Russia - threadbanned users in OP
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Fairly balanced assessment ,
But I don't see how it's a fairly defenseable position the main russian road supply routes are all in occupied territory of Ukraine,if the Ukrainans make a sudden push for meltipol that's thousands of Russian forces tied cut off from supplies and support and re forcement ,but that in turn cuts the road supply routes to Crimea,the same also applies to Mariupol,cut one or both off their is no roads to support or supply Crimea,the kirsch bridge is off line until July at least and that's only if it isn't hit multiple times over again,
Crimea is in very procarious position,if Russia has any sense they would evacuate as much of the population as possible back to the mainland, Russia can't hold Crimea indefinitely they know this , essentially the newly planted population must be thinking were about to be cut off from escape with the Ukrainans seeing the crown jewels ready for the taking
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Aye I agree with all that, my point was if they can maintain logistical supply routes (road/rail or sea) they'll hold it, if they can't they won't.
But, in terms of Ukraine rolling into Crimea, it is very defensible as there are natural choke points that would be very costly to traverse. The Isthmus of Perekop (1) is a funnel and other than that you are looking at using a bridge (2) which likely won't last another week or two, or an amphibious assault.
As I said, I hope Ukraine do take Crimea, would fk'ing love to see it, I'm just not seeing how its a realistic possibility without insane loss of life.
Now they could close the Melitopol gap (3) and just keep hitting the Kerch bridge (4).
That would kill the road & rail supply routes, leaving only sea & air routes, which Russia is terrified to use and not practical (air supply routes) for a lot of supplies. If the Ukranians can do that, who knows, maybe the Russians would withdraw, but here's the issue with that scenario.....how would they withdraw if the land routes and sea routes are closed to them and air travel is unsafe too?
Like Kherson, there has to be a way out otherwise you'd be left hoping for them to surrender, which I don't see as a realistic possibility for an area of that size with the amount of personnel that would be there.
But I could be wrong. Same as everyone, I'm just guessing based on the info I have.
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Yes that region has been relatively static recently. It would be absolutely fantastic if they could get to Starobilsk as that's a real hub and would cut off some supply routes to the likes of Luhansk city and Sieverodonestk. it's outside of the area that has been recently fortified by the Russians too.
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It would be absolutely fantastic if they could get to Starobilsk as that's a real hub and would cut off some supply routes to the likes of Luhansk city and Sieverodonestk.
I'm not sure thats true. It would cut off one route, yes, but there are still a lot of options for supplying those cities. For Severodonetsk, as an example, the route in red would be cut off, but the blue routes are still viable
Its a detour, absolutely, but still viable considering the majority of the detour is within the Russian borders.
Or is there something I'm missing?
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