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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    All this is well & good Wibbs but any successful army must also have a civil society behind it. It's not enough for NATO & allies to just supply Ukrainian military with weapons and munitions. NATO & allies have also got to figure out how to stop the ongoing attacks on civil infrastructure in Ukraine. This was anticipated and why Ukraine were calling for a no fly zone over Ukraine early in the war. Russia's tactics are plain to be seen, what will NATO & allies do to stymie these attacks before it's too late.



  • Posts: 4,896 [Deleted User]


    No. No-fly zone equals escalation with all the unintended consequences that that entails as Wibbs has outlined. NATO is absolutely right to pursue its current strategy in my view. Loads of you are saying what an appalling state Russia and its military are in. Why not give it more time to see what happens because of this?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,037 ✭✭✭jmreire




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,037 ✭✭✭jmreire


    To be honest pcardin, that's a bit unfair to animals, but I don't have an apt name to describe them either, except escapees from hell, because the do fit that bill.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,826 ✭✭✭✭Mr. CooL ICE


    I don't work with any russian speakers, but used to work with a load of them in a call centre a good few years back. They were collectively known as "the russians" but in reality, very few, if any of them were from russia; they were mostly from the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. I got on well with them but was never friendly enough to remain in contact. But by god, I'd love to pick their brains right now.

    I don't use FB much but am friends with some of them, and curiosity got the better of me. Didn't see a thing posted from any of them. A few of them seemed to be spending most of the summer on holidays going by the sheer amount of beach-with-drinks selfies, but that's it. Going by their social media output, there isn't any war going on.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,037 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I'm looking forward to the day Ukraine will have peace talks with Ruzzia because it will mean two things: (1) They will have beaten the Ruzzians out of Ukrainian territory completely and (2) Russia will have sued for peace, and the agreement will be on Ukrainian terms.

    Slave Ukraini .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,429 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Russia have been using their S300 in a ground attack role for quite sometime. So a Russian s300 missile hitting a Ukrainian apartment building is not evidence of a misfire or accident etc... It's actually evidence of a war crime.



  • Posts: 2,015 [Deleted User]


    Then it should have reached the news by now if that was the case,dont you think?



  • Posts: 2,015 [Deleted User]


    Russias precision guided misses from the soviet era have 60% failure rate in Ukraine,i somehow doubt Russias nuclear soviet era missiles are any better.

    You need to maintain and upgrade to be able to make old missiles work,and with russias corruption,i somehow doubt it.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/up-to-60-failure-rate-for-some-russian-missiles-in-ukraine-us-officials-say/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,037 ✭✭✭jmreire


    How would they feel? I'd say it's a fair bet that the only problem they would have with it is that they could not do it themselves personally. There's a post back a bit showing a twitter feed where an elderly lady who had lived under Ruzzian occupation for several months, showing her handing coils of machine gun ammunition to a Ukrainian soldier, and telling him " Kill the Bastards, kill them all every last one of them". And that would be a very popular mindset in Ukraine now and who could blame them? Let any poster on here who is proposing basically peace at any price, don't bomb Ruzzia etc, go and live in Ukraine (or any bombed city in the world) and see how you feel then about the bombers.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,326 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    That's assuming NATO wants to get directly involved Furze. They clearly don't. It would be "bad business". So far. Which also takes putin's "argument" that NATO were threatening Russia and that's why he had to start this war and blows it out of the water. Just add it to the existing pile of his bullshít reasons.

    A no fly zone is simply a non runner. That's a direct escalation and one of the first things that would happen is putin would send a few sacrificial lambs in aircraft to be shot down by NATO. NATO knows this, putin knows this. Hell, Zelensky knows this. He quite rightly asks for the impossible to get more of the possible and that has worked very well so far. He'll likely get more AA systems than he would otherwise.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,037 ✭✭✭jmreire


    It was always this. Nato encroachment was ever only the thinly fabricated excuse to make it palatable. The same NATO countrys existed before and while Yanukovych was president of Ukraine but was not a problem then. It was only when Putin's stooge was dethroned that NATO became such a threat that an invasion and complete takeover of Ukraine was essential to Putin's plans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    So you believe that Ukrainian civil society should just suck it up and be collateral damage? Even if that affects their military capacity to drive the Russians out?

    How would you propose to have them defend themselves? Or maybe you don't and would be happy to see the military effort undermined?



  • Posts: 4,896 [Deleted User]


    So you're allowing a 40% success rate for their nukes too (better than my guess, 30%) which would suggest about 475 warheads reaching their targets? Outcome is still devastating for those on the receiving end. Here's an interesting piece from 2005. It believes there was an 8% failure rate for all missiles launched by the Strategic Rocket forces.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,479 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Screenshot_20221124-122331_Chrome.jpg

    I approve of this.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    A no fly zone leading to a direct NATO-Russia confrontation would arguably be worse for the Ukrainian citizens, as they would be caught in an even worse crossfire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    "one of the first things that would happen is putin would send a few sacrificial lambs in aircraft to be shot down by NATO."

    And what would happen then Wibbs? Assuming NATO & allies apply a defensive no fly zone, would Putin keep sending in sacrificial planes? Obviously NATO would have to destroy any ground based Russian military units seeking to down the NATO planes. But assuming they could limit this to occupied Ukrainian territories, there would be no direct attack on Russian territory. The point is that Russia would like to avoid confrontation with NATO etc, why not put the ball in their court and let them decide whether to take the gamble. It's a logical next step and one that needs to be taken quickly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Posts: 4,896 [Deleted User]


    As I already said to you yesterday, I support current NATO policy. Why would I want to see Ukraine's current strategy "undermined"? They're doing pretty well I would have thought.



  • Posts: 2,015 [Deleted User]


    Exactly,NATO expansion,nazis,bio labs etc etc is all part of Russias disinformation and propaganda

    Putins invasion of Georgia,Moldova and Ukraine was planned for many years and at the right time



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Maybe you should ask the Brits who were caught up in the Blitz. What would they have preferred, to sit there and let the Luftwaffe attack without much restraint. Or have an air force to help defend the airspace??



  • Posts: 2,015 [Deleted User]


    No i suggest 60% failure rate of the 30% you mentioned

    And alot of the warheads needs to be maintained more than the missiles,and some are even used in nuclear powerplants and ships,submarines etc.

    Would you fire a armed nuclear missile knowing it could come in return?I sure wouldnt

    And that link you sent i wouldnt trust at all,sorry

    That looks like a misinformation and propaganda site



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Hmm... not convinced by your bona fides. But each to their own.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,326 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I know it's not so optimistic JM, but I'm still running with my take of months ago that it'll likely end up with Russia keeping Donbas, currently Crimea is so far off the table it's in the next room, if not next door. The bit that's still up in the air is the landbridge between them. Now I certainly didn't imagine how quickly the Russians would be routed in Kharkiv and Kherson(never mind Kyiv and elsewhere in the north east), but even that IMHO reinforces my early position.

    I think the Russians are playing for the same outcome. They know unless Ukraine gives up and so does NATO they can't take the country and pulling back/running like hell to reinforce the bits they're likely to keep and/or will be bargaining chips is their overal strategy. I'll bet now that this promised "300,000 Russian troops" coming in will be reinforcements for those areas, not anything like a force to push forward. It doesn't really matter if they're half trained oulfellas, reinforcing a position requires a lot less than gaining ground and more about meat puppets behind walls and trenches. IMHO they're so crazily hellbent on getting Bahkmut because they want to keep it down the line, rather than its actual strategic value for another push forward.

    Hitting civilian structures and civilians would also play into this strategy. It's nada to do with moving forward and taking more of Ukraine, because that's a busted flush. It's to try and speed up the likelihood of "talks". Then putin can claim he never wanted Ukraine anyway, that was a trick, that he has "defeated NATO", "denatzified" Donbas, kept Crimea and created a land bridge between them for the Glorious Russian Empire.

    Now Ukrainians have buggered his plans from the start so they could do it again, but IMHO trying to take back the land bridge to the coast would be like Bahkmut times eleventy over hundreds of miles against a dug in and reinforcing enemy. NATO forces could do it in a month, if not less, but not without casualities, because as we've seen Russia gives two fecks about their human wave bulletstoppers and that's off the table anyway because of MAD and political reasons too. There are enough moaning about supplying weapons to Ukraine, even though it's a bargain to bugger Russia, that would ramp up considerably if flag draped coffins were coming back to NATO airfields.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Posts: 4,896 [Deleted User]


    That still leaves about 140 warheads reaching their targets (of their land based missile forces, I haven't included the submarine launched stuff). Total deployed forces, including SLBM capability, is 524 missiles with 1461 warheads. Allowing for your (pessimistic) success ratio (12%) thats 175 warheads hitting their targets. Total stockpile of their nukes is c6000. This would allow for warheads that you suggest are in storage, under maintenance, other uses etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,037 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Why would they not? They are the ones who are suffering under Ruzzian brutality. Ruzzian POW's are treated humanely by Ukrainian military in accordance with IHL, but the same cannot be said about Ukrainians captured by the Ruzzians, on the contrary, in fact. But if any Family who had lost members or suffered under Ruzzian occupation got their hands on Ruzzian's, the same humanity could not be guaranteed. And who could blame them? I'm pretty sure that every time its shown on TV, Internet etc. where a Ruzzian tank, fuel depot, or group of Ruzzian soldiers being destroyed by Ukrainian forces, a big cheer goes up. Seeing Moscow buildings being bombed would cause even greater celebrations. You can imagine the amount of suffering it takes to destroy the natural humanity in people, to make them behave like this. But this is what Ruzzia has done to the Ukrainian People. Slava Ukraine.



  • Posts: 2,015 [Deleted User]


    If you compare the Russian budget for upgrading and maintaining their nuclear arsenals,and Russia have more than US,you will understand why there is something not right.

    Russia spends 10% of what US have in their budget,that doesnt add up.

    And with Russias corruption and state of the rest of their military,i am still doubting the condition of Russias nuclear weapons.

    And if you compare it with UKs nuclear upgrades,it gets even more obvious.




  • Posts: 4,896 [Deleted User]


    Poor analogy. Britain had their own excellent capabilities, including an airforce to boot. The radar equipped Bristol Beaufighter was up and running as early as November 1940 for example.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,037 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, and this is well understood by military planners in the west, EU, UK US etc. And the only way to prevent this is to stop Putin here and now. They badly need to ramp up weaponry and other military equipment, enough to finish this ASAP, while Putin is on the back foot, and not give him the chance to regroup.



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  • Posts: 4,896 [Deleted User]


    Thats up to you mate. I only post what I honestly believe. (like us all I hope).



This discussion has been closed.
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