FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

It looks like the cold GFS op run for Xmas day has some support in the ensembles. Will see what tomorrow's rollercoaster brings

Er, em, model concensus on a Christmas day freeze up this morning, no? Certainly gfs and gem have us in the freezer and ecm is trending that way to my eyes....

Hmm. Not sure. Feel that the chances of a White Christmas are slipping away. GFS Op was one of the coldest members in the ENS and the mean 850mb temp was around -3c. Best you could hope for on that run if the op actually came off is a frosty morning which would be better than nothing. As we've seen in the recent cold spell, the warm seas are heavily affecting the ability for showers to be of snow. The only showers I saw here inland in NI over the past two weeks were of light rain surprisingly when 850 temps were below -7c. The mountains didn't even get snow cover. Heavier precip (which we didn't get) would probably have helped though.

ECM doesn't look that great to me. Only Scotland gets any decent cold, and the whole pattern is moving east, so I only expect a cooler St.Stephen's Day from that with it quickly becoming milder again. Xmas day looks coolish and wet.

GEM is the best of the bunch this morning, giving us a cool or cold Xmas day but hard to say what the snow chances are given the wind direction and also the warm seas issue. I personally don't rate the model much either.

Disappointing on one hand, but in a busy travel week, especially after three years of confinement at Christmas, people *should* be able to get where they need to go without weather issues. Bring on January.

Don't think we can say that with certainty yet but its trending that way. Either way though, in terms of snow, as the last 10 days have shown, embedded cold may be overrated! This is the chart from Xmas 2004 that gave many of us a White Christmas. Something like this is still possible....

The uncertainty is unbelievable though, the amount of flip flopping the last fortnight has been nuts!

you’d see less flip flops at a beach in Spain in July!

The GEM has been doing well of late, that's not to say it is right time. I suppose the warm sea issue might have been overcome if we had greater instability and lower thickness. It may as you indicate be just cold and wet over Christmas, but at least we are in with some chance of wintry conditions during Christmas for once.

There is one big flip left in the models. Maybe this evening or tomorrow morn. I think they are overplaying mobility of the Atlantic when we are far away from notable negative NAO territory. I do think Sunday's system, until fully resolved in terms of its interaction with the euro and greenland highs, will dictate what happens next week and particularly at Christmas.

I think if we get a cold spell in Jan it would be during the first half of the month. Haven't had a proper cold spell second half of Jan in yrs. If its to be a front loaded winter ,hopefully we still have some time on our side regarding first half of Jan.

Looking at the 12z output, all I can say is that Euro high is an absolute killer for any push of cold from the north from Dec 23 through Christmas. Knocking on the door but not being allowed in. The Irish snow shield is firmly up.

Hopefully the GEM and UKMO are on the right track, Euro high scuppers the uppers but at least the blocking is there.

GFS loses the blocking signal completely and has the Atlantic raging.

The 12Z GFS mean for Christmas Day is out and it is a lot colder than the 06z mean.

Met Éireann long range

MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 16 DECEMBER 2022

Week 1 (Monday 19 December to Sunday 25 December)

After largely dry and settled conditions recently, Ireland’s weather will be turning much more changeable for Week 1. Rainfall will increase marginally above average, with the wettest conditions likely in the south of the country. Temperatures will remain somewhat below average

Week 2 (Monday 26 December to Sunday 01 January)

Week 2 is likely to be quite typical for late December, although temperatures are likely to remain below average across the country. Precipitation will be fairly typical overall, possibly turning a bit drier in the north and west and a bit wetter in the south and east.

Week 3 (Monday 02 January to Sunday 08 January)

Uncertainty increases for Week 3. Current indications are that it will turn relatively settled with pressure increasing marginally above average. Precipitation and temperatures are each forecast to be close to typical levels for early January

Week 4 (Monday 09 January to Sunday 15 January)

Considerable uncertainty remains for Week 4. Early indications are that conditions will be fairly typical for the time of year with approximately average temperatures and precipitation.