FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

The runs over the past few days were not exciting but alot has changed so quickly. A few days ago it looked like a 3 to 4 day cold spell at most and now we are looking at the possibility of a 3 week cold spell and going well into the freezer at times too. Won't be much snow over the next 5 days away from inland Donegal and parts of Mayo but after that anything is possible. Looking forward to tomorrows charts but will they offer anything remotely as cold and prolonged as this GFS pub run.

WolfeEire

Finishing off with a Scandinavia-Greenland pattern 🥶

Lets see what the full 384hr ensembles suite shows on an hour or so.

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961773#Comment_119961773

Oh I'm very superstitious JS and wouldn't be caught dead putting the mockers on things by rolling out the big superlatives anymore. Had enough of calling runs that never transpired as a teen 'epic' and all that jazz for a lifetime.

Not too bad/not too shabby -> pretty good to me and I'll leave it at that 😀. Catching up on the rest of the run now and obviously it becomes what would be historic in terms of duration, with further reloads at the end on the way.

It's a sizably different run from early, with big changes early on. Until it becomes a cross model trend, I won't do much more than post a few GIFs to keep the thread going with muted commentary, I'll leave the other bits to others who do it better 😉.

Overall after today we seem to be in a promising position in terms of extending the cold. I reckon we still have a bit of chopping and changing to do re: the Azores low that could change things yet down the line. Time for the 0z...

cheezums

what's the significance of a scandinavian high?

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962032#Comment_119962032

It drags an easterly wind towards us.

WolfeEire

The GFS operational run at 18z was not very well supported beyond the 16th Dec as you can see in the ensembles for Dublin. But it is very well supported up to then (10-11 days time) i.e. strong support for cold spell to last through mid month. We may or may not see the 0Z run show an incursion of a milder Atlantic airmass or a diluted Polar Maritime influence from beyond the 16-17th. This is way out in the run though so we will probably see a lot of fluctuations in output for the rest of the week re: the second half of next week period.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961941#Comment_119961941

Im just waiting for the fly in the ointment.

I dont know what it going to be yet mind you but something seems to always scupper those beautiful charts.

Is this finally the year.. a few hours time could be sobering or exuberant. Great ride. 👍

BLIZZARD7

GFS a little messy and different on the 00z but still cold. UKMO has us in a cold easterly and looks locked into a prolonged and severe spell. ECM again different but shows a major Emma-esque snow storm days 8/9 and again what looks like a locked in severe cold spell at that point. It ends with a stunning day 10 chart that looks primed for repeated reloads of cold.

All showing different routes but all look increasingly cold and very snowy.

I’ll let others go into detail on Thursday/Friday potential but Dublin region looks to be potentially in the firing line.

Lots to be figured out but wow, this is looking… 🥶❄️

KingdomRushed

Models have a lot of variety this morning. I would say they are certainly snowiery. It seems a very unique set up to me. I've not seen anything like it modelled in recent years. Different sort of animal to 2010 and 2018. It looks more prolonged but not as extreme. Multiple options which could give widespread snow starting to show in the form of slider lows running along the cold pool. ECM being a notable exams.

nacho libre

Excellent model output again. As was said different routes taken to keep the cold going, but all looks good to me. The odds have increased for a lengthy cold spell rather than a cold snap. It's still asking a lot to keep it going towards Christmas, but I think up to mid month we have a good chance of it staying cold.

ascophyllum

The ECM brings a low very close to the south coast next Tues/Wed, not sure if that makes it too mild or if it means an almighty frontal snow event, but then it sets up an Easterly bringing in some seriously cold air from the East. The overall trend in the models is for the cold to stick around for the next couple of weeks.

bazlers

I think i would rather that first low to head to Africa and beyond to be honest. I would rather a colder more robust scenario first to develope before looking at any battleground options. Just my take. We are still looking very good though.

littlema

Just wondering.............???

Villain

ECM op at the end is the coldest option before people get too excited. From the 13th there is a lot of uncertainty due to the low approaching, if it slides we could open the floodgates for a long cold spell.

Gonzo

This does seem a bit of a stretch for this cold spell to last until the 20th of December or even longer. as mentioned already everything hinges on these lows from the 12th/13th. That will either break us out of the cold immediately or we go even deeper into the freezer and potentially stay there in the run up to Christmas.

SleetAndSnow

06Z is keeping with the theme of locking us into a cold spell however, its a trend it has followed for three runs now.

squarecircles

Both lows slide by to the east on the 06z gfs,before pasting the south coast in snow, and mantaing the frigid cold easterly flow.

KingdomRushed

6z continues with the sliders and cold feed being sustained as a trend on the operational.

But word of warning. The 6z GFS ensembles have many many more than previous runs with lows ripping through the cold and introducing mild air, upper temps well above zero. Hence the mean after 7 days or so is trending upwards with each ensemble set over last few runs. Op still could be right but needs to be taken as less certain now.

SleetAndSnow

Indeed, as KingdomRushed says, a lot of the ensembles are trending milder with GFS and Control at the lower end of the run. 12z will be interesting

Gonzo

Yep definitely a milder trend appearing now from the 13th of December compared to the 18z last night. The control and Op run complete outliers after the 13th. The 12z later today could be fairly sobering but we shall see.

I can see tension over these lows lasting for possibly days as the models will downgrade and upgrade a few more times over the next few days. At the moment we appear locked into moderate cold untill about the 12th or 13th. Next few runs could be critical for 13th to 20th of December.

The GFS 6z still rolling out and looks like a fairly significant swing to a milder trend from the 13th.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119963048#Comment_119963048

It doesn't mean the event is going to end on the 13th. There is just alot of uncertainty and even if the 12z swings further to mild, it may not be the right trend, as this is still a whole week away. We are guaranteed a cold spell lasting a full week at the very least, a few days ago we were counting 3 to 4 days at most.

KingdomRushed

The positives that I would take from the 6z run are that the Control follows the operational, and the ECM also shows slider scenarios counting as further support. However, it will be nervous moments now ahead of the 12z outputs for those finding the prospect of cold and snowy scenes in the next fortnight quite exciting. Even if the milder air encroaches, there are signals that it may not be long-lived either. The overall picture this year just seems so different from other years. The model outputs are not what we usually see before a busted flush. This time we are getting the cold in, and there is on balance more extreme cold in the asian sector of the vortex than the US side. Just feels different from anything in last 10 years or so, so not expecting the same reverting to type.

Few hours break now from the models and catch up again in the evening for me.

JCX BXC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119963048#Comment_119963048

This kind of always happens. There's ups, there's downs.

And to be honest, after reading this mornings posts, they're much more positive than they are negative. Weather charts always disagree, you'll never have full agreement for anything past a few days.

Seemingly people don't realize that even if there is a lengthy cold spell to come, there'll always be a chart that prolongs it further and there'll always be a chart which shows it's demise. You simply follow where there's most agreement.

And the only thing the charts seem to agree on is that it'll be cold.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119963123#Comment_119963123

I think we gave all been here before and see the cold just disintegrate before our eyes and you go WTF...

Once bitten twice shy.. hopfully this will be the occasion where it all falls into place. Ups and downs and round abouts are all part of this of the rollercoaster.

Things will firm up soon enough though.

GFS 6Z ensembles. Despite the uncertainty indicated, 850 temps seem to be trending upwards after the 12th.

TheMilkyPirate

12Z looks to be building that Scandi high out in FI again

Gonzo

GFS 12z as expected turns milder around the 16th of December, however that is 10 days away so cannot be depending upon.

In general this run has reduced the snow risk alot with a mostly dry 10 days to come but plenty of frost and maybe some fog at times.

However this introduction of milder air around the 17th may be only temporary. Perhaps when we see the full run it may indicate another reload at some point.

pauldry

Ya in general even though it will be cold in the coming days the days will be mostly dry and any showers will be light in nature and not always wintry. By December 14th it will be all over and we will be back to milder weather until January. Britain will be colder during the whole period and the Eastern half of Ireland will experience some very hard night frosts.

Gonzo

GEM 12z is having none of the mild and keeps it cold right up to 16th of December. We can't go any further than that on the GEM but it looks as if the cold spell could last several days past the 16th on this particular run and it is a more snowy run than the GFS as well.

snowstorm445

Everything was going to be a downgrade from the craziness of this morning's runs. Things still look decently cold in the long term but not straight into the freezer. Although given how widely divergent the models are from this weekend onwards things could still change substantially.