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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Got carried away and had hoped against hope we'd see a total collapse of the Russian army and a sprint for the border the last few days. Looks like this may drag on into the winter now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Its believed Ukraine are operating two divisions of soldiers and equipment , which could be somewhere in the region of 50,000 men +armor, artillery and other supports and a third division been kept in reserve that's another possible 25,000 men and supports ,and the numbers of trained soldiers returning to Ukraine is increasing every few weeks .

    Russia can't replace its losses and no further troops being deployed to Ukraine suggests russia isn't able to stomach the losses they are suffering at the current rate of men and vehicles



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,222 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    If it gets to the point of Ukraine securing the rest of Ukraine and taking Crimea is a prospect, I think it highly likely that it will be a push-over and anything put a long drawn out bloody pitched battle.

    I don't care what your Russian acquantances or Russians think on the issue. It's like suggesting most Russians don't support Putin but have to put up with him anyway as anything else is suicide. If Ukraine re-take Crimea, hard cheese, old man, you shot your bolt when you invaded and started a relentless campign of chained war crimes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,222 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    It's taken them far too long, but they are nearly getting there:

    "Hungary is no longer a "full democracy" and the EU needs to do everything to bring it back into line with European values, the European Parliament said Thursday.

    MEPs voted 433 in favour, 123 against, to now describe Hungary -- ruled by populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who maintains close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin -- "a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" in "serious breach" of EU democratic norms." https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220915-european-parliament-says-hungary-is-no-longer-a-full-democracy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Most of us know it wasn't going to be over in a week



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Thanks for that. Out of curiosity how did you to come to learn Russian?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Winter hasn’t happened yet we are still in autumn.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    The land taken back was open plains not urban environments. It’s inevitably that when the fighting is in urban centres, whatever is left of them, that civilian casualties will mount.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    The problem isn’t driving into crimea it’s what’s there two meet them and even if the world don’t recognise the Russian claim Russia do and Putin knows how it went for Saddam and Gadaffi and he doesn’t strike me as the type to go down without taking thousands with him, soldier or civilians.

    At the end of the day I don’t think the west want a chaotic power grab in Russia. Cause it won’t be democratic



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    For the last few page's a few posters have been discussing Crimea. A note of my own to add. Russia for a long time has been redistributing humans in ways to serve a purpose. IE thousands of Russians been moved form one area to another. Since the Soviet days this has been on going. Now, if you put a settelment off 100000 Russians next door what do you suppose the Kremlin's thinking is their. Also, you now have Russia kidnapping countless Ukrainian people mainly young people and I am gussing girls and setting them down god knows where for god knows what. They too have a reason for that. Crimea is currently Ukrainian as far as I am concerned.

    Dan.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,222 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    In the last independent poll in Crimea prior to it's annexation, the majority were in favour of being part of Ukraine vs Russia. Trucked in votes since the annexation don't count, they can just truck off back whence they came.

    There isn't the faintest hint of democracy in Russia now, so non-argument.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,200 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If everyone respected international law and sovereign borders, military invasions would be virtually unheard of. When it comes to conflicts between nations, ability to use force and the practicalities of the situation at hand matter more, I think. At the end of the day, it's the ability to use force that gives currency to international law in the first place - these laws aren't really observed out of the goodness of nations' hearts so much as they can be enforced if needed.

    So, for Ukraine to go into Crimea, it must ask first if it can be done with acceptably low risk of a military disaster, and could it hold that territory. That's the ability to use force part of upholding international law. The practicality of it is what the strategic value of Crimea is to Ukraine at this point in time and how pushing into Crimea would cause Russia to respond. We've seen that support for the war as things stand is declining within Russia. More and more public officials there are openly voicing dissent about it. If Ukraine were able to push into Crimea, it would have to decide if such a move would further collapse Putin's support or if it would give him a surge in patriotic support, enabling to prolong the conflict with sweeping conscription and so on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,019 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Whatever territory Ukraine take they should ensure free & fair, monitored elections. There won't of been free votes in Crimea so we don't really know what the population want.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    And who gets to vote? People who were resident before 2014 or people resident now? If the later then you are just using democracy to facilitate colonialism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,222 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "Hand on heart, Zelensky watches Ukrainian flag rise over recaptured city

    Volodymyr Zelensky watched his country’s flag rise above the recaptured city of Izium on Wednesday, making a rare foray outside the capital that highlights Moscow’s embarrassing retreat from a Ukrainian counteroffensive."

    Zelensky heart flag..jpg

    They will prevail.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭zv2


    Stalin increased the percentage of Russian speakers in Donbas in the 50s. Well, you can't just move in a bunch of people and say 'this is ours'.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Posts: 4,503 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Useless fact: Donetsk was founded by a Welsh mining engineer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Not until they have derussafication first,

    Back in the 90s Russia tried to give away free Russian passports to people living in Crimea,they were rejected with over 90% of the population instead applying for Ukrainian passport,fast forward to 8 years ago and suddenly 110% of the population voted to rejoin Russia despite pretty much 48% of the population blocked from voting because they weren't Russian.

    Ukraine can never allow a large russian population to gain power anywhere in Ukraine or we are back to potential conflict and russian interference again



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    China appears to be getting grumpy at Putin over the Ukraine invasion. I wounder if China now knows its plans for Taiwan are now up in smoke.

    Dan.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭blarney_boy


    The problem with leaving the Russians in Crimea as the Ukrainians would tell you, is that it cuts off access from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea proper.

    The minute that Putin had his sham referendum in his back pocket he had the russian navy blockade fishing boats from Mariupol from exiting the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea. Even though these fishing boats were in Ukranian / international waters Putin's brave sailors would stop and board them and deliver the usual "it's a nice boat you've got here, it would be a shame if anything was to happen to it".

    As many other posters have also pointed out, the whole of Crimean was 99.99% Tatar until Soviet times when they were 'peacefully relocated' to Siberia. So the current Russian population (who are really only a majority by virtue of the recent invasion) are free to use the Kerch bridge to move back to Russia at their leisure.

    The Ukrainians have stated that they they have no intention of blowing the bridge as they wish the Russians civilians to use this to move back home (they haven't stated if they then plan to blow it up afterwards). 💣️💥



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,351 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I look forward to the day when Putin's reserves are so low that he tells the people manning his troll farms to make their way to the front line.

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    I wonder did the Chinese will on Putin to attack Ukraine expecting a weak defense from the west. This would confirm to them Taiwan would be slim pickings.. I don't belive China will try anything looking at Western training and gear in this conflict



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    All this talk of crimea's future is a bit premature anyway. There doesn't seem to be much evidence of Ukrainian advances since their offensive around Kharkiv. I am still worried that retaking Kherson will be carry a huge cost for Ukraine and they will still have to take Melitopol and start to cut Putin's land bridge to Crimea I don't see how they can have a chance of retaking Crimea this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    Can't imagine they want to go up against US hardware now they have seen it in action.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Today's podcast from the Economist covers this in what I'd describe in a fairly accurate and matter of fact way.

    Putin and Xi have a close personal relationship in so far as it can be discerned. Two revisionist and rather paranoid men who are on the same page about "the West" and with an axe to grind about the US in particular.

    But in the strata of officials below those two men is where the problems begin to start. The CCP and all its organs are deeply risk averse technocrats and view Russians as hotheads prone to international spazz-outs, of which Ukraine is but the latest episode. They also have a long institutional memory, and will not have forgotten the Sino-Soviet split which was utterly poisonous and could have degenerated into all out war.

    And above all things, both states are marked by deep and intracitble zero-sum self interest. They have nothing resembling the deep cultural, political and economic relationships that the US enjoys with the UK/Europe/Japan/Korea/SE Asia/Central & South America/Gulf States. They both believe (Putin and Xi) that the US' influence on world affairs is ill-gotten and is some sort of diplomatic black magic as opposed to consitent foreign policy carried out over generations.

    If they can somehow unpick the USA's role in world affairs, they believe their countries will magically become great and respected by default.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    16 - 23rd OSCE monitoring shows huge number of ceasefire violations. Yes Russia invaded but still no clear western interpretation of the huge increase of ceasefire violations. The Russian side say Ukraine wanted Russia to start the war so they could get Western backing and recover Eastern Ukraine.

    I've little insight into the Russian atrocities committed during this war as they have not been tried in court yet but they certainly have a record in Chechnya. However, the Ukrainians also have issues, they tried to tackle some rogue elements like tornado from 2014

    https://thegrayzone.com/2022/07/30/zelensky-militants-convicted-child-rape-torture-military/

    but released them to fight on the frontline.

    This war is presented as little Ukraine against big Russia when to me it is little Ukraine with lots of NATO support against Russia. It's tearing the world apart. Neither side seems good and the USA really appears to have next level hate for Russia. Not to mention the USA is allied with Saudi+ UAE against Yemen where 300,000+ have died and are do not appear like good guys globally IMHO. The USA, Saudi and UAE should be sanctioned too if we are to apply similar standards.

    Instead of treating this as star wars, diplomacy and ceasefire would be better options than perpetual war, global famine and potential nuclear holocaust IMHO.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    He has?

    Why would Ukraine even excercise themselves to hold a referendum in Crimea. Constitutionally its Ukraine, the UN General Assembly agrees its Ukraine, international law agrees its Ukraine, the laws of warfare agree its Ukraine - up until 2014 when Putin had an itchy hemorrhoid, even Russia agreed its Ukraine.

    Why on earth would Ukraine consult Russian carpetbaggers installed on the peninsula after a hybrid-warfare campaign; which included cleansing of obstreperous Tartars and Ukrainians and a sham referendum?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Worked for the Romans, Viking’s, Europeans in North America, Australia, New Zeland, Africa, Ireland for 700 years ,that’s what imperialists do



This discussion has been closed.
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