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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    The relevance to the thread is that if you have people who have been working for years in what was traditionally understood to be a well-off profession, but they are still living at home with a parents because they can't afford a house, then it is a good indication that something is going to have to give!


    I would take it as relevant information, rather than dismissing it as being caused by some imagined penchant for avocados by that individual.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,012 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    But its going on pages now, all the points have been made, you will all never agree to disagree so around we go, all the while the thread is derailed for those of us with an actual interest in the current 'softening house market'. That has nothing to do with buying if an accountant 10 years back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,456 ✭✭✭tigger123


    How one specific profession is faring now, versus how it has fared in previous years, is not relevant to the housing market. You can't infer anything from it.

    Please, please, please give it a rest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    That's fine. If ye can't understand the relevance ye can continue on; The market is perfectly rational and sustainable and will onto continue to go up indefinitely. Any point to the contrary is simply a manifestation of over-indulgence on avocados


    (The only reason that that particular point went on so long is that facts were pointed out, then disputed, then evidence for said facts was given.)



  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭FedoraTheAura


    Currently bidding on an apartment in Dublin.

    Bid on it previously in August and it went sale agreed nearly 10% over the asking price. Sale fell through and it’s back on the market. It was quiet the first couple of weeks for offers and now is back up to what it sold for in August.

    It’s bizarre as a much nicer apartment sold in the same block for less just last month.


    I also just got a call from my mortgage broker this morning, he’s been absolutely amazing at every stage so far. He said I should start going through the application forms again so he can look as soon as January hits with the 4x lending rule change. He said I should be able to get offers from more banks than previously too. It’s been nice to hear someone upbeat about it all as it’s extremely bleak out there.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    you are the one still dragging it on

    have you found a job yet to distract you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 224 ✭✭gaming_needs90


    100% wishful thinking here but I wonder if there is element of a rush to go sale agreed on properties before the end of the year? My thinking is to get ahead of the CB lending limit increase.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,237 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    No I do not expect couple in there thirties to share rooms. However if occupancies rates have changed over 40years it impacts supply. It impacts it worse if the population is exponential increasing

    But people comparing supply and it availability 30+years ago with now are not comparing like for like.

    When you add reduced occupancies allow for people renting longer( all through college and longer single Iives) then of course it going to need a much larger supply of rental property. Somebody have to supply it. Maybe the good Fairy can wave her magic wand

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,531 ✭✭✭CorkRed93




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Ive been in the Mandalay Bay and the MGM grand. Both fantastic hotels. What are your own thoughts on this one? How will it effect the housing market in Ireland? Or how will it even effect Blanch.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,157 ✭✭✭OEP


    God forbid people want higher living standards than the economic backwater the was Ireland 30+ years ago



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    I gather you think your response shows that you are "smart". When it only shows you don't understand potential implications.


    Anyway, more on the topic here. It hit the redemption limit about an hour ago




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,014 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    That's extremely interesting, it may very well be under pressure.

    Back in 2019, CRH offloaded a poor enough preforming European distribution company to them for 1.9 billion and Blackstone gladly swept it up. If CRH couldn't squeeze anymore productivity out of it then I'd say Blackstone could have got burned badly by that deal.

    Be no loss seeing a few institutional landlords get a rude awakening and if one falls then the spotlight will be on all the others balance sheets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,237 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    But higher living standards cost money. When I left school the other lads that did apprentice's earned I would say below a median wage. Teachers, Nursres, Prison officers, Gardai, etc were earning more than qualified tradespeople at the start of there working life. A qualified trades person now earn as much as many of these at there max front year 2-3 after they are qualified

    Now while the average house has probably less blocks, plastering and timber ( unless timber frame) it has double the plumbing and electrical.

    So we if going to college a student spends 4-5 years in an ensuites bedroom compared to a 3-4 lads in room in digs, somebody has to pay for the extra resources used. It's costing 2-4 to e the money to put everything into that room before we include the ensuite

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    The things that old people go on about being luxuries are often not actually luxuries in modern times because they are now relatively cheap. "In my day I was only able to fly to London twice a year whereas now I see some young people going back and forth for a few long weekends a year" .... which doesn't take into account that a flight back in the day might have been more than a weeks wages whereas the student today is probably getting over and back for 20 quid. I hear that some of these pampered students these days even insist in indoor toilets rather than sh1tting into a bucket in a breezy outhouse too.

    And I'm not sure where you are getting this guff about en-suites. I know a good few current students. One coming to mind now who is living in the front room of a rented house she shares with a gang of other students in Dublin. I don't think she demanded an en-suite be installed off of what is supposed to be a sitting room.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,870 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,237 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Dwic we have managed to automate many processes, especially in the area of technology. The amount of automation in building is relatively small compared to elsewhere in industry it exists but it has taken more the risk and manual labour out of certain areas of it.

    On you example of air travel an air hostess in the 70's probably earned 20-30% more than a tradesperson and did 50% of the hours they do now. An airline pilot was a demi god back then. But I am not going to digress in there.

    Most specific provided student accommodation will have a high percentage of ensuites. Even where rooms ate not in specific student accomodation it is mostly two rooms to a bathroom in exceptional cases three rooms

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Quick question for you Bass. Transport yourself back to your early 20's. Have a think about the standard of living that your grandparents had at that time.

    Is your standard of living today worse than, better than, or equal to what they had on an absolute level at your current age? Lets even consider the basics of food and shelter. Comforts in your house etc.


    (I don't think most students get to live in student accommodation btw but that is a different matter. You are trying to compare people making use of old facilities with purpose built facilities. It would likely be far more efficient to build a dedicated student block with en-suites from scratch on a brownfield site than to use that site to build a couple of semi-Ds with only one toilet in each)



  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Beigepaint


    Regarding the guff about en-suites, I refer to my comment about how certain posters in this forum only know a handful of people under 35, and those they know are wasteful rich kids with iPhone 14s and 222 Golfs and don’t understand how the other 99% of people under 35 live.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,630 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Well if a big investment fund goes belly up, I would wager that a state-sponsored bailout will be on the cards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,237 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    But that increase in living standard costs, somebody somewhere is or has paid for it.

    You seem to think that those in the construction sector should return to the virtual indentured slavery that was there lot until the noughties.

    We have shifted resources away from the basic of food and shelter and transfered them to lifestyle choices.

    The biggest factor in housing is supply. Because of restricted supply we have the issue we are trying to deal with. However the resources required are in more demand and there is less of them

    That is in either Labour, skills or materials.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    To be fair, it's not going "belly up". In order to prevent firesales it limits the amount that can be redeemed in different time periods (this is a liquidity protection mechanism). The pertinent information is that investors (which tend to be wealthy people and institutions) are minded to be pulling their money out. There wouldn't be any state bailout if they did go to the wall.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    What would you make more money off? Building a block of 50 student apartments with en-suites and selling them for say 200k each, or throwing up 10 semi-Ds on the same site and selling them for 400k each? Building something from greenfield or brownfield is usually more economic than trying to retrofit. I think that these en-suites you are referring to are newly purpose built student housing.


    Your own standard of living today is likely higher than your grandparents was at your age. I doubt it's because they were lazy or eating too many avocados. I'm using that example to point out that it isn't really valid to do a simple comparison of standards from different time periods. You comparing your own late teens or early 20's to late teens or early 20's of today and concluding something from it would be the same as me comparing your own standard of living today with your grandparents back then and concluding they must have been lazy because they didn't have a centrally heated house and freezer full of foods from around the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    Is there a way to mute Donald Trump?, keeps on waffling about non related topics.

    Donald, you speak more rubbish then the real thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Well, below is an example of your own stellar contribution from just above

    Luckily you warned us Nostradamus. Although it's not really fair to be teasing us and not telling us the details of your secret knowledge and insight.


    Thread is about the housing market. I commented above on people trying to get their investments out of a massive property investment fund. And also that purpose built accommodation with dreaded en-suites might not be that inefficient compared to "traditional" housing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Doubt it. We're an extremely indebted nation now....



  • Registered Users Posts: 945 ✭✭✭WhiteWalls


    It's amazing how we're in December now yet months ago on here people were predicting the economy would be in a ball by now. Hasn't happened.

    Yes some small businesses may close in January but its not near as grim as predicted



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,870 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    thanks, i was more interested in what that poster had to say specifically rather than some variant of:


    the world is ending

    people have no idea whats coming

    there will be blood on the streets wait and see


    etc etc



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,237 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    You are gone off on another tangent completely again Donald but I will explain to you

    It would be moot which would be more profitable. The student apartments would take longer to get planning and cost multiples to design. As well the builder would have to complete the structure either through bank or other finance and will see no profit until the complete structure is finished. The ten houses semi D's

    Could be stage build and sold even if not it would be a relatively easy process to finance and build with less regulations to be adhered to. It actually shows you lack of understanding of of the building sector. Pre COVID I remember reading an article of somewhat similar issues in Commuter towns in Cork, one served by a rail connection the LA had a density requirements that needed about 50,% apartments in site, builder were not building on the sites as there was not that demand for that density. They could sell semiD's and townhouses but there was very little demand for apartments

    On my grandparents both them and my greatGP, farmed and made a living off a farm, actually they were extremely well off ( for there time)as there was an Orchard and they sold a lot of eating apples( before the advent of Grannysmiths and Pink Ladies). However agriculture efficiency now means the same farm was is not cable of sustaining less than the minimum wage.

    Productivity changed the living to be got from it. Considering that they had a good standard of living for there era now there is no sustainable income from it.

    From the 60- now cheap energy drove living standards. Only in the 90/00's did discretionary income spending balloon. Now because resources are more expensive and availability being curtailed it discretionary spending is coming under threat.

    Basically what that means is that building cost more due to a multiple of factors

    Slava Ukrainii



This discussion has been closed.
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