What's gonna be the GME or AMC of the year? Money to be made still.
More to go I'm afraid, I think 2023 could be a painful miserable year not much unlike 2001 when the dot com bubble burst, except this time it may well be the overpriced S&P 500 bubble bursting
Christ Tesla at $109 now. It was $309 just 3 months ago. Anyone care to estimate what it's actually worth?
It's sales per share was $21.72 at the end of last quarter (Sept 22). In Sept '18 this figure was $4.49. So a 5x in 5 years.
No sign of a Santa Rally this year anyway.
I'd also add that the Fed thought inflation was transitory for months and months when it *clearly* wasn't.
My point being that the Fed can change their mind on a dime. (Not saying rates are going back to zero), but a lot of damage has already been done, just read a few earning reports and you'll see this, that's not to says stocks won't go lower but some have already likely bottomed.
Anyway, you know your close(r) to the end when analysts are downgrading most stocks / S&P targets.
Grim. Hopefully we get <$100
Tesla $117 pre market
Your Money
Don’t fight the Fed
https://www.irishtimes.com/your-money/2022/12/20/dont-fight-the-fed/
Might be time for Jeremy to come up with a new video, that one has been circulating in various forms since this time last year... (he was proven right as it happens), buts its nothing but clickbait now.
He said "Nasdaq needs to fall by 50%"... its fallen by 40% now.
What people are really interested in now, is will the Fed have to continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation or have they done enough ?
Interesting talk by Jeremy Grantham (Co-founder of GMO)
Inflation was brought about by money printing during Covid. This printing has stopped but the inflation still lingers on. There's a huge physiological effect to Inflation that takes time to eliminate. You might be surprised how quick it returns to normal levels.
(BTW - I do understand the concept of present value of the sum of futures cash flows.)
Great to see the thread soo lively again 👍
Thanks for the nudge on Edesa, 'Chinese Whospers', I think they were tipped way back in a previous years thread. I know I bought some back then, but the Share price stagnated and tanked. I bailed out. The SP recovered very strongly.... but I never bothered with them again.
I think people on here who are considering investing need to be aware that small pharma/med tech companies are pretty risky. Even if they hit pay dirt with a new drug or product, they usually haven't got the money or know how to effectively mass produce and market the product. The only way you make money is if they get bought out at a large premium by a bigger fish (before they have to fold-up or horriblly dilute, due to cash burn)
I probably won't bother investing as I reckon we are too late to this particular party.
Now, if anyone is interested I am holding two small Pharma company stocks.
Amyrt Pharma (Nasdaq)
Poolbeg Pharma (AIM London)
Both have promising new drug pipelines, but are unlikely to have the where-with-all to bring anything to market, but could well be take-over targets. They are both pretty well capitalized and there's a strong Irish connection to both, (hence how they came up on my radar). As always DYOR. Happy Christmas.
You do realise Stocks are only worth what their future earnings discounted to net present value (NPV) are worth? don't you?!
So if a stock such as Amazon was once priced at $174, and is now priced at $87, this means nothing. Absolutely nothing!!
Amazon (& every other company) is only worth, what it's future earnings will be discounted to, in today's NPV.
That discount rate is directly proportional to the interest rate, and since interest rates are going to go up further from now (from 4.25 % to 5.25% at least according to the Fed in the next 6 months, so by an increase of ~20-25% relatively), this implies the NPV of all companies future earnings (estimates) will fall by a proportional amount.....
Also, when interest rates go up in a time of high inflation, like we have now, so does the cost of servicing debts, and this affects people's, companies' & countries' spending, & spending power.
So, we can fairly reliably predict:
1. future earnings NPV will fall by another ~20% from current levels in the next 6 months
2. Actual earnings will also fall due to lower consumer & corporate spending
3. P/e ratings of companies will likely fall closer to recession level P/E levels from the highly overvalued p/e levels which persisted for the QE & low inflation years, which is now well & truly over. (E.g. to a CAPE level of say~16-18 , from the current inflated CAPE levels of ~27)
https://ycharts.com/indicators/cyclically_adjusted_pe_ratio#:~:text=S%26P%20500%20Shiller%20CAPE%20Ratio%20is%20at%20a%20current%20level,28.94%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago.
We are now in a Quantitive Contraction, high inflation & higher interest rate environment. This started a year ago. Share prices need to fully reflect this. They don't yet imho. Until they do, they will continue to fall.....
So buckle up, there's a bit more to this bear yet imho.
You can ask DEGIRO to relist… they might now after going back over $1 or open an interactive brokers account. Might take a week or so…
But, ask DEGIRO first I’d say.
https://trader.degiro.nl/trader/#/products/16073621/overviewIt hasn't been removed from Degiro, just unindexed from their search.
Typing 16073621 into the appropriate place in the address bar of another product will also get you there if you'd prefer to not follow a link.
Thanks, so how do you buy it?
Spiked to $12 in Sep 2021. This has been heavily shorted since, including through dark pools. Not once has the company issued bad news. In September this year the company announced it has a drug with a 84% reduction in deaths for severe Covid/ARDS… and on the same day the share price tanked. It’s a nano company that’s easily manipulated, but has the real deal, imo. They issued a CSR (you’ll need to do some research as to what that is) to the FDA 3 months ago and the FDA has granted them Fast Track approval last week… despite being a penny stock (if EB05 was owned by a large pharma company this drug would already have received its marketing licence, imo).
But, you tell me why you think this company should be a penny stock?
Someone mentioned above that 2022 was a dreadful year… I’m giving you/them a company that you/they should do research on… might make 2023 a hell of a lot better. But, you must do your own research.
It did but was delisted when it dropped below $1. You could ask them to re-list now it’s over $2.
74% of companies in ‘22 that got fast track approval by the FDA got their drug approved.
Current market valuation mid $30m. Going to be valued in $billions, in my opinion… do your own research etc. etc.
They're penny stocks
How come EDSA or Edesa Bio doesn't show up as a stock in De Giro?
Care to expand?
Because Bass Reeves announcing he’s not buying doesn’t add up to a hill of beans.
I am not buying it
Disney is now cheaper than it was 5 years ago.... with Bob Iger back in charge we simply have to be approaching some kind of a bottom. But the SP keeps falling.... soo what do I know? anyway for now, I'm hanging on grimly to the couple of shares I have. (I'm underwater by about 30%)
EDSA had been up approx 40 percent since the above post, back to just 20 per cent up but on another run again. Should be in $3s if not $4s by year end.
Well, I'm here to rescue your year 😅 I think EDESA Biotech has the chance to be the best buy of 2022 or 2023. They have been given fast track designation by the FDA for a Covid therapy drug that has shown a 84 per cent reduction in mortality at 28 days for severe Covid cases. I've listed some of the good things happening with this company in the near term. Currently trading at a ridiculous price as infested with Dark Pool shorts which eventually have to cover. THIS IS GOING TO BE HUGE (imho, do your own research!)
Current marketcap @ $1.87 = 36M
O/S shares - 19.3M
Current cash on hand - approx ~$8.5m - have said in their yearly 10k, have 12 months worth of cash.
Long-term debt commitments - 0
Pipeline:
EB05 - COVID ARDS - PHASE 3
FDA Fast Track with market in Billions and fundng supported by Government of Canada
EB01 - ALLERGIC CONTACT DERMITITIS - PHASE 2B
Billion dollar market and trial results upcoming in weeks
Upcoming catalysts in next 3-6 months:
- Phase 3 FDA Approval EB05 trial
- North American/Global partnership for EB05
- EB01 Phase 2b trial data
- Health Canada Priority Review submission
- Government of Canada funding for Phase 3 trial
- Canadian Government purchase of doses upon approval of Priority designation
- EB05 enrollment update with interim analysis submission
- FDA EUA submission request
I've been with this company over 2.5 years and it's now looking stupid good in my opinion. www.edesabiotech.com read the last number of PRs and 10k SEC filing. It'll be the best thing you've done today. The bad news - Up over 100 per cent already this week.
Does anybody have any opinions on Disney?
Price will have to go lower when their earnings drop next year so.
The current average PE ratio of the S&P 500 is 20.4 (Dec 2022). In Dec 2021 it had a peak of 38.2. It tends to hover around the 20ish mark.
You see the historic values here. I don't know if this chart accounts for inflation. (Post edit - inflation is irrelevant with this ratio.)
S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends
question is whether prices now are more realistic than the 12 month highs? I think a lot of stocks prices were overblown during covid. Coming down a bit now back towards precovid levels.
The great thing about my 40k portfolio being down 25% is that a 1% day drop is only 300 euro and not 400! 😋
Most of my portfolio is BRK.B
It'll perform basically the same as S&P500. Just back test it over any 5/10 year period.
It's very diversified. If BRK.B doesn't track the market pretty well, something is gone very badly.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w1.vanillicon.com/v2/11f397efbb618f280f346771bb290fe0.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eedacf599b4135dfd56d6fdbddcbd867.svg)
