FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

JanuarySnowstor · 02-12-2022 11:56PM

Considering the background signals the correct analysis in my opinion is that the ECM was a rogue run. All the pros and semi pros are confident that Greenie Heights will dominate through to mid month. I've a feeling tomorrow could be special as the ecm backtracks

Just a hunch

SleetAndSnow · 03-12-2022 12:01AM

My thoughts on this is that we won't know anything for sure until Sunday evening, until then, I would say expect a good few flips happening in all the models. GFS a few days ago was awful, toys thrown out of the pram, and now it's the best and the ECM is the bad guy.

Danno · 03-12-2022 12:08AM

Beautiful GFS 18z run there out into the 15th December.

Take this Midday chart for Thursday 15th:

Widespread lying snow and an ice-day!

John.Icy · 03-12-2022 12:08AM

18z is pretty damn alright tbf, doesn't jump ship to ECM...yet. Was never going to, climbdowns can be gradual.

It does however develop that LP at +144 more (down by Portugal) and it's a shift north vs. the 12z. This is the low that starts to send ECM to disaster by coming too far north. So we do need to watch that closely on the 0z. On this run it moves east into France and dissipates whereas the ECM sends the energy further north, along with milder air, just off the west coast. V.important to keep an eye on that, the rest of that 18z doesn't happen if that LP behaves differently. Once that was cleared, the subtropical storm stayed well out of the way and the Greenland high stayed strong.

Still concerned about the lack of proper cold, but I will trust those on here who know more about the intricacies of snowfall and think other factors are making up for this issue.

Danno · 03-12-2022 12:14AM

Reading some of the comments on here and it's clear some of you young pups got spoiled with 2010 and 2018. Those were two exceptional events. If we had these charts that are currently coming out between 1996 and 2009 (perhaps 2000 an exception) we'd been feckin' thrilled!

Danno · 03-12-2022 12:26AM

384h finishes with a blizzard.

Danno · 03-12-2022 12:38AM

Look at that for a temperature contrast on the 384h!

The front that separates the mild sector is a dumping ground for copious amounts of snow if it happens!

Meteorite58 · 03-12-2022 01:02AM

GFS 18Z is a wintry scene indeed well out into FI, will be interesting to see which tack the ECM takes from around next Sat/Sun.

GFS from Weds at +120hrs : very sharp severe frosts , can expect some wintry precipitation from around Thurs with snow possible going into the weekend. Would expect many snow capped mountains and some hills and low level snow a possibility in places. ECM fair chance of lying snow in Northern counties and some elsewhere in the Northern half of the country up till Sunday on the present run and then we have to see what it does with the Lp mentioned above.

Day time temps maybe up to 2 to 4C Weds, 2-3C in general on Thurs, Fri 2 to 4C but could struggle to get above 0 in parts of the North and could be up to 6C in the far S or SE, Sat big difference between the ECM and GFS - GFS far colder. Windchill will make it feel below freezing in general Weds through Sat at least.

Could be a bit breezy around the coasts at times giving an added wind chill, sharp frosts setting in quickly after dark. Icy stretches a distinct possibility.

If snow lies at the end of next week then temps could struggle to climb above 0C especially further North.

Included charts of temp potential over snow fields in N counties if they did materialize.

EDIT : spelling

Gaoth Laidir · 03-12-2022 01:15AM

This is going to be a big one.

giveitholly · 03-12-2022 01:20AM

OMG,Su Campu is on board

BLIZZARD7 · 03-12-2022 01:39AM

Whatever happens - should we not have a dedicated thread to discuss? Threads have been made for far less potential than this in the past…

WolfeEire · 03-12-2022 01:43AM

GEFS ensembles for 18z run show the very cold uppers in the latter half of the output were a tad, but not much, colder than the average 850hPa for the perturbations. See below

Overall, and in comparison to Friday's Oz run, there was a greater number of milder solutions. See below. Will be interesting to see what the next 0z brings and if that trends continues or reverses.

Images from Meteociel.fr

Danno · 03-12-2022 01:54AM

To sum things up one could say the models - in particular ECM, threw a wobble today, but the overall trends are still promising at this stage. This evening's UKMO fax charts are on song to bring us to the door of the cold that the GFS predicts. Looking at the different stalls (different models) I'd say we're in the low 60% level of confidence of decently cold and wintry conditions taking hold.

My rear-view mirror says that this cold this early is a good sign of the road ahead through Winter 2022/23, cold when she digs her teeth in is a tough animal to shake off.

Rougies · 03-12-2022 01:57AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951529#Comment_119951529

There's no need for a dedicated thread yet, we can discuss everything FI related here. I'm sure Kermit is chomping at the bit to start one, but real snow potential cold is still in FI without cross model agreement.

Danno · 03-12-2022 01:58AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951529#Comment_119951529

Patience my friend - the night is yet just a child!

Danno · 03-12-2022 02:02AM

Loughan House ACS is going to be an interesting follow this month...

Mafra · 03-12-2022 02:34AM

GL, Would love to hear your thoughts?

esposito · 03-12-2022 02:56AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951483#Comment_119951483

Do you mean the 0z ECM?

pauldry · 03-12-2022 03:22AM

Remember in 2010 looking at all the road temperatures of minus 18c. Is there any site other than the painfully slow wow that we can use for this as the cold spell comes.

I thought by now mild from the South would be coming but maybe 2022 is the year of textbook seasons and we saw an Arctic Sea Ice fightback over the Summer. Plus everything I've run the GFS pattern in the past few weeks I've noticed a pattern change to start December. It was 384 hours away now its 120. Surely something will happen even if not as much snow as we'd like. Plus West looks too mild on a lot of runs. Inland Ulster and Leinster do best I think. But as we know snow is a nowcast nor a forecast.

Larbre34 · 03-12-2022 03:53AM

No sense pulling the trigger yet, there is as much chance of mild muck prevailing as some wintry weather beyond 10 days.

Rebelbrowser · 03-12-2022 05:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951483#Comment_119951483

What exactly are you saying GL? You are always a good sense check for these potential events....

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 03-12-2022 07:28AM

ECM looking different to my untrained eye ?

almostthere12 · 03-12-2022 07:33AM

Gfs 0z is unbelievable and ECM is back on track........great runs this morning with low going well to the south.

CirrusBusiness · 03-12-2022 07:47AM

ECM is sober this morning. Game on!

CirrusBusiness · 03-12-2022 08:04AM

Looks decent for a longer cold spell.

bazlers · 03-12-2022 08:14AM

Im still not convinced of those uppers with the SSTs we have presently Around our shores.

At least we have better synoptics compared to yesterday evenings ECM to at least give us a shot...might still upgrade.

JanuarySnowstor · 03-12-2022 08:21AM

Yes it looks very marginal more like snow for the mountains, sleet for rural highground and cold rain for most.

A few days ago it looked like a new 2010, now it's a very watered down more normal cold spell.

The positives obviously are the ecm is back on track this morning and all the murmurings seem to lean towards a renewed attack mid month

Gaoth Laidir · 03-12-2022 08:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951661#Comment_119951661

It's going to be big...disappointment, imo. There's currently a lot of warmish air up there that needs to flush out before then. How much modification of the cold outbreak will take place? The hype needs to be tamed a bit.