Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Traditionally, jobs that an area needed paid enough that workers could live relatively close to where they work. That is no longer the case.

Dublin is facing an unprecedented shortage of teachers due to a cost of living thats far too high in the capital. At what point do we recognise that house price inflation is crippling the economy at large?

Hows this for tradition.

Stop looking at the past. Ireland has never been here before and an acute lack of affordable housing options, either renting or buying, is creating a dysfunctional society.

If people are forced to look elsewhere, then who is going to do the jobs required to keep society functioning like teachers, nurses, gards, childcare, cleaners, retail.

Who is rewriting history? You seem to be completely ignoring the current state of affairs and hand-waving it away as normal "shur we had hard times in the past"

We never had such a drastic crisis in teacher recruitment, gardai recruitment in the greater dublin area. Things have never been this bad. The cost of living (incl housing) has just gotten so high that plenty of essential jobs just arent viable in the greater dublin area anymore. Grand if youre making 80-100k in Google or Meta, not so grand if you're on a graduate teaching salary or on lower end of garda payscale. You can barely rent on those salaries anymore - which is why people are voting with their feet and moving out of Dublin. The rest of the country isnt struggling nearly as much for recruitment of these roles than Dublin, Kildare, Wicklow are.

Ultimately this means that housing situation makes Dublin even more dysfunctional, while the rest of the country with more reasonable housing costs can continue to function. The GDAs loss I suppose. Will funny to see people like yourself in 5 years time blaming the teacher and gardai staffing crises on people choosing not to live in Dublin and surrounds. 🤣 ("Why are teachers doing as I suggested 5 years ago and moving somewhere they can afford? How selfish!")

How are we supposed to continue any kind of growth in Dublin area if we cannot get teachers to teach in schools? Or gardai to tackle crime?

And the issue right now is not people leaving the country, its leaving Dublin/Kildare/Wicklow. Nobody wants to teach there anymore because its too expensive to live anywhere near work. And there are not replacements coming, as evidenced by the unprecedented staff retention crisis. They cannot staff many schools, even with substitutes.

Its pragmatic for those who choose to leave, I agree. However the ramifications of that are that schools in GDA are going understaffed. Soon Dublin education will become significantly worse than that of the rest of the country. But sure thats just pragmatism.

Tell that to the people who can afford to buy, but have to drive miles across town because they cant get their kids into schools.

From the article I posted

You seem to want to focus on a 'generation that needs to feel special' as though its sour grapes, but cant seem to grasp the bigger picture that this affects all of us.

How can we solve our problem when we have a leftist media and government who trumpet the poor all the time. You cannot say things like "we have too many refugees coming in", The fact is when bill time comes the same people are expected to pay the bills by overtaxing labour. The facts are successive governments since the last crash had no money to build affordable houses due to pumping cash into areas like welfare and our public sector pay and pensions. Now the leftist attitude has upped a notch and I seen a figure of 62k refugees coming in from the Ukraine alone, there are stories of Poish people who have a house in Poland coming here and going straight on the housing list. The issue now is those who were supposedly "the Irish" poor in the country are now competing on a global scale with regards to who needs resources using local recourses. We cannot keep paying out for this its simply not doable.

The main issues we as a country face IMO are 4 fold.

We need more housing, where are the modular homes? There needs to be a change in the Nimby attitude from people who want to support the poor but not in their back yard. There also needs to be changes to the planning procedure lots of unused commercial buildings in Dublin city center that could be turned into apartments quite quickly with a change in planning use.

We need more rules to protect against welfare tourism and any person not fitting the strict criteria of the refugee laws should be sent packing, including those who have no direct flight to Ireland and those who arrive in Ireland and throw their papers away before getting here and play dumb. We are a soft touch for welfare. There also needs to be a crackdown on welfare. There are too many baby daddies being left off the hook and there are too many new daddies coming in and working and living with ladies who have a kid and who have been gifted a free/cheap accommodation so basically milking the system.

We need a crackdown on politicians. I find it hard to believe any of them as there is no real consequence to spinning a yarn to get power and when in power its all about staying there. This is simple all political parties should be asked what 10 things they will change, introduce or remove and that is the manifesto , this sh1te of having a manifesto like "War and Peace" is useless and very few people will bother reading it. So 10 short points as in "I will build x amount of housing in my years in government". So concise and a way to measure a politician performance. With this, a politician in power should receive a % of the pension based on how many points they managed to implement in their time. So if its 2 then 20% we need more stick for these guys than carrots.

We need to break our spend side down into % of what is taken in and we really need to take the foot off the neck for those working. So say a certain % for welfare, PS pay and pensions, infrastructure - etc. We need to move away from our reliance on corpo tax (if we had not been so successful in this area 2022 would of been an absolute clusterphuck). Our politicians need to go through our spend root and branch and cut the fat.

The above may feel like tough measures but this is how the working people who as Leo says "getting up in the morning" have been treated for the last number of years, we are like a magic money tree that others seem to just want to take more and more and its strange to have a completely dysfunctional country were welfare competes with low paying jobs and low paying jobs compete with higher paying jobs and the amount of tax paid at such a low level is a barrier for working harder and longer. It just beggars belief that the majority of Irish politicians have left this status quo go for so long.

Where has anyone mentioned this today? People arent 'bleating about dysfunction'. People are suffering.

Almost 5 years to the day

"Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy has said that the demand for housing is going to get worse before it gets better, however he maintained that Government policies were working because more houses would be built in 2018."

....anytime soon

2017 was the year my landlord in Ranelagh said "the nephew is coming up from the country for college", and 6 months later to the day my apartment that was €1050 a month went on Daft for €1800 (the poor nephew must not have got his spot 😥)after it was "substantially upgraded". I agree that around this time felt like the city changed for the worst. The Bernard Shaw was soon to be closed, and all the fun seemed to be sucked out of the place by greed and a huge increase in petty crime. Never thought I'd say it, but the landlord done me a huge favour when I look back on it.

Meanwhile, many are going to get burned. Be careful out there.

Hopefully you are right. Its well overdue.

Seeing as you've been around the block and its always the same please give a prediction - by what % do you think prices will drop and over what time frame?

Its very hard to call the direction prices will go. Up until 6 months ago I could not see them dropping and I started to change my view from June of this year, yet things like the lending rules being changed, the government introducing new schemes for FTBs and possibly the most overwhelming fact of our explosion of growth in our demographics, I don't give much heed to David McWilliams but his latest podcast is all about preparing Ireland for 10 million people and he has a very convincing argument for that number. The fact is we need supply and quick but the goal posts keep moving as more and more people need to be housed as time ticks by. Also we don't know how much longer interest rates will rise some people are saying they could start dropping in the next 12 months. Who knows way to many variables now to call it and with the price of building a new house forever increasing no one will build at a loss and prices for new builds going up pushes up second hand property as well. Dav010 may be a bit entrenched in his view but he is correct in some aspects if people cant find a place to live there is no certainty that prices are going to drop and you would be looking at yourself in the mirror in 10 years time having paid out for very high rents and then still not being able to afford to buy when you could of went else where for a better quality of life.