to continue into mid January so not much support for northern blocking over next few weeks.

nacho libre · 03-01-2023 01:47PM

The GFS in fi is offering some hope of a way out of this, but given its dreadful performance of late i would not be banking on it. Unfortunately it seems to be that January is unfolding as a lot of seasonal models predicted. The activity in the strat could lead to a ssw eventually but no sign of one happening anytime soon, so a cold spell in the heart of winter is looking very doubtful-unless the mjo in phase 7 can somehow lead to a favourable block after mid month,but again that is very unlikely given the strength of the Atlantic now.

Robwindstorm · 03-01-2023 02:06PM

The funny part of it all, despite the pessimism, met eireann have forecast frequent sleet and snow showers in the west and north on Sunday, so there could be a bit of a suprise.

03-01-2023 04:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120058285#Comment_120058285

Crazy how the jet stream is so 'straight'. Here it is at 120+ hours. Goes all the way from the middle of the Atlantic right round to the Western edge of North America.

almostthere12 · 03-01-2023 05:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120059563#Comment_120059563

Surprised by this as looking at the ECM and GFS the uppers don't seem to support snow, they are only at 0C.

PokeHerKing · 03-01-2023 06:45PM

GFS is starting to trend towards blocking from mid month. 12z has an easterly feed around the 17th again 🤞

Gonzo · 03-01-2023 07:41PM

The latest CFS for what it's worth shows mild to continue right into start of February and from mid February to mid March regular properly cold outbreaks from the east and the north.

While this completely misses the heart of winter, I would take it over nothing at all. This has about 0% of verifying but will see over the next few days if the CFS keeps this idea or back to the conveyer belt as usual.

WolfeEire · 03-01-2023 10:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120061169#Comment_120061169

CFS IS the best model

Gonzo · 04-01-2023 11:31AM

and the cold charts are gone from the CFS just like that with mild dominating right into the Spring. Just thought i'd post those CFS charts yesterday as there is absolutely nothing to show but mild charts everywhere else. A quick look at GFS 00z and it's mild from start to finish and taking a look at the ensemble members there aren't any outliers that get properly cold either, just standard winter mild or cool right up to January 20th. After taking Christmas off for the model watching and now that i'm back looking maybe another one week break from model watching might be a good idea and see where we are at in a weeks time.

pauldry · 04-01-2023 01:00PM

Surely we will get our one snowy January morning in Sligo!

But realistically that cold outbreak in December was our memorable moment for Winter 2022/23. At least that was more than many other Winters. Sure they can't even get snow on the Alps now.

My wife asked me yesterday what I thought the rest of January would be like and I said "this" and she gave me a look like it was my fault. I'm only 1 7billionth to blame!

04-01-2023 01:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120063580#Comment_120063580

For what's it's worth since it's so deep in FI, Paddy's Day looking like the same ould muck we have currently. The current pattern really does look locked in doesn't it.

Niall145 · 04-01-2023 02:05PM

Spring basically started on December 18th...

nacho libre · 04-01-2023 02:52PM

Well you know things are getting desperate when the CFS is being rolled out. A few days ago it was showing a very cold end to January. The GFS of late is not too far behind, it swings wildly between output. I think we may still get a brief settled period after mid month due to the MJO. Whether we get a notable cold spell after that is probably dependent on a SSW taking place. Glosea- the UK In house model- is usually good at detecting a signal for that. So if one is to occur around late January or into February you might see it referenced in the UKMO long range by that stage

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Comments

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST