Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I don't think Putin is highly likely at all to use a tactical nuclear weapon. The threat is not zero, but it's not highly likely or even likely. But even if he did as I understand these things are not just lying on a shelf, it would require some reassembly which would take time and one would Imagine or hope be flagged by intelligence before it became operational.

But even if he did manage to there would be several scenarios of how one would be deployed. Ranging from a show of force with high altitude detonation, to nuking some remote outpost, to launching one at a highly densely populated area.

Obviously the response would depend on what he did, but it certainly wouldn't be inevitable that nukes start criss crossing the planet.

The reality is all the fringe players who stayed out of it more or less, big and small would see it as catastrophic escalation, South America, Africa, Asia, China would all be forced to pick a side. NATO could go down the political option, or actually strike back, as in implement a no fly zone, or sink the Black Sea fleet. Or if they deem it was a direct attack on NATO because of radiation drift or whatever, they could launch a tactical nuke themselves, probably not at the Russian mainland, but an ally like Belarus.

I mean we are talking about the worlds economy collapsing pretty much immediately and every country going to war footing, probably even the States activating DEFCON 1.

Unless the botox and isolation of the pandemic has completely melted Puttins brain, he knows this too. It would be the absolute end of him.

He would also be wise to learn from something he said in his "speech" today, The yanks were the last ones to do it, they will only bend so far before they bite back.

Nahh someone missed the heads on sticks, castrations and dead children....

Thread is moving too fast. Please restrict yourself to 1 post every 15 minutes in this time of crisis.

looking at that victory parade in Moscow I cant help but hark back to the Hilter's parades in Munich "The Night of the Amazons" 

Only 68 more of those proverbs left to use :)

I'm not so sure. The 20 to 30 ships and subs in the Black Sea would immediately be wiped out within an hour or so. Given the amount of intelligence gathering in the area, and the constant readiness of strike groups, I'd confidently say that NATO'S conventional reaction would be mind-bendingly swift and devastating.

Of course, Putin and certainly his Generals know this. Would he be prepared to send thousands of sailors to the seabed?

And Canada's 12 points go to ....... Ukraine

That puts Ukraine in the lead ...... the Belorussian contestant doesn't look happy at all...

What kinda agreement do you think will stop all of this .

I find the whole situation baffling. Some people are still saying he'd never use even a tactical nuclear weapon but he's backed himself into an absolute corner now.

If he'd withdrawn Russian forces earlier and fed the country a big spoon of propaganda, like the special operation to "liberate" couldn't win because the might of NATO and the US were behind Ukraine, and he had to prioritize Russian lives, he'd at least hold onto power even though his personal legacy would be ruined.

By continuously escalating he's left himself very little options. I don't know how we could say he'd never use a tactical nuke when the man's just signed a decree annexing territories which are not only unstable, but in which Ukraine is making active inroads and only getting stronger.

To the Russian spectator who buys into the new glorious greater Russia, Ukraine will now be conquering Russia itself. Putin knows this, of course.

So he's either totally naive as to how well his army can hold the line indefinitely against a Ukraine that'll only get stronger as the Russian army and economy gets utterly ravaged, or he's ready to take the ultimate gamble and escalate even further.

It's hard to believe it's the first one. Equally it's hard to see how he could think the second option would bring anything other than the absolute destruction of Russia, literally on the battlefield, and in the wider sense in terms of the countrys economy and international standing.

It is baffling. It's impossible to know what his playbook is at this stage.

In that case, i'll ring the Orc embassy on Monday and offer them Ireland in exchange for getting out of Ukraine 2012.

I'll get there ;)