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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,194 ✭✭✭✭briany


    That would be classic Putin paranoia. I think that if generals wanted to unseat Putin, the factors would already be in place. The exposure of his army as a paper tiger (relatively speaking) and increasing isolation from the rest of the world ought to be enough.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    As I said a few pages back, Ukraine definitely would have needed external help, especially to time it exactly as the train was going by.

    It wouldn't be the worst idea for Ukraine to outright deny it was them and to create paranoia.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,989 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran



    No, but I wouldn't underestimate the ability to repair a bridge if they really want to. I am reminded as to how long it took to repair the Oakland Maze bridge after the fire and collapse (One bridge fell onto another bridge). Initial estimates using normal processes were a month just to clean up the mess, and more months to fix it. By saying "Sod the money, get it fixed now" because of how critical it was to get the bridges running again, the job was completed in less than a month.



    I can think of two obvious ones and one less obvious one.

    1) Soviet Union, 1940. The Soviets got their asses kicked by Finland in the Winter War. They eventually made it, but it was a wake-up call to the Red Army. They immediately started reforms. By the time the Germans had attacked in 1941, the reforms were well under way, but not yet truly effective. However, the Germans had been lured into thinking the Russians were easy pickings by how badly they had performed the year prior. It wasn't just German error which led to their defeat at Moscow, the Soviets did good too. Reforms continued for the next couple of years, and by the end of the war the Soviets were as competent and dangerous as any military on the planet. This is the example which worries me, as the longer this Ukraine thing goes on, the longer the Russians have to stop being idiots and start properly addressing their failings. I will say that they have been adapting on the tactical level, they aren't all unmotivated idiots at the front line. When this happens at the national level, the Ukrainians will be in trouble a few months after that.

    2) US Army, 1940. Starting with an army smaller than that of Romania, with generally poor equipment, not having conducted a major exercise in nearly two decades, and decidedly questionable reserves, within two years was conducting offensive expeditionary warfare on two continents. Even the famous defeat at Kasserine late 1942 demonstrated capability, as the Germans were also defeated in their operation. The US didn't look back after that. How the US managed that is a case study in national mobilisation and military reconfiguration/retraining which I doubt will ever be equalled.

    3) US Army, 1980. Coming out of the Vietnam war, the US Army was of low morale and relatively unprofessional and ill-disciplined. Dangerous, yes, but not what you would expect of a superpower. A determined effort to 'professionalize' the Army as it returned to an all-volunteer force combined with an equipment rejuvenation resulted in the most overwhelming army on the planet as demonstrated ten years later.

    The Ukrainian turnaround since 2014 has certainly been impressive, but don't overstate it. They are not to the standards of a modern NATO force and it's something of an exponential scale. Going from 'incompetent' to 'adequate' is much easier than going from 'adequate' to 'good', and going from 'good' to 'excellent' is extremely different. I feel like the European observers did in the American civil war, from their perspective they were watching amateurs fight incompetents.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,442 ✭✭✭bad2thebone


    I haven't seen anyone support him either now that you say it.

    I'm a concerned observer, like I don't like the idea of Zelensky suggesting a pre emptive strike before Putin. I don't like Putin suggesting nukes...call a spade a spade.

    Some posters in this thread remind me of Celtic supporter's giving out about a referee's rightful decision to red card a Celtic player for fouling, but being delighted when one of their player's fouls and gets away with it.

    Or like someone giving it to a Christian about violence in the new testament, then the loving Christian trying to explain that the suggestion of killing slave's and making them submit to their masters and turn the other cheek was misinterpreted.

    Turn a blind eye to injustice or absolute insanity.

    Just because Putin hasn't made unpopular decisions, doesn't mean that Zelensky hasn't learned to keep stump either.

    Suggesting that NATO preemptively fire off a rocket into Russia for him, is just madness.

    Mind you, a lot of fear is circulating in the Ukraine which is justifiable. But giving doomsday suggestions to NATO could back fire. NATO could say, hold on a minute we're helping you out here. Don't push it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 662 ✭✭✭Private Joker



    Haven't seen this anywhere else so I'm unsure of the source.

    If its true there's a lot going on I. The kremlin today



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    This guy and commenters underneath rightly pointing out that reopening the bridge to traffic a few hours after a quite massive explosion and without doing a detailed structural assessment by engineers for its safety is utterly nuts.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,551 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    It's on a few reddit threads but at present, caution advised.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,194 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @Manic Moran

    1) Soviet Union, 1940. The Soviets got their asses kicked by Finland in the Winter War. They eventually made it, but it was a wake-up call to the Red Army. They immediately started reforms. By the time the Germans had attacked in 1941, the reforms were well under way, but not yet truly effective. However, the Germans had been lured into thinking the Russians were easy pickings by how badly they had performed the year prior. It wasn't just German error which led to their defeat at Moscow, the Soviets did good too. Reforms continued for the next couple of years, and by the end of the war the Soviets were as competent and dangerous as any military on the planet. This is the example which worries me, as the longer this Ukraine thing goes on, the longer the Russians have to stop being idiots and start properly addressing their failings. I will say that they have been adapting on the tactical level, they aren't all unmotivated idiots at the front line. When this happens at the national level, the Ukrainians will be in trouble a few months after that.

    One thing is that in WW2, the Russians were fighting for the very existence of their state if not their people. That's going to give a hell of a lot of motivation to really fight. Can the same be said today?

    The other thing is that the Ukrainian army continues to get NATO-level training and support. Russia may adapt, but Ukraine can adapt also.

    Soviet military reforms were no doubt helped by the total war footing that Nazi invasion forced the USSR into, putting a huge amount of its industry into that effort. It's hard to see the Russians of today putting that kind of effort into conquering Ukraine. They need the right tools of war to effectively wage war.

    Up until such time as Russia agree to withdraw from Ukraine, I think we're going to hear various iterations of, "Ah, but they haven't really got going yet."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,504 ✭✭✭zv2


    Could have something to do with sabotage - see my previous post ^

    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,655 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Undamaged lane(s). They mean the bit on the right that's not sagging as much?


    20221008_162807.jpg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,613 ✭✭✭rogber




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    Re: the bridge part.

    I have this feeling that its a bit trickier to fix the bridge in the middle of the sea, compared to the road with easier logistics, 24/7 non-stop shift work, etc.

    Not sure the russkies can just "sod the money and fix it now"



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,989 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    The Soviets were not fighting for their existence at the time that they started their 'lessons learned' reforms after Finland, and whether or not troops will fight on the ground is a different matter from the organizational and institutional changes which are within Moscow's control. Had those latter changes not been implemented, I doubt the motivation of the fighting soldier alone would have been enough in 1941. The French were fairly motivated in 1940, after all.



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    “Or like someone giving it to a Christian about violence in the new testament, then the loving Christian trying to explain that the suggestion of killing slave's and making them submit to their masters and turn the other cheek was misinterpreted.”

    Happy to discuss this rant in an appropriate forum. Send me a PM if you set it up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,638 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    It shouldn't be left to chance. Now that it's badly damaged, weakened and empty of traffic, the Ukrainians should inflict as much damage on the Bridges as possible, across the whole structure. Both the road and rail spans needs to be written off entirely until peacetime and future political conditions allow for a rebuild, if that is something Ukraine see as desirable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,234 ✭✭✭scotchy


    Looks like it could be the same as the Chinese coup last month.



    💙 💛 💙 💛 💙 💛



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,919 ✭✭✭GM228




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,194 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If the Ukrainians could inflict more damage on the bridge, I'm sure they would, especially if traffic across it is as crucial to supplying Kherson as people here are making out that it is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,613 ✭✭✭rogber


    And to think some of us get pilloried for daring to point out that sensational stories on twitter often turn out to be unreliable ...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,919 ✭✭✭GM228


    Oh look at the Netherlands Thierry Baudet what a plonker:-

    I think Thierry Baudet must be a dutch translation for either Clare Daly or Mick Wallace.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,919 ✭✭✭GM228


    Moscow is about two hours ahead of us, but should it not be still bright there when that was posted?


    Edit: Perhaps not having looked at a live cam.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Your on a bit roll today....






    One of the worse analogies we've seen in here,and we've seen some out there posts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    In fairness, a clip of one junction in a city of 12m does not prove anything



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,194 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Well, those reforms will be great for the next time Russia gets invaded which, given their nuclear arsenal, will be approximately never. Ukraine have the motivation and they have been getting the training and the tech. Russia lack the first and are behind on the second. Given their attempt to shell their way across the Donbas and now this partial mobilisation, it seems like brute force is their natural inclination. Unless Russia can procure the raw materials of war and keep their economy somewhat afloat while also giving their soldiers a decent reason to fight, I don't see how reforms will help them that much in the current phase of the conflict.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,220 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You lack perspective of the early days on this thread:

    Freedom for the ethnic Russian minorities in Ukraine.

    A great day comrades we sail into history.



    Failure to see things from Russia's perspective has gotten us into this situation. In fact, I would actually describe it as complete disregard for their wishes in the region.

    The west has treated Russia as if they had zero power anymore. And their wishes were basically irrelevant.

    But as we can clearly see, this is not true. Realistically, Russia were never going to go quietly into the night and accept western domination in their backyard.

    And so on ad nauseam.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I'm seeing quite a few structural engineers on social media saying that the bridge is in no way ready to be reopened to traffic, even from just a cursory glance at it (despite anything the Putin dictatorship claims).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    Yep the road that is still in place has a very obvious dip next to the road that collapsed.

    Also the reports that the train had been moved also seem to be premature.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    If the fürer says it's safe then he must be telling the truth, until the bridge falls with the weight of vehicles going across



This discussion has been closed.
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