Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2022/2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Well the ECM has been showing some snow potential especially through Sunday as a slack area of LP moves up through the country into a much cooler airmass then of late, the 528dam line could be down over Ireland. The frontal boundary of the LP could produce a mix of wintry precipitation including freezing rain, sleet and snow. Mid levels not that cold according to the ECM, the front would be coming up against -3 to -5C 850hPa temps but with it being an area of LP this might be cold enough to bring down the snow ( albeit wet snow perhaps ) to hills or even lower levels and the timing being shown at present would be conducive to lying snow overnight into the Monday morning. Very conscious this is over 3 days away and as we have seen of late the models have been struggling to give anything accurate more than a couple of days away. But hey this is a weather forum and worth keeping an eye on it to see if we get a one day wonder.

Going into Sunday there could be a fairly widespread frost with low day time temperatures followed by another frosty night which would help stick.

The GFS showing the LP to cross Southern counties and pull away to the SE, some colder 850 hPa temps but not expecting much from it on the present run.

A bit of interest anyway in these lean times for weather observing 😀.

That's some heavy rain to come in overnight into early tomorrow, localized flooding with that amount. Most of the rain will fall in the counties highlighted for warnings in around 13hrs. Plenty of rain to follow behind it into Sat.

ECM showing not far off Orange rainfall warning status in parts of Clare and Galway.

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Met Eireann

Rain

Amounts can be up to double on

windward upper slopes &

impacts vary depending on for

example soil moisture deficits.

Orange Status

30mm – 50mm in 6 hrs or less

40mm – 60mm in 12 hrs or less

50mm – 80mm in 24 hrs

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Has to be stressed that the models keep chopping and changing but that is a tasty set of charts from the GFS 12Z for later Saturday into Sunday as LP's and their fronts come up against cold air. Mind you it would probably be wet snow at best and doesn't look like lasting long on lower ground on these charts but enough to cause a nuisance driving especially on higher terrain. Mountains and hills could keep the snow lying into Monday. Will see what the ECM shows later, did back off a bit on the earlier runs, very narrow margins with timing and positions of the LP's and the colder air.

Big difference between the Hi Res WRF and the ECM Swiss, WRF all out frontal snow with meagre 850 hPa Temps but pressure down to 987hPa, ECM poor wet bulb temperatures except the furthest N for a time so little chance of snow apart from higher ground, widespread frost or sharp frost Sun night.

The other models dont give much of a chance of snow later Sat or Sun going by the mid level temperatures.

Maybe mostly a sleety affair with snow on higher ground perhaps. Roads might be tricky Monday morning due to the wet day on Sunday followed by freezing temperatures in places.

Maybe a bit blustery /windy along the S, SE and E later Sat into early Sun depending on track of the low and if it gets a bit deeper but it doesn't look like producing anything too strong at this stage.

Met Eireann only mentioning sleet at this stage.

Yellow status warning for rainfall over Kerry from Met Eireann, latest ECM 06Z suggests West Cork would fit the same Criteria. Highlights the difficulty of giving the whole county a Yellow warning as a large part of Cork would be well under warning level. Looks like Mountain areas getting the highest rainfall especially on the windward side .

After a brief lull overland tonight it gest breezy to blustery again in the early hours of Tues morning with the frontal passage, bit lighter overland during the day while staying fresh on the coasts and getting windy again early Weds morning especially around coastal counties. Late Weds into early Thurs morning the models picking up possibly strong winds running quickly across the southern half of the country, gone in a few hours but potentially very blustery

Another deep area of LP passing over the country from the W on Thursday morning spreading to all areas quickly, hot on the heels of the one clearing the SE on Thurs morning, with its center just along Northern coasts bringing the strongest winds sweeping over Ireland, possibly gusting 100 to 110km/h along coastal areas ( could see higher on the most exposed headlands perhaps ), 80 to 90km/h in Atlantic coastal counties, 70 to 80 km/h widely over most of Ireland . Very windy along coastal areas and windy overland with some strong gusts to be expected. Heaviest rain along Northern counties it would seem. Could be quite windy in the E Thursday night and only slowly abating towards Friday morning.

More weather queuing up after that, in the early hours of Sat morning a vigorous frontal system with heavy rain sweeping over the country, blustery to breezy to follow overland and windy on coasts and another system early Sunday morning.

Looking at next Tuesday and the gefs ensembles mean is a good bit colder in the GFS 18z compared to 12z. The op run on the milder side, albeit far from mild as it is. No downgrades on conditions conducive for snowfall to occur. It remains a very unstable airflow so the extent and coverage of precip is very hard to gauge 96-120 hours out. Noticeably the low feature has faded out somewhat but there are plenty of heavy, frequent showers pushing down on Tuesday.