FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

mcburns07 · 16-12-2022 08:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120004980#Comment_120004980

Great 😔 more rain for us in the South

Gonzo · 16-12-2022 08:50PM

I think it's safe to say now the Christmas cold spell is more or less a bust except maybe for a glancing blow with cold which doesn't fully get to Ireland now on most of the models, unless we have a major cross model flip over the next 2 days.

PokeHerKing · 16-12-2022 08:56PM

Chin up Gonzo, still 9 days out and although I'd probably agree with you on the overall trend, its not like there's much clarity.

Still a window where it could change. I'll thrown in the towel fully Monday.

Cork2021 · 16-12-2022 09:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120005021#Comment_120005021

Which could definitely happen the way they’ve been operating lately

WolfeEire · 16-12-2022 09:56PM

Looking at the mean temps in the 12z output compared to the relevant model's previous run, with a specific reference in changes to the Christmas period. All in all, the forecast for the two days leading up to Christmas and into St Stephen's Day is far from certain with models trending colder.

The GEM is colder

The UKMO Mogreps is colder

The ECM is pretty much unchanged but the Op run was much milder than the rest of the members

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 12:25AM

Such a waste of a lovely block.

snowgal · 17-12-2022 01:18AM

Still think we’re in the mix for a cold surprise for Christmas, a while to go yet….

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 01:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120006126#Comment_120006126

The cold air is primed to flood south at Christmas but that Euro high is looking solid. It needs to regress southeast. I think we had a similar scenario a week out from last Christmas. That time it was a high extending from the Azores that held off a very cold airmass just north of Ireland.

.Donegal. · 17-12-2022 11:31AM

0z below gave some snow to ulster. Latest has it more widespread across the country and falling on the big day itself. That’s 3 out the last 4 gfs going for a white Christmas in some part of the country.

06z below

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 01:01PM

There remains a reasonable possibility that we will have cold weather in place for Christmas. In fact, there is more potential than what we are used to in the run up to the big day.

We are heading into a more reliable timeframe for models to start getting to grips with Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The placement of the Euro high is a key factor. Too far north towards Ireland and the cold, which seems primed to flood south, will be largely held back away from northern counties. How the high responds to tomorrow's low pressure system and into Monday will be key. I think we will be much better placed following the 12z runs on Monday to make a more informed call.

Ecm and Ukmo ensembles show the wide spread for Christmas

The 06z GEFS 850 hpa mean is below

Gonzo · 17-12-2022 01:47PM

at a quick glance I think the GFS 6z ensembles have had a small overall shift towards cold between Christmas Day and New Years Eve. A very complicated pattern overall tho with sub tropical air pushing towards us from tonight but at the same time proper artic air is trying to sink down south from Greenland/Artic regions while a big area of high pressure is also setting up over southern Europe. Everything could look very different after Monday/Tuesday.

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 04:01PM

I see US forecasters downgrading the extent of next week's cold spell in the USA the plunge into the southern states looks like not happening now. That cold spell had looked nailed on fairly nailed on up to yesterday. A ridge of high pressure over the western states looks like shunting much of the cold away and keeping it to the Great Lakes region. Will see what impact this change may have here as deep cold across the USA can invigorate the Jetstream.

squarecircles · 17-12-2022 04:51PM

Im dreaming...

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 05:17PM

UKMO sinks the euro high to Africa and allows cold air to feed south from 23rd

Cork2021 · 17-12-2022 05:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120007702#Comment_120007702

Get up them steps!!!

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 05:38PM

An almighty battleground rages in the GEM from Christmas Eve through to the end of the run. The models have lost the run of themselves.

nacho libre · 17-12-2022 05:57PM

The UK Met Office take seems to be of north to South divide in terms of cold from the 22nd to the New Year. Their own model seems a bit more generous. It's encouraging to see a general theme on the models of a fight between the cold air to the north and milder tropical air further south. The cold plunge in the US could be a friend if we get a slow moving north easter storm that could cause Warm Air Advection into Greenland. It could of course also act as a spoiler if secondary lows spin off and head our way. it's fantastic we are in with a shout of a white Christmas for once.

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 06:29PM

Slight move towards cold at Christmas from GFS with slightly more favourable mean heights and temps. Some very cold members in there. As we speak, the Ecm is hatching a plan to derail any chatter of a White Christmas in its output at six. Irrespective of any upgrades for cold potential, the caveat of seeing what this low pressure system does tomorrow and on Monday remains. The 12z runs on Monday will tell a lot about what Christmas will bring.

Gonzo · 17-12-2022 06:53PM

The GFS 12z is incredibly mild with several plume like pushes over us through Christmas week and on into New Years. It is a complete warm outlier at times on it's own and when you look at the operational run on the ensemble graph you can see that it look rather crazy and not very believeable.

I feel like i'm getting to the stage where the GFS is just not a reliable model anymore. This new GFS is the absolute pits. A fair chance we could get a cold snap between Christmas Day and the 28th of December, a short lived cold snap that is very much on a knifes edge for us between properly cold and balmy warmth over a relatively short distance. This high pressure over central and southern Europe is stopping the cold air from spilling south and currently it is really only Scotland that stands a decent chance of something properly cold. I hope this focus shifts further south and puts us in the firing line for several days of proper cold but we will have to wait a few more days to see if this is even possible.

Let's hope by Monday evening we get that low pressure out of the way and things may start to become clearer because right now everything past Monday is total FI.

Danno · 17-12-2022 07:15PM

The GEM today looks quite interesting for the Christmas period. I think alot of people would take a cool week next week and then a reload of cold and wintry conditions over the weekend. ECM looks set to bring battleground snow, but the orientation suits Ireland with the lows generally to the east or southeast dragging in colder air on their western flanks.

Cluedo Monopoly · 17-12-2022 07:31PM

Which model got the last 10 days of cold right?

.Donegal. · 17-12-2022 07:35PM

Yesterday the gfs had snow for some on the 23rd. It’s back again on this run. 4 out of the last 5 runs have had snow fallen or lying for Christmas in some parts of Ireland.

Mostly Connacht gets the snow on the 23rd. A bit in ulster too.

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 07:45PM

The UK Met Office MOGREPS showing strong agreement amongst members for a cold Christmas. Plenty of snow potential showing with a secondary low running into the cold air over Ireland.

The ECM has the building blocks in place but that Euro high is stubbornly not budging. The cold just can't get down by Christmas Eve/Day.

For what it's worth, the JMA gets the cold in during Christmas Day

A mix bag overall in this eve's models. We are no closer to being able to call the Christmas weather.

Oneiric 3 · 17-12-2022 07:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120008135#Comment_120008135

Charts are beginning to look a lot like those in early 2021. Cold down as far as Scotland and staying there while Ireland & the rest of UK on the edge.

Edit: Or that could have been early 2020, I can't remember exactly but it was around that time.

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 07:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120008150#Comment_120008150

Yes. Very similar. I said same earlier but I thought I was imagining it 😵‍💫 Wasn't sure was it last year or year before

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120006131/#Comment_120006131

Gonzo · 17-12-2022 08:11PM

Similar to end of December 2020/January 2021. Last winter there was no winter. This time last year we were starting to chase what looked like a very cold and promising Christmas. The FI 120+ thread was gaining multiple pages of posts in this rather exciting run up and then it suddenly burst into a massive bust around the 22nd of December and after that it was tumbleweeds in this thread for the rest of winter 2021/2022. Hopefully from now to end of February this thread will hold alot more excitement with cold and snowy opportunities compared to last winter which was a trainwreck from the 1st of December.

nacho libre · 17-12-2022 09:08PM

I think the real spoiler for us on the latest ECM is the weak heights in Greenland just not being far enough east. If we had a proper robust high over Greenland itself then those heights over Europe would probably be forced to pack up and leave town. I am still banking on that ECM 46 from a while ago calling for the euro heights to disappear towards January. If it happens we just might be lucky enough to tap into that very cold air further north.

Until they do it will more than likely just be brief cold spells for us. Still, if one of these delivers a White Christmas, I think many of us would be happy with that!

glightning · 17-12-2022 10:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120007990#Comment_120007990

While we could say the GFS has become pants, perhaps it's the current synoptics that are giving the models the trouble? It's possible that previous GFS versions would have equally come up with crazy scenarios. We are far from the usual winter setup.

WolfeEire · 17-12-2022 10:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973407#Comment_119973407

Someone responded to this point at the time ridiculing our analysis of long range/FI charts. At the time, we were looking to ten days ahead to Sunday 18th (tomorrow). A lot can be drawn from long range charts and other signals. All the signs were that milder weather would break through on the 18th.

The signals for next weekend (7 days out) are nowhere near is clear and we are in a situation where it could go either way. Sometimes the signals are strong and sometimes they are very mixed.

This thread is set up for discussion purposes. Most of us, me included, are far from experts but are interested in discussing the weather. Let us at it 😉

Anyway on to the GFS, which is rolling out now.

Gonzo · 18-12-2022 12:17AM

The GFS pub run is looking remarkably similar to how everything turned out between now and New Years Day last winter. Cold that doesn't quite reach us for Christmas, mostly very mild days, a few cooler but still mild days and then a blowtorch as we head into New Years Eve and New Years Day.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST