Russia - threadbanned users in OP

If/when Kherson falls, Russia may not have much of a choice but to withdraw. It is in Kherson Oblast, more precisely at the Nova Kahovka dam, that the North Crimean Canal, the primary source of fresh water for Crimea, branches off. The canal provides 85% of drinking water for the peninsula. If this were to fall back into Ukrainian hands, Crimea would be left high and dry, literally. Don't forget that much of the land area of Crimea, up to 75%, consists of steppe land that has only been made arable thanks to the canal. Only the southeastern part of the peninsula, the Crimean Mountains, produce significant amounts of their own drinking water, mostly in the form of rain runoff from the mountains.

As for international support for retaking Crimea, even that vacillating useless wet blanket called Olaf Scholz has on numerous occasions stated a return to pre-2014 borders is the only acceptable outcome of this conflict, and both the US and the UK have in the past gone on record in supporting this as well. I doubt that the latter two are going to go back on their word.

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It will be Ukraine who decides the future of Ukraine, not the west or Putin. And my money would be on they restoring it to where it rightfully belongs, in Ukraine. And as for it being "Red Line" for Rusia, so what???? How many lines have they crossed now? ( Red Blue, Black Yellow? )

The thing about Kherson and Crimea is that it makes sense for Ukraine to expand their counter offensive that direction in coming months. It would also be a huge setback to Russia if Crimea were to be retaken. That might eventually bring home to the wider Russian public, what a complete cock up their government has got them in. Bringing the war to major Russian cities would also do that but that's not going to happen.

Zakarpattia Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ivano-Frankivska Oblast, Volynska Oblast, Khmelnytska Oblast, Poltavska Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizka Oblast, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast, Zhytomyr, Zhytomyrska Oblast, Vinnytska Oblast(16:50). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

They're already being told Western forces are operating in Ukraine and that Belgorod is under constant attack. Will they care more about Crimea than Belgorod?

I'm not sure what the solution should be for Crimea myself but Russia can't be rewarded for taking it. If international peacekeepers could have been allowed in in 2014 we might have have more than a sham referendum.

I think an independent Donetsk and Crimea should be negotiated as part of a Russian withdrawal with an eye to a referendum in each after a few years when the dust has settled. At that point the options could be integrate with Ukraine, integrate with Russia or defer for another period. Even though Russia hasn't even managed to take over the complete Donetsk but it can be claimed that it's giving them Russia some of their initial goals of going into Ukraine in the first place. I don't know though. Just spitballing really.

Two loud explosions have been reported this afternoon in the southern part of the Russian-occupied Melitopol, a city in the Zaporizhzhia oblast, Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov said on Telegram. He did not elaborate on the explosions, but hinted at “losses of the enemy”.

There's 140,000 Ukrainians that were bullied out of Crimea and their homes taken that might disagree @[Deleted User] .

It's been a part of Ukraine since the 50's. Putin being allowed by the world to take it in 2014 was a precurser in allowing the thought process to develop in Russian military minds for this current invasion.

Russia has enough of land and country as is to resettle any residents in Crimea that have an affinity with Putin's warmongering.

They're surely preparing for a climbdown?

I was listening to a podcast the other day and the host said that attacking Kherson region is similar to the USA attacking the pacific islands held by Japan during WW2. That's because in Kherson, the settlements are surrounded by vase expanses of flat fields where it is impossible to sneak up unseen. The Ukrainians therefore have to fight against defenders without any element of surprise in each village and town.

Sky were quite downbeat on Ukranian future options. They made the valid point that, while Ukraine has made some progress, there is now a huge amount of Russian troops in the Donbass, plus, the front line is now shorter, making it easier for Russia to defend. Ukraine better have the logistical support to keep driving on, or we are back to square 1.

How many Russian troops are still in the Donbass? 100,000? 50,000?

A shorter front line is shorter for both sides.

Well we know from that wounded Russian phone intercept that the Russian field hospitals are all full.

Ya don't want too short a front line when himars can still target depots!

So it would still be a 100 mile round trip for the Russians. Obviously less depending on how close Ukraine attack from.