Softening house market?

external factors such as rates, qe and now qt have also been playing a part in this game, with rates rising and with central banks committing to qt, the most likely outcome will be a fairly abrupt deflation of asset markets, including property, again, the over simplification of our property markets to basic metrics such as supply and demand really need to be ditched, since we ve moved into the financialized world of property....

....so we should further endanger effected property owners and tenants, just because some hold prejudicial views!

...so again, you want to further expose everyone, sounds like a great plan!

...cause its clearly obvious, the whole process of financializing our property markets has collapsed, and we dont know what to do about it!

Will it work?

Will it bring down rent? Or just put hundreds into emergency accommodation when they can't pay their rent.

Yet another idiotic comment from someone who can't see beyond their own nose.

They have started QT by not rolling over all the bonds when it matures…they just haven’t sold bonds like fed is doing.

the derivatives piece is a red hearing as it’s all about a usd shortage and the fact that not enough usd in circulation to settle all the fx trades in existence and the risk that exchange rate goes through the roof as a result and institutions will have to pay to meet obligations. Fed won’t allow that to happen and will open swap lines with central banks to provide liquidity.

More demand from the state if this cap on Shared Equity scheme prices is increased

“Property price ceilings under First Home(Shared Equity) Scheme likely to be increased in a number of counties”

There is huge demand, but much of it is latent because prices are too high.

That demand will only become active when prices have dropped - a lot.

Two things have happened recently - an increase in mortgage interest rates, and concurrently, a softening of conditions.

The problem here is that if you cannot afford a mortgage now - how will you be affected by increased interest rates? On the other hand although the banks might be allowed to give out bigger mortgages to more people - will they relax their internal controls? I'd guess not, as they are apparently all still in a precarious position.

But of course it won't happen, because all those tenants, or many of them, are voters too and the current lot in government are already in an uncomfortable place according to the polls. They can't afford to alienate the property owners either, as most landlords vote for FG or FF as it is.

SF (if they ever get into power) will be left with a big hot potato filled with brown stuff. And I doubt if they will know what to do with it either - unless they can find the dosh to carry out a massive programme of social house building.

Rents would come down if the HAP which underpins rental levels is reduced (as long as it in in conjunction with other measures like no eviction which is in place, and proper immigration control and no housing benefit without employment).

Alternatively, let's just increase HAP by 20% to ensure landlords are protected as interest rates rise.

If HAP was reduced by 20% the government would have to enforce an eviction ban on HAP renters.

I say that rents wouldn't decrease because the issue is not solely pricing, it's also supply. Demand is too strong for prices to drop.

Actually its always the cheaper houses that get the highest drops, percentage wise.

And these will be the ones the crash massively next year.

The higher the prices, the less percent drop you will see. E.g. houses over 1 million might not see massive movement. But a house of 300k that got bid up to 400k can easily drop 30 - 50 percent. I have seen it all before.