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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    +1

    All bets are off the second Russian cities are targeted. Ukraine are winning the war and will retake their land eventually. Calling for bombing of Russian cities is the height of stupidity at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Looks like missles launched this morning came from the black sea and across Moldova,a bit a change using Moldova for cover rather than Belarus




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,097 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @EOQRTL

    I doubt it if Belarus attacks. Isn't their pet dictator struggling with his own internal problems? Suddenly sending his army off to fight (by now) battle seasoned veterans right on the cusp of winter could destabilise his own country. Especially if it goes badly. They'd suddenly be on the same economic blacklist as Russia. And what kind of contribution could they hope to make?

    Yes, Lukashenko knows that he can't really commit a load of Belarusian troops to a failing war effort without severely undermining his own political position. He really had to fight to hang on to power the last time he was challenged and that was in peace time.

    The problem is that if Putin really leans on Lackey Lukashenko for hard military support, Lukashenko can't really afford to say no lest Putin decides to stop help propping up Lukashenko in Belarus. Then again, could Putin afford to lose sway over Belarus by having Lukashenko ousted? Interesting quandary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    It only life was that simple. I suppose you've no sympathy for western civilians presently in Afghanistan either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I used the phrase 'awfulness'; I'm clearly not trying to suggest that civilian deaths are somehow good. Somehow inferring otherwise is simply poor comprehension on your part.

    What I am trying to communicate is what is happening strategically. And Russia is losing on all strategic measures in this war. Indeed they had lost strategically before the first tank crossed the border back in February.

    It's hard to keep strategic perspective in our always-on world today. Our eyes are drawn to the latest tweet but in the overall strategic picture, individual events are of themselves of little importance. It's the sum of the whole that we need to be always aware of. And that whole picture indicates total, crushing strategic defeat for Russia.

    If you think I'm spoofing by the way, I attached a short post I wrote here on 27-Feb on the strategic disaster for Russia that this war represents.



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  • Posts: 391 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I am getting more and more gloomy.

    Let's say that Putin calls his troops home tomorrow; he would just take the opportunity to reorganize his military, and bide his time to build up more arms and we'd be in a worse position overall.

    Let's say Putin is ousted tomorrow; I am virtually certain that he would be replaced by someone even more hardline, who would double down. There is no popular, liberal opposition leader waiting in the wings to take over.

    Let's say we stay in the current situation for the next few years -- at what point does a mistake get made and a strike - accidental or otherwise - is made on NATO territory or infrastructure, leading to escalation?

    Let's say the Russian people revolt in the streets and Russia descends into anarchy. I can think of nothing worse - a fragmented, embittered territory ruled by thugs and warlords loaded with thousands of nukes.

    Let's say China makes a move on Taiwan in 2023 or 2024, while the war in Ukraine goes on. How is it anything other than WW3 in that scenario?

    Let's say Biden - who's doing well so far - dies of old age tomorrow: is Kamala Harris the person we want pondering options to avoid a global war? Is Liz Truss? Russia has a terrible leader, and so do we - albeit in a different way.

    I think Pandora's box is open and there's no shutting it. I'll say it again: the alarmism over climate change in the west is misplaced. The nuclear threat is our 'great filter'. The risk of their use is not zero; as the years and decades go by, you add up all those miniscule chances of a nuclear exchange and you eventually reach a probability of 1. Egomaniacal men have brought ruin and devastation throughout history. We are part of history and the times we live in are historic, and not in a good way.

    In the late 1940s Bertrand Russell briefly argued that the western powers should preemptively strike the USSR (before the USSR developed their own nuclear arsenal). He said it would be genocide and murder against Russia, but having lived through WW1 and WW2, he felt sure that it would be preferable to a nuclear third world war. Today, even if it were possible to neutralize every Russian nuke and the west launched a barrage against targets in the Russia, to knock them out forever and end Russia as a state, you'd still be left with the menace of China.

    I think humanity might well be screwed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Until Russia relises there is sever consequences for their attacks they will keep coming,you can't realistically fight a war with one hand tied behind your back while some else sits there at your table Telling you,if you hit them we withdraw out supports,

    Sooner or later the Ukrainans will say sorry we are going to hit them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,337 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Lukashenko being monumentally stupid enough to send troops across the border may not be the worst outcome for Ukraine.

    There is 3% support for the war in Belarus with a sizeable underground opposition.

    Their soldiers have never fired a shot in anger, apart from at protestors.

    Belarus getting out from under the thumb of the Kremlin would be a monumental calamity for Puttin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭josip


    ...

    Post edited by josip on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    You don't think it means anything at this stage of the war, with Russia's fortunes at such a low ebb ? The Kremlin can dress it up in any language they want but to me it looks like they're digging deep for manpower...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Likely trying to evade any air defenses protecting from attacks coming from the coast



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Horrible stuff from the Russian terrorists.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    No, they won't. You're wrong.

    Let's face it, if that was their decision, they would have done it long before now. They haven't done this - which is 100% the correct decision. They are thinking strategically.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11



    Moldova: Russian missiles that targeted Ukraine crossed our airspace

    Moldova Russian enclave becoming a factor?

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    He's managed not to get drawn in directly thus far. Obviously there's been plenty of indirect support.

    This indicates a certain ape-like cunning on his part and I doubt that ape-brain of his will ever commit to direct support. Like a previous point, if he was going to commit to this, he would have done it long before now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Unfortunately Moldova can't do feck all about it,I'd expect attacks to increase coming through their airspace along with Belarus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    When the reports first leaked about Belarus joining the war last month the reported number was 100k troops:

    https://twitter.com/pavellatushka/status/1575450978685444104?s=46&t=vkFaqGeDPolY50D0WiRr9g



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Biden/Truss/Macron etc.. will decide how Ukraine is conducting this war. The moment the Ukrainian's decide they have had enough of taking command from the west is the moment the flow of weapons and intelligence dries up. It's what Putin is hoping for and those stupid enough to suggest attacks on Russian cities are playing right into his hands, in effect they are doing exactly what Putin wants.



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  • Posts: 1,886 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    its like Liz truss saying the uk were a little too generous drawing up partition



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,097 ✭✭✭✭briany


    "On the historical unity of British and Irish people"

    by Jacob Rees Mogg

    "I am confident that the true sovereignty of Ireland is possible only in partnership with the United Kingdom..."

    Absolute ructions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    No interest in Twitter links sorry.

    I try and get my news from verifiable outlets and sources. Personally i don't think Lukashenko is stupid enough but let's see.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,012 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Emabssies can provide almost no assistance to foreign nationals in trouble. This falacy needs to be retired. Foreign nationals that haven't got the sense to leave Russia before now are stupid and have made their bed and can lie in it

    That is about as wrongheaded an argument as you can get. Ukraine is an ideal proving ground and only a very stupid country would want to be relying on systems that they think won't work. Better to have someone else find out now than yourself at some other time when it's too late to fix or replace.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭zv2


    That is a contradiction in terms. Political cognitive dissonance.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭zv2


    It seems to me that part of Putin's strategy is to shock the western world by indiscriminate targeting of civilians. Putin is driven by hatred.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,551 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    I suppose even if Belarus mobilised their army and sent them towards their border with Ukraine but let them sit there Ukraine would have to reposition a good few more troops and equipment up there that are been used against Russian forces. So even if Belarus did nothing but that it would help Russia as Ukrainian forces would be moved from the fight against Russia to be deployed up near Belarus border so in that case less Ukraine troops on the front lines against Russia even if it was only for a few days/weeks it would help Russia out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    I wonder will we see that bridge severed for good in the weeks ahead ? You get a sense the attack on it has caused much worry and has highlighted how vulnerable Russia-controlled Crimea really is...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,225 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    It's a response as lame as an ashtray on a motorbike.

    Even if diplomats are not expelled from the Russian embassy here and lets face it it's a base for espionage for the terrorists. It's time to cut electricity and water supplies to the den.

    Going on reports. The number of Irish people in Russia has decreased since before 2014 but the number of Russians here has increased.

    Even some taking it upon themselves to inspect the infrastructure.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭cheese sandwich


    I think describing Putin’s actions as ‘strategy’ are probably suggesting they are more thought out than they really are at this stage.

    He’s a badger cornered in a hole now, angrily lashing out and hoping things will turn around for him



This discussion has been closed.
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