Softening house market?

assets markets globally are starting to deflate, largely due to rising rates and other polices such as qt etc, this will more than likely lead to deflation in our property markets, and with major markets such as it looking iffy, this will also more than likely lead to price deflation. our property markets are far more complex and exposed than over simplified beliefs such as supply and demand, some believing global property markets could fall by up to 30%, but i seriously cant see that happening here, maybe 10% at most, but who knows....

unfortunately this is more than likely very true, we re in deep sh1t, and the only solution is wide scale state interventions, but that isnt going to happen any time soon....

I'm expecting prices to drop back about 10 percent over next couple of years...with tightening economies and after unsustainable growth during covid, but no one knows.

I'm sure Roderick had the same thought on hearing the news today!

That's probably reasonable.

At the end of the day, you need to live somewhere. People can't live with their parents forever. We have near full employment in the country and a booming high-wage tech sector. Interest rates are still low despite recent increases, and they don't look to rise much more at least in the next few years.

There is a generation of people demanding housing, and a second generation coming up quickly behind them, plus net immigration. This situation will continue unless there is a societal shift in attitudes to housing, which I don't see happening. Most of us grew up in semi-d and detached houses with gardens and open space. Irish people don't like apartments and especially don't like the sh*te apartments that will be thrown up to "fix" a housing crisis.

I think there are a lot of people who have gotten used to ultra low rates and their benchmark for how high rates can go before they are "too high" is way off by actual historical standards.

I agree completely. Property prices will correct massively in real terms. The timeframe is the hard bit, and the longer the timeframe, the bigger impact inflation will have.

Id say there’s little to no chance prices are lower in nominal terms terms in 2040 than they are today.

With wage inflation running at 5%, rental yields 5% above mortgage rates AND mortgage rates rising.

You need a 10-15% drop in house prices in real terms (5-10% in nominal terms) every year to just stand still as a renter. You need bigger drops than that to be making any ‘gains’. Seems like other markets like Canada, Australia, Sweden will correct than those figures that but difficult to say here.

Despite the clear market softening, the current dynamics make it difficult to justify renting long term as a financial strategy in Ireland, sadly.

You are missing the point. The debt that exists in the economy cant sustain rates that high....and this time it aint the property market over leveraged.

Companies were taking on debt because it was free and stock prices were driven up to silly levels. Inflation is a direct result of cheap money.

Everything is going to be sucked out of the economy and property prices will go down along with everything else. Its different from last crash when property was cause and therefore people have a false sense of security when it comes to property prices this time.

The way to drop property prices is, Government decides to reduce HAP rent supplements.

By 20% ought to do it.

Its such a big part of the rental market, rents would drop.

The REITs will pullback, maybe sell in blocks.

Sure it would screw a lot of people renting, but overall it would benefit society.

Blah blah blah meh