Russia - threadbanned users in OP

What scrutiny? Yours?

That was 6 weeks ago, I get a sense things have really picked up in the last week - 60 tik tokkers in their Barracks one day, and 200 Wagner group wiped out the next via close order battles in their own base of operations.

I am inclined to believe the figures that the US and UK give. They had the Russian casualties number at 80k (killed, wounded, captured, missing). This number is out of date, we're probably looking at a number north of 100k now.

I don't see them making much inroads in Kherson in the next few weeks myself. Hopefully I'm wrong. Svatove though could and should be under siege from the Ukrainians within a few days.

Hearing so many mixed messages about Kherson but yeah it seems like that's going to be a tough slog. The guys on the War on the Rocks podcast have just visited Ukraine and that's the sense that they had about it.

Is there any possibility liquidated is losing something in translation and refers to all killed and captured / wounded and captive in Ukraine?

The problem, you are dealing with a dog in the manger attitude, or rather dogs in the Kremlin. When they can't have Ukraine, they deny everyone else. That's why the nuclear weapons question keeps coming up. Even if the Ukrainians can militarily force the Russians back to the positions on February 23rd, that's not the end of it, for that to happen the Kremlin has to fall or the Ukrainians will not be able to rebuild, the Russian security apparatus will lick their wounds, apply lessons, re-establish control and come back again.

The demand is "The Russians need to withdraw from Ukraine". If that happens today what then? There is no line of sight to an off ramp for the Kremlin (by that I mean the Silioviki). There is no evidence that the Russian population is going to turn on them bar a significant military defeat whereby the security state loses the will to power, therefore as long as the military have access to resources they will keep going. Who is going to march on Moscow?

At present the Russians are destroying the electrical and water infrastructure across Ukraine. Limiting electricity makes it harder to move trains and soldiers and it also limits military intelligence gathering, fuel and food distribution (Diesel supply is constrained). The Russians are laying the ground work (from their point of view) for an attack on a NATO country infrastructure (specifically Britain). Their current actions on the ground are establish lines they can hold over Winter and use the time to train up the reinforcements before launching a major attack in the Spring. For that to succeed they somehow need to stymie NATOs intelligence gathering to give themselves time to establish control of the battle space.

The Spring fighting will be bloody and if it fails the Siloviki will turn on each other, indications are they are already at each other throats. If however, it succeeds NATO countries will marshall their forces and directly engage the Russians i.e. the war will expand further.

I am surprised this seems to hardly have raised an eyebrow. Ukrainian special ops blew up 4 helicopters at a millitary airbase in Pskov - 839 km from Kyiv, deep inside Russian territory.

This and other incidents likely prompted this assessment:

Nov 1, 2022 - Press ISW

I have seen video evidence that some are - those fortunate enough to be captured by Ukrainian forces after being left to die by their fellow Orcs.

So what modern conflict (apart from Iraq/Afghanistan) has a 10:1 or 17:1 ratio?

I don't quite understand the reasoning for not giving the Ukrainians the capacity to effectively target Russian infrastructure in kind. Bringing the war to their soil, imposing cost on the population and disruption of everyday life is an essential aspect of winning a conflict. Why should Russian be given free reign to leave Ukrainian infrastructure in ruins without suffering the same? See how the Muscovites enjoy a winter without power.

Ukraine systematically hits targets inside Russia = Russia is "being invaded by NATO/US"

That's how it would be spun, and would be a huge propaganda boost for the Kremlin. It would turn an unnecessary "operation" into a necessary war for them overnight.

@grumpyperson "Stop the war and use diplomacy."

'Diplomacy' is not a magic word that solves things effortlessly. What do you mean by diplomacy? Talks? About what? You need to explain what they are going to talk about.

This is not good news if its the dam.

Hopefully it's some ammo dump.

The increase in Russian casualties could be a result of the mobilized cannon fodder being pushed to the front lines, with bad equipment and Russian soldiers preventing them from retreating.

Attacking in turn a electrical and communications nodes should be a component of degrading Russia's capacity to wage war. It's standard practice for the US for example.

I don't buy the argument that it's dangerously escalatory, the genocidal rhetoric from Russia is fairly stark in it's goals. The WW2 comparison falls flat imo, as there's a clear difference between indiscriminate bombing of civilians and targeted destruction of critical infrastructure. This is already a total war scenario for Ukraine, why should Russian be given the sole authority for dictating the terms of combat?