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Share Picks 2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,004 ✭✭✭littlevillage

    Disney is now cheaper than it was 5 years ago.... with Bob Iger back in charge we simply have to be approaching some kind of a bottom. But the SP keeps falling.... soo what do I know? anyway for now, I'm hanging on grimly to the couple of shares I have. (I'm underwater by about 30%)

  • Registered Users Posts: 18,533 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    Care to expand?

    Because Bass Reeves announcing he’s not buying doesn’t add up to a hill of beans.

  • Registered Users Posts: 967 ✭✭✭gabbo is coming

    How come EDSA or Edesa Bio doesn't show up as a stock in De Giro?

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,962 ✭✭✭✭Mantis Toboggan

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    It did but was delisted when it dropped below $1. You could ask them to re-list now it’s over $2.

    74% of companies in ‘22 that got fast track approval by the FDA got their drug approved.

    Current market valuation mid $30m. Going to be valued in $billions, in my opinion… do your own research etc. etc.

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    Spiked to $12 in Sep 2021. This has been heavily shorted since, including through dark pools. Not once has the company issued bad news. In September this year the company announced it has a drug with a 84% reduction in deaths for severe Covid/ARDS… and on the same day the share price tanked. It’s a nano company that’s easily manipulated, but has the real deal, imo. They issued a CSR (you’ll need to do some research as to what that is) to the FDA 3 months ago and the FDA has granted them Fast Track approval last week… despite being a penny stock (if EB05 was owned by a large pharma company this drug would already have received its marketing licence, imo).

    But, you tell me why you think this company should be a penny stock?

    Someone mentioned above that 2022 was a dreadful year… I’m giving you/them a company that you/they should do research on… might make 2023 a hell of a lot better. But, you must do your own research.

  • Registered Users Posts: 967 ✭✭✭gabbo is coming

  • Registered Users Posts: 211 ✭✭CoffeeImpala hasn't been removed from Degiro, just unindexed from their search.

    Typing 16073621 into the appropriate place in the address bar of another product will also get you there if you'd prefer to not follow a link.

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    You can ask DEGIRO to relist… they might now after going back over $1 or open an interactive brokers account. Might take a week or so…

    But, ask DEGIRO first I’d say.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,301 ✭✭✭daithi7

    You do realise Stocks are only worth what their future earnings discounted to net present value (NPV) are worth? don't you?!

    So if a stock such as Amazon was once priced at $174, and is now priced at $87, this means nothing. Absolutely nothing!!

    Amazon (& every other company) is only worth, what it's future earnings will be discounted to, in today's NPV.

    That discount rate is directly proportional to the interest rate, and since interest rates are going to go up further from now (from 4.25 % to 5.25% at least according to the Fed in the next 6 months, so by an increase of ~20-25% relatively), this implies the NPV of all companies future earnings (estimates) will fall by a proportional amount.....

    Also, when interest rates go up in a time of high inflation, like we have now, so does the cost of servicing debts, and this affects people's, companies' & countries' spending, & spending power.

    So, we can fairly reliably predict:

    1. future earnings NPV will fall by another ~20% from current levels in the next 6 months

    2. Actual earnings will also fall due to lower consumer & corporate spending

    3. P/e ratings of companies will likely fall closer to recession level P/E levels from the highly overvalued p/e levels which persisted for the QE & low inflation years, which is now well & truly over. (E.g. to a CAPE level of say~16-18 , from the current inflated CAPE levels of ~27),28.94%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago.

    We are now in a Quantitive Contraction, high inflation & higher interest rate environment. This started a year ago. Share prices need to fully reflect this. They don't yet imho. Until they do, they will continue to fall.....

    So buckle up, there's a bit more to this bear yet imho.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,004 ✭✭✭littlevillage

    Great to see the thread soo lively again 👍

    Thanks for the nudge on Edesa, 'Chinese Whospers', I think they were tipped way back in a previous years thread. I know I bought some back then, but the Share price stagnated and tanked. I bailed out. The SP recovered very strongly.... but I never bothered with them again.

    I think people on here who are considering investing need to be aware that small pharma/med tech companies are pretty risky. Even if they hit pay dirt with a new drug or product, they usually haven't got the money or know how to effectively mass produce and market the product. The only way you make money is if they get bought out at a large premium by a bigger fish (before they have to fold-up or horriblly dilute, due to cash burn)

    I probably won't bother investing as I reckon we are too late to this particular party.

    Now, if anyone is interested I am holding two small Pharma company stocks.

    Amyrt Pharma (Nasdaq)

    Poolbeg Pharma (AIM London)

    Both have promising new drug pipelines, but are unlikely to have the where-with-all to bring anything to market, but could well be take-over targets. They are both pretty well capitalized and there's a strong Irish connection to both, (hence how they came up on my radar). As always DYOR. Happy Christmas.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,770 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe

    Inflation was brought about by money printing during Covid. This printing has stopped but the inflation still lingers on. There's a huge physiological effect to Inflation that takes time to eliminate. You might be surprised how quick it returns to normal levels.

    (BTW - I do understand the concept of present value of the sum of futures cash flows.)

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,301 ✭✭✭daithi7

    Interesting talk by Jeremy Grantham (Co-founder of GMO)

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,004 ✭✭✭littlevillage

    Might be time for Jeremy to come up with a new video, that one has been circulating in various forms since this time last year... (he was proven right as it happens), buts its nothing but clickbait now.

    He said "Nasdaq needs to fall by 50%"... its fallen by 40% now.

    What people are really interested in now, is will the Fed have to continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation or have they done enough ?

    Post edited by littlevillage on

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,301 ✭✭✭daithi7

    Your Money

    Don’t fight the Fed

    The Federal Reserve expects interest rates to exceed 5% at the end of 2023, and investors who don’t believe this risk a lot of pain

  • Registered Users Posts: 45,448 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger

    Tesla $117 pre market

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,787 ✭✭✭antimatterx

  • Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭jams100

    I'd also add that the Fed thought inflation was transitory for months and months when it *clearly* wasn't.

    My point being that the Fed can change their mind on a dime. (Not saying rates are going back to zero), but a lot of damage has already been done, just read a few earning reports and you'll see this, that's not to says stocks won't go lower but some have already likely bottomed.

    Anyway, you know your close(r) to the end when analysts are downgrading most stocks / S&P targets.

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,933 ✭✭✭✭Thargor

    No sign of a Santa Rally this year anyway.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,770 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe

    Christ Tesla at $109 now. It was $309 just 3 months ago. Anyone care to estimate what it's actually worth?

    It's sales per share was $21.72 at the end of last quarter (Sept 22). In Sept '18 this figure was $4.49. So a 5x in 5 years.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135

    More to go I'm afraid, I think 2023 could be a painful miserable year not much unlike 2001 when the dot com bubble burst, except this time it may well be the overpriced S&P 500 bubble bursting

  • Registered Users Posts: 45,448 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger

    It may be that tomorrow!

    It's now $106 in after hours trading.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx

    It’s extremely difficult to say as the stock always traded on wild exuberance, perhaps it’s now shifting to conventional valuation metrics?, if so , could still be another 50% to go, if it goes through $100, $70 is next

  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Aidan Harney

    Got an email from degiro today that informed me of the sale of all my shares of Brookfield Renewable Partners LP...

    Complete news to me!

    Anyone either in a similar situation, or better still, have a clue what might be going on!!

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,049 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui

    Tesla is essentially worth nothing, and that's not me being my usual Tesla scathing self, that is according to none other than Elon himself:

    Now You can of course think to yourself that they will solve FSD, but so far I have been right for the last 5 years in believing they wont and never will.

    I have seen data from that same person that suggests the FSD crash rate is getting worse, perticularly when compared to other players. So personally I wouldn't touch Tesla with two barge poles tied together.

    Musk suffers from delusional over estimation of his own skill set and intelligence with a matching under-estimation of everyone else's. It's his aspie blindspot. He's demonstrated this once again with Twitter.

    Tesla being a profitable company was originally predicated on the cars being made entirely by robots with a relatively minuscule wage bill, because robots are smart and people are dumb and can easily be replaced. Didn't happen, so the anticipated chief driver of profit proved a mirage.

    Then Elon changed the story to FSD robo taxi's. Again he aimed for cheap thinking expensive LIDARS would be unnecessary and that he could strong arm software engineers into replicating the human ability to identify and categorise and know about everything they see instantly, and that cheap and woeful 1080p cameras would be sufficient. This hasn't happened and I don't believe it's possible because It's my belief that the full range of driving tasks a human deals with requires general intelligence, something which might well require self-awareness, and that may not be something we will ever manage.

    So hede Elon's own words and beware.

  • Registered Users Posts: 114 ✭✭AnF Chuckie egg

    For the Value investor Tesla is a buy at anything under $120. Tesla have several distinct advantages over the other Car makers. They have zero advertising costs, their manufacturing processes take several hundred (yes hundred) steps less due to their casting technology. Basically they have figured out how to cast the chassis and shell of their cars, no other manufacturer has cracked this one. They own large amounts of intellectual property wrt charging and battery tech that other manufacturers must pay them for.

    Problem many folks have with Tesla is they missed the boat and are searching for the next tesla amongst those other rubbish EV companies. Sorry Con padres but the boat has sailed, you are now looking at a different investment in Tesla.

    Musk will turn twitter into a cash cow, companies like that need a strong leader (madman or not) he is that. His first week at twitter he asked staff the simple question "what have you achieved this week". That hits right to the bone of his ethic, and it is why he gave half the staff the road. I bet Meta would be a much leaner company too if they shed half f there 87,000 workforce!!

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,770 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe

    For the record I don't own any Tesla stock. How did you come up with the value of 120?

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭Patsy167

    I think many will look back on the current period as a missed opportunity to get into quality stocks at low prices - Google, Amazon, Apple are all well priced for lots of upside.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,787 ✭✭✭antimatterx

    I think end of Q1 2023 will be a good time to buy. No analysis, just a gut feeling that there is some more pain to come.