Russia - threadbanned users in OP

jmreire · 17-09-2022 08:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631975#Comment_119631975

I believe in letting Ukraine make any decision's regarding recovering their territory, and they have said Crimea is part and parcel of that territory, which was illegally annexed. For the last 8 mths, what do you think Russia has been doing, except setting the occupied ( and beyond) territory's ablaze? They are going to do worse than they have already been doing all along? Nuclear maybe?? No, I wouldn't think so.

Yurt2 · 17-09-2022 08:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632004#Comment_119632004

I'm presuming you're speaking about Declan Ganley. Not in the least, the man is wildly against Russia in this war. He did work in Russia in the aftermath of the Soviet Union collapsing from what I know. He was sent as a young man from a City of London institution to cut deals on resources.

In fact, the conspiracy at the time of the referendum was that he was in the pay of the Americans (I believe he holds US citizenship and has business interests with the American military with the provisioning of secure communications equipment).

Highly unlikely to be true, just a rich guy making his convictions (however boneheaded they were) known.

Rawr · 17-09-2022 09:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631692#Comment_119631692

I feel that Belarus has the potential of having a EuroMaidan of its own and follow in Ukraine’s footsteps. There appears to be at least some sections of society there who want rid of their Kremlin toadie dictatorship, but alas have been beaten down by the state.

I feel that Russian defeat in Ukraine might accelerate the process of change there.

Right now, officially Belarus forms a “Union State” with Russia, which kind of smacks of them trying to revive the USSR, but isn’t really anything at all beyond a concept. Unofficially, Belarus might as well be regarded as subject “Republic” of the Russian Federation. I hope for Belarus to get away from Moscow and their nonsense.

Rawr · 17-09-2022 09:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631809#Comment_119631809

Hmm…reports of gunfire in the city according to liveUAmap.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-september-shots-audible-in-several-districts-of-kherson

Could just be shenanigans with the locally positioned Russian troops. Would be excellent news if the Ukrainians are already in the town…but my gut says no…

Rawr · 17-09-2022 09:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631998#Comment_119631998

Scratch my previous post…that looked like they were firing at something down the street. Could it really be a push for the city? Might be some interesting news in the morning.

zv2 · 17-09-2022 09:15PM

Another vid of Kherson

https://twitter.com/LavenouSolange/status/1571227105001627648?s=20&t=VgEMEM2t2IHV5s7Qoghyzg

Yurt2 · 17-09-2022 09:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632086#Comment_119632086

Does look like the battle to retake the city is underway. Godspeed to the Ukrainian army tonight, light 'em up.

Francie Barrett · 17-09-2022 09:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630986#Comment_119630986

You clearly didn't get the memo. boards.ie best wishes are an effective counter measure that will take any Iranian drone out of the sky instantly 😶

Iranian drones are recorded at taking out a Patriot missile defence system. They are nothing to be looked down on or made fun of.

I would also like to remind people made a mockery of Turkish drones when they first came out. I don't think the crew of the Moskva or the Armenians are laughing too much at TB-2 right now.

17-09-2022 09:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631996#Comment_119631996

He should Hop it 😀

Kermit.de.frog · 17-09-2022 09:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632058#Comment_119632058

Ukranian forces are still over 23km from the city earlier today apparently so seems highly unlikely they've broken that distance.

Rawr · 17-09-2022 09:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632093#Comment_119632093

Had a browse on Twitter for the 3 different videos that are up so far; current theories/rumours about them are:

It’s a staged propaganda shoot for the Russians (I doubt it)
It’s two Russian units fighting each other (not impossible, but I doubt it)
It’s a partisan unit rising against the Russians (there might be a chance of this)

Could be partisans, could be the main Ukrainian army, or both, or a partisans setting up the prelude for the main force. The fighting shown so far is pretty chaotic, which feels like the Russians have been taking by surprise. That might lend weight to the idea of partisans attacking.

briany · 17-09-2022 09:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631975#Comment_119631975

Here's an article talking about Russian military doctrine,

According to Russia’s strategic documents on nuclear deterrence, Medvedev underlined that the country reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in four scenarios, two of which do not require it being attacked by nuclear forces from the outside. One of those is an attack on Russia’s critical infrastructure that will have paralyzed its nuclear deterrent forces. And the second would be an act of aggression committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardized the country’s existence itself by conventional weapons and forces. He emphasized that there should be no reason to doubt that Russia would be “ready to give a worthy response to any infringement on our country, or on its independence.”

So, an attack on Crimea would not paralyse Russia's ability to use its nuclear deterrent and it would not jeopardise Russia's existence either as the country of Russia would continue to exist without occupying Crimea. The last line of Russia giving a worthy response to any infringement on their country is probably the closest argument to saying Russia would use nukes on Ukraine. Medvedev uses the phrase 'worthy response' instead of nuclear strike, which says to me that he does not want to claim that Russia would use a nuclear weapon the moment he feels their territory has been infringed. In Russia's history as a nuclear power, its territorial integrity has been threatened before like in the Chechen Wars, but the Russian state did not jump straight to the nuclear button, preferring to solve that conflict with conventional force.

If Ukraine were able to push into Crimea and if Russia were to bring the nuclear threat, I think it would first happen as an ultimatum. Putin would publicly declare that Ukraine has x number of days to withdraw forces from Crimea or else face appropriate retaliation the likes of which they have never seen before. From there, NATO intelligence agencies would work beyond overtime to figure out exactly what this meant, and if it was found to be credible evidence of a nuclear strike on a Ukrainian city (not just an empty threat, in other words), Ukraine would be very sternly warned to pull back.

Nuclear weapons are almost by definition a last resort, given their destructive power and political taboo. Putin must know that using one would introduce the kind of chaos that he cannot predict would work out in his favour, possibly ending his career and life altogether, so for him to use one over Crimea would mark him out as very desperate indeed.

zv2 · 17-09-2022 09:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632093#Comment_119632093

Apparently, it was an SBU attack.

Gatling · 17-09-2022 09:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632099#Comment_119632099

They haven't a patch on Israeli or US drones .

The Moskva wasn't sank by drones

Gatling · 17-09-2022 09:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632137#Comment_119632137

They said the same about kharkiv

Say my name · 17-09-2022 10:14PM

Crimea is a nonsense.

The whole war is a nonsense.

The world recognises Crimea as part of Ukraine. It is part of Ukraine.

The same way the world recognised the Baltic states during all the time of the USSR. Russia didn't recognise them only till the breakup of the USSR and their independence in 1991. And even now in the last few years there's Russian MPs calling that decision wrong by an unconstitutional body. That was 1991.

Crimea has been part of Ukraine since 1954.

Bug off Russia and your imperialist Putin. The gallows or firing squad hopefully awaits ye.

17-09-2022 10:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632086#Comment_119632086

Could it be Partisans in Kherson?

17-09-2022 10:44PM

No doubt Ukraine have overwhelming support

The votes for letting Zelensky address the General Assembly debate next week by video speaks for itself

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1571047634051428355?s=20&t=7bW9PjXAwEnf1LBYE36avQ

Brussels Sprout · 17-09-2022 10:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631975#Comment_119631975

...

Brussels Sprout · 17-09-2022 11:08PM

If this is true then I'd imagine HIMARS will just target them immediately

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1571253089964810240

Francie Barrett · 17-09-2022 11:15PM

The latest Rybar map indicates some progress for Ukraine in Kherson, looks like the attempt to flood the Inhulets didn't help.

The northern most positions of the Russians look vulnerable. My guess is that we are going to see them pull back very soon.

Polar101 · 18-09-2022 12:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631701#Comment_119631701

Ukraine has attacked Crimea several times, but Russia couldn't do anything about it. Russia has threatened everyone with "the bomb" hundreds of times by now. Only Putin apologists still pretend they are actual threats.

Jinglejangle69 · 18-09-2022 12:44AM

When are these sanctions going to kick in?

Russia still able to buy and sell with rubbles.

Yurt2 · 18-09-2022 01:29AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632643#Comment_119632643

Russia can't buy anything of value without using an intermediary currency like the US dollar (or less often Eur) because the rouble is a trash currency that only has a synthetic notional value and can't be banked. No one wants it. If someone approached you in the street and offered to buy your coat for 1 thousand US dollars, or 2 thousand dollars in roubles at the notional exchange rate, which currency are you taking? Only the fool would take the roubles because you've basically sold your coat for monopoly money if you did.

They attempted a currency pairing with the likes of India as a middle finger to the sanctions, but the Indians quickly realised that for stability it needed to be dollar mediated, so basically it's all for show and is completely pointless.

Now, for those that are willing to trade with Russia, as above, transactions are 90 percent of the time dollar transactions. For the government, 60 percent of their foreign reserves are frozen offshore, and they are operating off surpluses from energy sales (again, the claim is that contracts are being realised in roubles is false, but it's a synthetic bit of financial alchemy, they are in fact eur/usd transactions in reality). Similarly, in the private sector, even if they could buy with the unfrozen foreign currency washing around their system, no one with anything worthwhile to sell will give them anything. There's a grey market for sure, but it ends up being hideously expensive for firms. Hello grotesque inflation on everyday consumer items far worse than anything in Europe.

They are running out of luck with oil, as they have been basically selling oil at a loss below benchmark prices and break-even prices and oil actually rather than gas is the big ticket item for Russia. Russia in an autocracy with a closed book national accounts system - they can say "all is well" but economists are now concluding that Russia is operating at a deficit. But Yurt! Don't all countries operate at a deficit? Well, Russia has an energy curse, for the last couple of decades they have not been particularly creditworthy, and their economy has been doped-up on energy sales, so they haven't had to go to the markets on rainy days. When energy sales go south nobody will lend to them because of sanctions. So they have to spunk their unfrozen domestic reserves on the war and in the expensive grey economy to get what they need to keep firms alive.

They also hold significant amounts of gold reserves. Great! Vladimir say. No, Vladimir, you've been liquidating your gold reserves on the war at too fast a pace and the price of gold is tanking (and smart money is going towards the US dollar).

In short, Russia is f*cked and the sanctions are working despite Tankies delusions. They'll be eating tree bark to survive this time next year if this keeps up.

Asdfgh2020 · 18-09-2022 01:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632004#Comment_119632004

That ‘Declan Ganley’ guy….?

Gatling · 18-09-2022 01:45AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631701#Comment_119631701

We heard similar about Poland, Latvia, Lithuanian, Estonia, Moldova, Romania , Georgia, East Germany.

But things change

Gatling · 18-09-2022 01:48AM

If Russia withdraws from Kherson, doesn't that mean all the predictions of Russia's 20,000 best professional soldiers dug in waiting for Ukrainians ,and the Ukrainans would face huge losses as a result are wrong

So much for expert opinions