Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Sigmundo

Dublin Daft Asking Price Analysis 30-Nov.pdf

A little ongoing analysis of the listings on daft 20th Nov vs 30th Nov (Dublin Only). Properties Analyzed: 1-5 beds / properties above €2M excluded / Properties with no price excluded. I plan to do this every couple of weeks to get a view on the dynamics. This is not a professional or scientific analysis...

Number of properties listed within parameters -5.3% (4227 vs 4003)

Average asking price as good as static (-0.3%), some outliers

Most significant drop in listings Semi-D (-7.2%) & Terrace (-7.1%)

Negligible drop in average price per square metre overall (-0.2%), but I think this is the one to watch over time as it may signal trend changes...

Any opinions from the pros (i'm not one)

Thanks...

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938766#Comment_119938766

Element of time of year but I noticed much poorer supply once new central bank rules announced. They come into effect in January. Tbh if I was selling I'd have held off couple months until new year too.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943561#Comment_119943561

Yea but if you believe you'll get more for your current house by selling in January, then you must also realise you'll be paying more for the next one you buy, so it doesn't really mean much.

The biggest reason is nobody wants to be getting their houses in shape for viewings over Christmas.

Villa05

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41018762.html

The absolute brass neck. Would this be tolerated in any other country.

Buy an apartment in this country is russian roulette

The developer of the Phoenix Park Racecourse, Flynn & O’Flaherty, is still on site overseeing further phases of the development but has told the affected owners that they could see no basis to get involved in the cost of fixing the defects as “the apartment blocks were completed approximately 18 years ago”. 

Legally, the developer is liable for defective work for only seven years after completion

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943590#Comment_119943590

If you are selling to buy of course.

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943590#Comment_119943590

Not everyone is trading up who is selling. Plenty of landlords could be exiting. Some people selling will also be building or maybe moving to home house. But ya like I said its a period things are usually quieter anyway.

MacronvFrugals

Interesting story in the FT over the last hour or so, Blackstone are invested in the Irish commerical proeprty market.

Also, looking like something is stirring in Asia or just a load of margin calls!

About 70 per cent of redemption requests have come from Asia, according to people familiar with the matter, an outsized share considering non-US investors account for only about 20 per cent of BREIT’s total assets.

One partner in the fund told the Financial Times that the poor recent performance of Asian markets and economies may have put pressure on investors, who now need cash to meet their obligations.

jimmybobbyschweiz

The thing is, the Chinese economy and property market has crashed but we haven't really seen fallout over in the West as of yet so people are thinking that it won't affect us. In reality, property bubbles don't actually pop like a bubble does; they deflate like a tyre; gradually, then suddenly as they say.

The issue with Blackstone are that it is claiming 9% net returns this year compared to something like 22% declines in the DJ REIT Index and investors are wondering if it is just Blackstone using stale and/or private methods to value that are giving the illusion of solid performance because all investors know that rising interest rates results in less returns from property; like night follows day.

This is where I think the institutionals in Ireland have been keeping the market artificially high; they, similar to Blackstone, are largely totally private. In fact, REITs (being publicly listed entities) aren't as active as people think in Ireland. The private institutionals do some accounting voodoo whereby having a few apartments occupied at X rent means they can do some sort of entire block valuation based on X rent being the yield available, even if the apartments are empty (and walking around Grand Canal Dock and the Docklands in the evening the last year years, for example, would indicate that quite a lot of places are sitting empty. Whereas the REITs need cash to pay dividends so cannot get away with the same tricks (funnily enough, one of the few residential REITS in Ireland, i-RES, is not that unreasonable in its rents in my experience compared to say a Kennedy Wilson or Greystar (actual vulture) fund.

Villa05

The real fallout in commercial property will come when existing leases expire. What's visible currently is new business which is marginal for the sector. Would it be conservative to estimate that 25% less office space would be needed if the full effects of WFH filtered through the system. Add in the layoffs in the IT sector and potential recession in the coming year. It could get very messy

enricoh

Builders turning off the mixers, I read yesterday that 200k pps numbers were issued this year to immigrants that have moved here. Less supply + more demand = not much hope of prices dropping imo.

The Irish Times: Homebuilding slumps by 16% as construction inflation soars – The Irish Times.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/12/01/homebuilding-slumps-by-16-as-construction-inflation-soars/

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948258#Comment_119948258

Na cannot be happening according to some here. Builders will just restart they have to according to them, they will build at a loss.

enricoh

Some amount of local young lads heading to oz, Canada etc in the new year- a lot of them in building and associated trades. Any slowdown in work and the young fellas will be gone.

It'll be even moreso dad's army working in the building game. Labour ain't gonna be getting any cheaper that's for sure.

IWW2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948428#Comment_119948428

You are wrong, everything is going to get cheaper. So many people are uninformed here and state "thats for sure"🤣

Montys return

Any recent data on occupancy rates in luxury apartments around Dublin? I remember reading a huge percentage around Clancy Quay was empty, but that was during COVID where the demand collapsed with full time WFH for a while.

Irish REIT at 99.6% occupancy, there were bluffers on here stating that investment funds were leaving units empty to keep rental rates high,

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/irelands-largest-private-landlord-has-effectively-no-vacancies-showing-scale-of-demand-41904622.html

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948548#Comment_119948548

Was there not accounting trickery to back that up?

Speaking of trickery does anyone know the definition of occupancy. Could it be leased to a MNC or state but be in fact empty

jj880

Intel asking manufacturing staff to take unpaid leave. What is with these companies in the mouth of Christmas. Bunch of cnuts.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948755#Comment_119948755

Snatching at fresh air now

TagoMago

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948520#Comment_119948520

No data but I did hear the reason Clancy Quay was half empty during COVID was because they refused to drop rental prices mid 2020 - 2021, expecting a huge resurgence post-pandemic. Not sure how that tactic will work for them next year if the more pessimistic outlook becomes reality

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948548#Comment_119948548

Whats Kennedy Wilsons occupancy rates at silicon docks where rents are over 3 grand a month.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948274#Comment_119948274

If you think people will be going gang busters into getting extensions while we are entering a recession your mad. The big ticket items are always first to go builders will have to drop their margins or hit the unemployment line. This can be seen in the latest report on Construction output. Construction output is down 4.5% from this time last year and down over 11% in Q3. The signs are not good at all if your working in construction that gravy train is leaving the station. The construction output is similar to the drop off that was seen during the last covid lockdowns. So if we are on target for meeting our house build targets according to the housing minister this year , then it must mean the market for extensions is in the toilet and I have first hand experience of this.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-output

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949125#Comment_119949125

It's voluntary, I think.

Would be good policy to get over a troubled period rather than leaving people go. Similar to Germany in the financial crisis. Skills shortage been considered when cutting costs. If only the property sector considered the risks of there actions in a similar fashion.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949210#Comment_119949210

Your in Limerick, have you noticed the empty office buildings all over the city/suburbs

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949559#Comment_119949559

People are missing the point they would not be asking if everything was AOK. So watch this space and why would any one leave voluntarily when tech are shedding left right and center?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949590#Comment_119949590

It's asking for unpaid leave not voluntary redundancy

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949971#Comment_119949971

but the company is asking for people to take it - The question is if all was going well why would they be doing this

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950051#Comment_119950051

Because they consider the reduction in workload is temporary and they are probably looking to the future, where staff that leave with particular skills will be hard to replace/get back in 1-2 years time

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949567#Comment_119949567

We were not in commenting about office buildings we were discussing occupancy rates for residential tenancies. You started on about accountancy trickery or units leased to MNC's or the state and be empty.

She numbers she stated is full occupancy.

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949559#Comment_119949559

Its the timing. Let people have Christmas before the worry of cutbacks at Intel. I cant see much uptake of unpaid leave with whats going on with the cost of living. Next step will be staff cuts.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950521#Comment_119950521

Always people looking for time off, queue out the door in my place for paternal leave unpaid, can be very tax efficient as well. Cost of living burden is not equally distributed and I'd say some Intel workers would prefer some time off