Russia - threadbanned users in OP

It's coming from that Mark Milley interview from last week (?) where he estimated the Russian losses to be at around 100k (wounded and killed), and Ukrainian losses "probably the same".

Edit: source added

The facade of SMO (special military operation) has well and truly been wiped away, its frequently heard now, even the propaganda show run by the 3 puppeteers, Skabeeva, Simonyan and Solovyov. Even back in the heady days leading up to the invasion, Putin had said on Russian TV that if the Mother / Fatherland were under attack, he would go nuclear. In the last few months, when Ukraine started to turn the tide against Russia, there was a big increase in nuclear talk from Russia until China told Putin to shut it, this was reinforced by Biden, when he had his department brief their opposite Nrs on the Russian side as to what exactly would happen, and happen very quickly, if any nuclear device or so-called dirt bomb was used. Basically, he could say "Good-Bye" to his black sea fleet, and his military on the territory of Ukraine. And since then, the nuclear rhetoric has indeed been dialed back. But there's another reason why he will not go nuclear, and that's his own life, it's the most important thing in existence to him, and I doubt very much if he will risk that.

Basically, when someone is pushing for "peace talks". and using humanitarian grounds as the basis for their position, it always seems to be that Ukraine has to "accept" the Russian position. Now why would they agree to that? when in every location that Ukraine has liberated, thousands and thousands of horror stories are emerging, Torture, Rape, Murder. So what's changed? The Russians will change their barbaric ways? There will be peace talks only on Ukrainian terms, and no others. And what civil war are you talking about? In Ukraine???? Forget it!!! Russian atrocities have welded the Ukrainian people together into a solid block, that's being reinforced each day, Putin's plan has backfired. And soon now, he will have his own civil insurrection to worry about, it has already started with more and more soldiers refusing to go and fight for him.....wait until they start coming back home and spreading the truth of what Putins war really is about.

I myself have no desire to watch any videos or links of anyone being blown up, run over by a tank, or beaten to death with hammers.

so back to one of my boring posts and links about other things.

This story tells me that the USA is still 100% behind Ukraine and has not wavered in the least despite what the last week might suggest.

The US has all but said if Ukraine fancies their chances at retaking Crimea then the US will support them in that endeavour.

Quote from the link

 Austin said. “We won’t [and] haven’t prescribed to the Ukrainians what they can and cannot do. And so our focus is to continue to provide them the means to be successful in their endeavors ... Crimea is an issue to be thought through and sorted out by the Ukrainian leadership.”

As for the pow-pow between President Joe and Zelensky... I think that was a bit of play acting on both guy's parts aimed at duping Putin.

That's a meaningless statement. They haven't prescribed to what Ukraine "can and can't do?"

It was a very short video, a few seconds. I thought it was a joke vid. Might have been too...

"And what civil war are you talking about? In Ukraine???? Forget it!!! Russian atrocities have welded the Ukrainian people together into a solid block, that's being reinforced each day"

Definitely! Any of my Russian friends (which is only 5 to be fair) who live in Ukraine have #Russiaterroriststate all over their socials.

The basic problem with this post is that your hypothesis assumes the worst possible scenario for Ukraine and the best possible position for Russia.

Both are incredibly unlikely to hold true.

The Iraqi situation isn't remotely comparable. That conflict exposed long-standing and deep-rooted cultural and sectarian divides within that country, which was basically held together forcefully by a dictator. Once he was gone, it reverted to unstable tribalism on both a local and wider scale for a long time.

Same thing happened in Afghanistan with the collapse of the national army post US withdrawal. A collective of people bound together as a country, who had no real interest in being part of said country, no real sense of national identity, just a forced collective of regions and tribes across a vast landscape.

Ukraine is completely different, they have a rock solid cultural and national unity, and are solidly unified against the Russian invasion.

This war couldn't have gone any worse for Russia, nor any better for Ukraine, given the circumstances. The idea that they now should enter into negotiations with a vicious, unwanted invader is wrong. Russia is free to withdraw at any time.

Anyone who even insinuates that both sides have an equal responsibility to end this war is plain wrong. The onus is entirely on Russia. They launched this illegal invasion, they're the ones perpetrating war crimes on a scale not seen in Europe for decades.

If Ukraine decides to come to the table, fine, but let it be on their terms, they are the ones fighting this war against an unjust, illegal, and vicious invasion, which they have every right to resist to the fullest extent possible and for as long as they see fit.

Russia is losing this war as it currently stands. Ukraine is fighting a war of survival, Russia is fighting a war of conquest. Very different things, and very different war aims to try and achieve and pursue even medium term.

Quote: "us estimates

40K civilian killed aswell,they've paid an horrendous toll.....and it's only going to escalate from here,as it moves from skirmish to pitches battles to dislodge Russians from entrenched defensive positions" Unquote.

Had Putins original 3-day plan worked, and he had taken Ukraine, the current figure of 40'000 civilians dead would pale into insignificance (and I don't mean that disrespectfully) by comparison with how many civilians Putin's hordes would have killed since February? 100'000, 200'000, 300'000, 400'000, 500'000??? Take your pick. And I'm talking about the civilians, and not the military. As for the battles with the entrenched Russians, so far, all things considered, the Ukraine military has done remarkably well, given the nature of war itself. Their strategies will be talked about for years and included in military academy teaching.

Quote:- "Meaningful peace talks are needed badly imo,otherwise we're looking at a civilian catastrophe next year and a likely breakdown in civil life,which will cause a lurch into civil war conditions with Wagner group likely killing with impunity aswell in the occupied regions", UnQuote

It may help if you shared your thoughts on what would be involved in these peace talks. Personally, for me, peace talks only when Ukraine looks for them. Breakdown in civil life...well so far, the only breakdown in civil order is where the Russians / Wagner are in occupation, and both the Russians and Wagner group have been killing with impunity since day one. So what's new there? Definitely no breakdown in Civilian life in the Ukrainian liberated areas

Collaborators: - Since the dawn of mankind, collaborators have met murderous ends during wars. Remember what the French resistance did to collaborators? Even the women who had German boyfriends.? Public shaming by cutting off their hair? Even nearer home, here in Ireland? The Quisling's? But whatever the Ukrainian resistance or even civilians have done, it pales into insignificance compared to the horrors Putins murderers have done in Ukraine, and it's going on now this minute, and will go on until the last Russian has left Ukrainian territory.

Spill over into other Country's? Yes, had Putins plans worked, I'm pretty sure that there would be multiple wars going on now, especially in Country's bordering Russia, and maybe further afield. How about East Germany? Alaska? (yes it's on Putins list) Now thats serious refugee figures you would have, not to mention a recession that would make the present on like a storm in a teacup. And how about conscription in the west? Yup. That would be a possibility too, had Putin not been stopped. We in the west owe a dept of gratitude to Ukraine for stopping Putin.

The war in the Balkans bears absolutely no comparison to what is happening in Ukraine, and where one country illegally invaded an independent sovereign state. The war in the Balkans started when the former Yugoslavia split up along religious / ethnic lines after the death of Tito. Both Croatia and Serbia, do not have civil strife now, in Bosnia there is still friction between the ethnic / religious groups, but the war is long finished. This civil war you speak about is not going to happen in a liberated Ukraine.

Sanctions:- Yes the sanctions are working, and biting deeper all the time, with another round being planned, and due to kick in soon Why are the Russians trying every trick in the book to get them removed? And on a more personal note, my friends there tell me that for ordinary Russians (and not just the oligarchs) they are feeling the shortages in the shops, with it becoming more and more like the old USSR era shortages. Back to the USSR GUM stores soon.

NATO:- When the time is right for NATO / US to put boots on the ground, they will do so, for now, strategically they are happy to keep supplying Ukraine with ever increasing amounts of the armament's that they need.

Peace Talks:- Quote "At no point have I said, nor suggested anyone accept Russia's position,nor is it a precondition of a peacetalks....any functioning adult can see this reality. Unquote.

Yet you imply the thousands of deaths that will occur unless there are peace talks. So the humanitarian Crisis blackmail bit...When posters speak about the civilian death toll as justification or used a lever for peace talks, I'm always suspicious about their motivation. Where's the guarantee that there won't be thousands of deaths even with a peace agreement, given Russia's history of signing treaties, and breaking them even before the ink is dry? And this is well understood by any functioning, or even non-functioning adult. Russian agreements are less than worthless, Russia now urgently needs breathing space, to conscript and train more soldiers, to replenish its armaments etc. And any "Peace" movement from the Russian side is to be seen in that light.

As I mentioned earlier, I'm all for a peace talks, but only when Zelensky agrees to them, and not before. It has to be Ukraine's decision, without pressurization from 3rd parties. You will only have peace in Ukraine when the Russians have left, and not before.