FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Am I to be worried about potential snow next weekend, thus scuppering an annual bus tour?

That's interesting about 2010, i did not realise the blocking waned that quickly. You are right that no matter how favourable the Northern Hemisphere profile might look for a lengthy cold spell, the fact that 1947 and 1963 stick out in memory proves such sustained cold is the exception rather than the norm. Background signals don't guarantee us anything and can change, my point was that while things like the mjo is in a phase that is conducive for blocking it increases our odds somewhat of a favourable outcome for those of us who want snow, not that we will get three months of snow without interruption. Anyway back to the GFS, given the unusual scenarios it has been throwing out of late, it's hard to believe the latest one has all this finally nailed. A low from Greenland helping to prolong the cold is very hard to believe. Maybe if other models start to show it, but otherwise i would doubt it.

A few wintry showers next week some of sleet and snow.

Milder over the weekend with heavy rain and strong winds as temperatures head up over 10c again.

That's all.

4 days of winter then back to muck

The models are just trying to resolve and make sense of a relatively unusual set up. Whatever peoples opinions are on the GFS, let us not forget that it was this model that picked up on that incredible heat spike back in July long before any other model.

Stolen from netweather but

ECM op is once again a huge outlier. This seems to be happening a lot lately

If you are quoting that particular person could you at least give a bit of context instead of posting random screenshots

GFS 18Z is looking good! The low isn't messing up things and could actually be helping things. The cold lobe over us remains connected to the main vortex also, which I believe allows it to remain stronger. It's chosen the prolonging cold route. Will be interesting to see the GEFS later on

In further frames it starts to do weird things with the low, linking up with a low pressure at Greenland. GFS really is handling these systems very strangely

Don't quote that absolute eejit and expect not to be disappointed.

Post a chart showing strong winds heavy rain and 10c temps for next weekend.

So you can't post a chart showing heavy rain strong winds and 10 degrees for next weekend. Grand.

I want a northerly wind not Easterly