FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

ninebeanrows · 03-12-2022 10:33AM

Yea 850hPa temperatures arent amazing but thicknesses are forecast to be quite low so that will help a lot

Also the flow is quite slack beyond Wednesday so modification near coast may not be so much of a factor

Very cold nights look likely and some interesting bands of wintry precip in the mix

We wont complain as synoptic could last a while

cheezums · 03-12-2022 11:06AM

Haven't seen this forum this excited for quite awhile. I love the model watching sagas, like a really really slow horse race. Full of ups and downs and bookies giving you all sorts of attractive odds. I'll stick a tenner on Big Polar Bear in the 3.30 anyway lads. Hup!

PokeHerKing · 03-12-2022 11:15AM

Yeah the uppers are why I'm not flagellating myself to every run but this pattern doesn't look to be going anywhere so you'd hope the proper cold flood gates will open mid month if it persists.

KingdomRushed · 03-12-2022 11:27AM

GFS 6z not looking as good for prolonged cold. 3 or 4 days of cold and mild air seeping back in by Sunday week. There is no guarantee of anything remarkable yet in next couple of weeks. Unfortunately the trend is away from something special this time in my opinion.

torres9kop · 03-12-2022 12:28PM

Is it over lads? What’s the percentage chance of snow next week for Dublin?

Niall145 · 03-12-2022 12:33PM

Thursday or Friday morning at the moment looks like a pretty good chance of snow in Dublin/Wicklow, whether this is just in the hills or in the city proper is tbc

SleetAndSnow · 03-12-2022 12:39PM

Latest GFS is very much an outlier in the ensembles, seems to be happening to both ECM and GFS lately

Below 850Hpa charts for Cork, green line is the OP that we just saw.

Gaoth Laidir · 03-12-2022 12:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952167#Comment_119952167

The 00Z ECM ENS (left) shows a better chance of the cold hanging around through next weekend, but less chance of precipitation.

Gonzo · 03-12-2022 12:44PM

We need serious upgrades across all models by Sunday evening if we are to look forward to a memorable cold spell. What i'm seeing right now since yesterdays ECM and the other models this morning is just a tame cold spell not worthy of it's own thread. I'll give this till Sunday/Monday. Maybe we will get something more interesting later in the month.

JanuarySnowstor · 03-12-2022 01:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952199#Comment_119952199

Hard to disagree at the moment. Things have backed off a memorable spell. Of course any snow falling in Ireland is unusual so even a 2/3 day event would be notable.

However I've a sneaky feeling the upgrades are coming, as ever more runs needed

pauldry · 03-12-2022 01:15PM

Ok im not getting tricked this year again. Britain will have plenty of snow Ireland won't. Its too early in the Winter. Goath Laidir says it won't and he definitely knows more than me.

Also Sligo has its own climate e.g today there's just rain in Sligo but when I went to Boyle earlier it was dry and back here its still raining. Looked at radar and rain stationary here.

I'd say honestly it could be cold enough from Wednesday to Sunday for some snow in some spots then very mild from Sunday again as muck comes back.

Then end of December we all start talking about snow again. January is a month I have a gut feeling for snow this Winter.

Gonzo · 03-12-2022 01:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952228#Comment_119952228

Yes gone are the very nice charts from earlier in the week and they have been replaced by charts showing too much moderation of the cold from the Atlantic/south and we don't really tap into any properly cold air. The ECM/GFS ensembles have now reverted to a slow warming trend from 9th of December where we go back to uppers closer to -5 rather than the -8 to -10 range we were seeing up to yesterday morning. There is still a colder than average period on it's way but sadly as of now it doesn't look like it's going to deliver much in the way of lying snow away from hills/mountains.

Still this is better than a raging Atlantic setup and hopefully we will see some frost from this at the very least. We have been here before were hopes of a decent and memorable cold spell get dashed only for them to return a day or 2 later so here's hoping we do get some decent upgrades across the board by the end of this weekend. I haven't given up on this one yet, there is still time for this to recover.

nacho libre · 03-12-2022 01:17PM

2010 and 2018 have skewed expectations, even if charts flirt with the idea of something like it, it's unlikely to verify due to some little piece of the jig saw missing for things to go perfect for us. That said I'll take what's currently on offer over our default pattern any time. Another thing to consider is even with a hemisphere profile that has extensive blocking, we, given our location, are always prone to milder interludes, but at the same time as long as the blocking remains it leaves open the possibility of a renewed push of cold in the future.

Villain · 03-12-2022 02:00PM

The latest show us exactly why +120 hours is fantasy island and why also taking a single op run from a model and basing forecast on that is poor.

Also as said above 2010 and 2018 were very rare events and if you are expecting that kind of event from FI charts then you are always going to be dissapointed.

Will be interesting to what the 12z ensembles show for the next 5 days.

Gaoth Laidir · 03-12-2022 02:07PM

See that mild boundary layer all the way up to past Nordkapp and into the Barents Sea, which never really goes away and in fact retreats back southward toward us by next weekend. It's all more of a maritime and not true continentally sourced airmass we get. Still better than nothing and some adjustments could tap more into northern Russia rather than Barents Sea.

.Donegal. · 03-12-2022 02:10PM

It’s only the 3rd of December. GFS and ECM still having lying snow for some especially northern countries for multiple days. I’d take that no problem, talk of 2010/18 every time snow is a possibility will almost always lead to disappointment.

The forecast isn’t nailed on yet, there could be upgrades or downgrades for snow chances from Wednesday onwards. Either way it’s only weather

esposito · 03-12-2022 02:21PM

The negative NAO will most likely present us with more opportunities throughout December I would have thought? Perhaps the 850 uppers will be much colder with the next outbreak/reload. I’m going to remain positive.

squarecircles · 03-12-2022 02:28PM

COLD WEATHER COMING OUR WAY.

Becoming progressively colder this weekend and next week

A big change in the weather is forecast over the coming days as the relatively mild weather of recent weeks is replaced by much colder conditions.

Meteorologist Matthew Martin says, “After such a mild November, the upcoming cold spell will be a shock to the system for many. There will be a good chance this weekend to make preparations for the winter weather. Lots of useful information and advice is available on the winter ready website https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/aa78b9-be-winter-ready/ .”

The transition to colder weather is currently underway as high pressure stretching from Russia to Scandinavia begins to retrogress towards Greenland allowing a cold easterly air-flow to become established over Ireland this weekend.

(Cold air-mass forecast to move over Ireland over the coming days)

Maximum daytime temperatures will drop back to single figures over the weekend and with the increased chance of some frost. There will be some showers too, especially over eastern counties on Sunday, where some of the showers will be heavy and bring the potential for hail and thunder and snow is possible over high ground.

Next week, it looks set to turn even colder. After relatively benign winter weather on Monday and Tuesday with lots of sunshine and just some showers, a much colder northeasterly air-flow is currently forecast to become established over Ireland by Wednesday.

(Forecast maximum temperatures across Europe for Thursday 8th December 2022)

Whilst there remains some uncertainty in forecast detail, there is growing confidence that it will turn very cold from Wednesday and through the latter days of next week. Wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow are expected at times along with the possibility for severe frost and ice. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in the low single figures with sub-zero temperatures by night.

Dazler97 · 03-12-2022 04:59PM

I know i was in - 22c last month in Canada but even if we get a - 10c that's something also its a damp cold over here not that dry air you'd be needing lip balm every hour to put on, I'm snow ready anyway just need ski pants as there very handy not just for skiing, lads don't forget we still have January and February for extreme cold so it's still early days as well especially for the longer term

Kermit_de_frog · 03-12-2022 05:08PM

It’s game on as far as I’m concerned

Kermit_de_frog · 03-12-2022 05:10PM

UKMO leaves us positioned well at 144

JanuarySnowstor · 03-12-2022 05:12PM

Sensational charts this afternoon!!

Much better depth of cold also. Time for a thread!!

dublincelt · 03-12-2022 05:21PM

Sorry guys, I know this is technical thread but when you say rollercoaster, you really mean the mother of all rollercosters!

bazlers · 03-12-2022 05:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952886#Comment_119952886

Hi kermit,

Always enjoy reading your posts and knowledge.

But do you not think there is a shut off of direct flow of substancial cold air in north Norway / Finland that will essentially waterdown what will potentially come our way?

SleetAndSnow · 03-12-2022 05:40PM

Ensembles still have an outlier, was wrong before editing this!

Gonzo · 03-12-2022 05:56PM

I'm still seeing nothing more than a 2 to 3 days cold spell. That low from the south-west is back in over us with much milder air from next Sunday onwards if the models verify. We need to keep that low well away from our shores, still time for it align to a more favorable track well to our south.

What we're seeing this afternoon is a bit of an improvement over this morning but we are still nowhere near the charts we were seeing up to yesterday morning. Let's see what the ECM brings and the GFS pub run later on. That low to our south-west needs to be watched.

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2022 06:16PM

Reading on TWO that a lot of this increased uncertainty is down to a sub-tropical system developing in southern north Atlantic. Not sure it could be classed as a hurricane as was suggested but interesting.

SleetAndSnow · 03-12-2022 06:19PM

Is it not very strange for a tropical storm to be developing in December? I suppose the waters are fairly warm still which could be causing it, but not too sure. Could also be an Iberia Low situation similar to a few days ago which was going to ruin our chances, but now is no longer an issue. Charts just testing the waters of what could happen maybe, developing lows where there usually are?

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2022 06:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119953031#Comment_119953031

We could be looking towards NE Europe over the next couple of weeks. Has been forecast for a few days now that a serious cold plunge could develop there towards mid-month. What way that goes for us we have no idea, but if the jet keeps more to the south than usual, then you never know, it just may help steer some of that fridged air mass towards us with time.

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2022 06:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119953091#Comment_119953091

I'm not sure, but I don't think hurricanes/tropical storms are unheard of in December.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST