Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Chips Lovell · 10-11-2022 04:10PM

Going to have to disagree with you there. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail pay lip service to union with Northern Ireland because there's nothing to be lost by doing so. You'd want to be fairly naive to think that they actually want it. It's the kind of thing that would make Varadkar or Martin come out in hives.

If you don't believe me, wait till this becomes a live issue (if it ever does). The likes of Varadkar and Martin will say something along the lines of "this will cost us x billion a year and require a significant restructuring of our state but of course it'll be worth it" while Sinn Fein will be telling us it'll be a net economic benefit.

Sam Russell · 10-11-2022 04:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857697#Comment_119857697

Not at all.

A border poll under the GFA has to be conducted at the same time in both jurisdictions and only if both vote in favour is it considered passed.

If it is not passed, another border poll cannot be held for at least 7 years.

So a referendum in Ireland that voted for a united Ireland would oblige us to form a united Ireland if NI voted for a united Ireland.

We would not be railroaded in any way. We would have accepted by dint of voting for it.

The alternative case would be like the referendum to abolish the Senate. It was lost, but if it was passed, there would be no Senate - gone.

FrancieBrady · 10-11-2022 04:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857780#Comment_119857780

Varadkar and Martin will be out of the picture.

A leader of FF or FG campaigning against a UI is hard to imagine. Not a hope that they would take that risk.

Chips Lovell · 10-11-2022 04:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857782#Comment_119857782

No, it does not state that. It says: "it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland".

Elsewhere in the agreement it states, "the Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order".

The secretary of state can call a poll in Northern Ireland only. It does not oblige us to call a concurrent poll. We only need to run concurrent polls to confirm a deal.

Chips Lovell · 10-11-2022 04:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857849#Comment_119857849

I didn't say they will campaign against a union. I said they'd pay lip service to it and campaign for a union that would stress the economic and political costs of that union (whilst still claiming to support it).

Larbre34 · 10-11-2022 04:39PM

Micheál Martin has set up the much Unionist criticised Shared Island unit in his department and Varadkar frequently speaks on the pros of a UI, including at the much Unionist criticised Ireland's Future forum.

I don't think you can expect either party to be found wanting in backing a UI when the demographic conditions are universally judged to be right.

Don't forget, the very worst thing that could happen is for a referendum to be held and be lost. The DUP types would make sure there wouldn't be another poll for 30 or 40 years.

FrancieBrady · 10-11-2022 04:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857872#Comment_119857872

For which they'd be called out. They'd be fooling nobody.

To be the party that delivers a UI? You seriously think they will not go for that baldheaded?

blanch152 · 10-11-2022 05:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857931#Comment_119857931

The ground is shifting. I recommend you read last weekend's interview with Martin very carefully.

FrancieBrady · 10-11-2022 05:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858049#Comment_119858049

Martin will be gone.

kippy · 10-11-2022 05:31PM

I think the reality is, the longer the current situation/status quo goes on the less likely there is ever to have a United Ireland.

It is my belief that as time goes on, younger generations grow up and the population in both jurisdictions get more diverse, the amount of people that actually care either way gets severely reduced reducing the chances of a poll on either side coming out with the result SF and others want.

10-11-2022 07:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856050#Comment_119856050

Not quite sure why you’re giving out to me about it? I was agreeing with you.

The Tories had no intention of running a proper referendum. They wanted a vague, indefinite and undefinable nonsense that gave them carte Blanche to do whatever they want.

It’s everything a referendum shouldn’t be - an open ended question.

It’s like signing a contract that you couldn’t possibly understand the consequences of because the clauses were entirely undefined.

I wouldn’t let the anywhere near defining referenda in reference to Northern Ireland.

FrancieBrady · 10-11-2022 07:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858601#Comment_119858601

I wasn't giving out to you. Just pointing to the use of the Brexit comparison that some think is an edgy one to make. We have never done a referendum the way Brexit got done.

Sam Russell · 10-11-2022 08:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857856#Comment_119857856

My understanding of that is that a border poll will only be called if it is hep north and south simultaneously. Otherwise it is meaningless.

The SoS for NI would obviously have to consult the Irish Gov - if only to make sure that the bp would pass both sides of the border.

Peregrinus · 11-11-2022 04:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858684#Comment_119858684

This is not what the GFA says.

A border poll in NI only is the start of the process. It's called by the SoS, and conducted in NI, and it must be called if it appears to the SoS that a majority in NI would vote to end partition. More than one border poll can be held, but not more than one every seven years. There's no reference anywhere here to anything at all being done in the Republic, or to the government of the Republic being involved in any way.

If the border poll passes then proposals for giving effect to reunification, agreed between the two government, have to be laid before the UK Parliament. (Why the UK Parliament? Because the GFA recognises UK as the sovereign power in NI. The UK will need to act in order to end partition - e.g. enacting legislation removing NI from the UK.)

Those proposals will have to include a mechanism by which the people of Ireland can democratically express consent, freely and concurrently, in both jurisdictions - the GFA requires this, as Chips points out.

The GFA doesn't say that consent in both jurisdictions must be expressed through a referendum — in theory, other democratic mechanisms could be considered. But a referendum will be necessary in the Republic, and for obvious reasons it's highly desireable that the same mechanism should be adopted in NI as in the Republic. There could, for example, be a referendum conducted North and South to adopt an appropriately modified version of Bunreacht na hÉireann as the constitution of (united) Ireland. Or it could be some other kind of referendum. But, realistically, I don't see unification being effected by any mechanism other than referendums conducted simultaneously in both jurisdictions. And the border poll contemplated by the GFA won't be the NI end of that referendum, because the border poll doesn't itself effect reunification; under the GFA it must be followed by the preparation and adoption of proposals for giving effect to the wish for reunification, which would be unnecessary if the border poll itself had given effect to them.

retalivity · 11-11-2022 08:46AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858115#Comment_119858115

This.

If a referendum was called today in the reoublic, with a straight yes/no to "do you support a united Ireland?", i hinestly think there would be a sizeable minority, at least 30% or more that would vote no. And not for any religious or unionist reason, purely for economics or just indifference. A lot of people dont care for nationalism, and are far away from the border or have had no impact from it. Hitting them in the pocket would be of greater concern.

Fionn1952 · 11-11-2022 11:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858115#Comment_119858115

I think you're ignoring the reality here. The reality is that there has been a massive spanner thrown in the works of the status quo with Brexit. The current situation is the most unstable and tense in the last 20 years. With the NI border having more news headlines in the last few years than all the previous post GFA ones and the UK heading for it's longest recession on record, any talk of the status quo is pretty blind.

FrancieBrady · 11-11-2022 12:01PM

Oh my, Eoghan Harris (yes Eoghan Harris!) drafted in by the Newsletter to big up Jeffrey.

Sam Russell · 11-11-2022 12:05PM

TLDR

Just the highlighted bit - I think a blowback by Unionism is not a good thing. Blowbacks are usually a disaster.

kippy · 11-11-2022 12:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860764#Comment_119860764

That's part of the status quo right now.

Very few people in the south really care either way and looking at the financial implications of a United Ireland, would run a mile from same.

Brexit may be the catalyst for the ultimate demise of the Union but not necessarily the cause of a United Ireland.

Fionn1952 · 11-11-2022 01:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861075#Comment_119861075

Considering the regularly changing nature of things with regards to Brexit and the NI Protocol, I think it's a pretty big stretch to describe it as the status quo, particularly in comparison to the much more stable 20 years that preceded it.

Folk are always very certain that their opinion reflects that of the majority; polling suggests that your statement about very few people caring is not correct. Whether people care enough to accept the consequences is debatable, but claiming that, 'very few people really care' is obvious hyperbole.

Sam Russell · 11-11-2022 02:39PM

Just look at the numbers that voted for the GFA in Ireland - 95% if I remember correctly - 75% in NI.

Whatever was on offer, it would be accepted by at least 60%, and 95% if it was a fair deal.

In NI, it might be very close, but would carry if there was a reasonable deal for NI. If there were guaranties for a British identity, continuance of British funding, PSNI continuance, NHS, etc., then it would have a better chance. The economic consequences would matter more for NI.

Sam Russell · 11-11-2022 02:44PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/11/11/biometric-data-requirement-on-way-under-british-government-immigration-laws/

So a Polish plumber going north would need a biometric passport to cross the non-existent border from Lifford into Strabane to get his cheap vodka.

That is going to get interesting.

serfboard · 11-11-2022 10:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861660#Comment_119861660

"Non-Irish EU citizens crossing the Border into the North will be required to submit biometric facial and fingerprint data under the UK government’s new immigration laws." Submit it to who? Where?

As with many other Brexity developements, this one too was dreamed up without taking the Irish Non-Border into consideration. Completely unenforceable.

Sam Russell · 12-11-2022 12:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119863405#Comment_119863405

You would think so.

Some people affected by this might be easy to recognise because they are 'different'.

The rules may not apply to them, but they could be singled out because of the obvious non-Irish appearance, basically the racial appearance.

It just takes a nut job PNSI officer .....

Peregrinus · 12-11-2022 04:25AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861660#Comment_119861660

They'll avoid it getting interesting by just not enforcing it.

There'll be no checks on people crossing the border. The UK will be relying on in-country checks to identify EU citizens who don't have leave to be there, but you won't encounter any in-country checks unless you try to register to vote, rent a flat, take a job, enroll your child in school, that kind of thing. Chances of someone entering NI for tourism purposes being affected by this are negligible.

It will still have an effect, though - e.g. tour companies will be aware that if they market all-Ireland tours, they need to ensure their customers have leave to be in the UK, that kind of thing. And some of them will respond by just not operating all-Ireland tours, if they think that having to comply with even smoothly-operated migrations processes will be a deterrent in a market which expects to be wholly free of them.

FrancieBrady · 15-11-2022 09:01AM

This sounds like yet another shrill 'that pesky Protocol' spoof more than anything. Have they heard of computers among the legal team?

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2022-11-14/legal-documents-for-protocol-challenge-retained-by-customs-officials

FrancieBrady · 15-11-2022 07:37PM

This is obscene really. Downright lies and massaging of figures. Joins the DUP intelling porkies.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1592539255355867136

pixelburp · 15-11-2022 08:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875993#Comment_119875993

A lot of legal documents would still be moved by courier and post AFAIK, though open to correction. Does of course underline the farce of Brexit that papers are held up in customs - though I doubt the people behind the Challenge would appreciate the humour.

retalivity · 15-11-2022 11:44PM

This is hilarious, proud loyal orangemen are getting Irish passports so they can get their foreign brides into the country. Add this to the Brexit benefit list!

https://mobile.twitter.com/BelTel/status/1592419451064188929

For Knob and Ulster

blanch152 · 16-11-2022 04:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119864229#Comment_119864229

Isn't it in fact ESTAs without the border control?

Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

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