Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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31-08-2022 08:38PM#1
Over the weekend into next week will certainly draw a line between Summer and Autumn, temperatures dropping back with some cool nights, plentiful rain, windy at times and thunderstorms a possibility with possible hail . The charts are still evolving, would definitely call it a complex area of LP with some short waves developing into smaller deeper areas of LP that could bring strong winds with sharper gradients and more pronounced fronts giving thunderstorm potential. The Jet is a factor being close or over Ireland at times .Upper low a lot colder then we have seen for a number of months and given that the seas are at their warmest a lot of instability in the atmosphere is possible giving some very heavy local rain potential. Could see some warnings over the weekend into next week.
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ECM has been showing some sort of a windy event early Sun morning for the last few runs but the last run has really upgraded it into a potent little system deepening as it crosses the country, for now through Munster mainly. For the last few runs it has been showing something but the other models havent developed anything of note for that timeframe although they do seem to show potential just off the East , in general the models are showing windy weather later Sun night into Monday in varying amounts but still uncertainty how strong. Great deal of uncertainty yet but it would seem Met Eireann are noting the ECM .
Met Eireann
SATURDAY NIGHT: While there is still some uncertainty about the extent of how windy it may get on Saturday night and Sunday, generally It looks like wet and blustery conditions will extend from the south across the country on Saturday night with some heavy falls of rain at times. Lowest temperatures of 8 to 13 degrees generally as fresh and gusty southeasterly winds veer southwesterly later. Although it should be noted that winds may be stronger locally.
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ECM more in line now with the other models keeping the strong winds more to the East of the country from early Sun, not too strong at this stage but models still have a bit to go to putting a finishing look on this.
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A general emphasis on the Eastern half of the country for the heaviest rainfall totals over the next 24hrs but could get some locally heavy rain anywhere if caught under a convective burst. The NE shows up as getting some high totals. Heaviest of the rain in the early hours of Sun morning possibly accompanied with embedded thunderstorms, in general adrier day Sunday until another band of heavy rain with potential thunderstorms moves up over the country Sun evening and into early Mon morning.
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Guidance is quite divided even at this stage to the timing and strength for winds today and overnight into Sunday, models giving the small system moving up through th country slightly different tracks and depth. Could get a bit blustery along the East today but into the early morning sees the strongest winds in the SE, E and Northern counties .
At this stage just a Gale sea warning along the SE. E, N, NE
Small Craft warning from Slyne Head to Belfast Lough to Dungarvan
East to southeast winds will reach force 6 or higher at times on Irish coasts from Slyne Head to Belfast Lough to Dungarvan.
Valid: 04:36 Saturday 03/09/2022 to 10:00 Sunday 04/09/2022
Issued: 04:36 Saturday 03/09/2022
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The LP system off the SW set to move closer to Ireland later Sun / Mon bringing in further bands of rain and potential thunderstorms, getting windy /blustery at times. Will see if that system spawned from the parent low develops into anything stronger or moves closer to land for Monday. In general quite unsettled.
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Danielle seems to be tracking in our direction, cant find the forecast path, is this a threat here?
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Wind continues to pick up here in Kerry, set to get blustery this evening and looks windy tomorrow, maybe a bit off warning level tomorrow but blustery nonetheless especially during the frontal passage. An idea of rainfall totals below, bit of a spread but looks like the SE getting a fair bit and along S counties being highlighted.
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Cool nights indeed Danno, pleasant enough days under the calm conditions. Looking good for the ploughing next week, could hold mostly dry until about Thursday. I'm going Tuesday and looking nice and mild maybe getting up around 18 or 19C, if there is rain it looks light or even drizzle and patchy and could well hold dry for many places, Id say I can leave the wellies at home 😀
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Rain looks set to arrive a bit earlier now Weds night and clear maybe by late afternoon for most on Thurs, possibly clearing the East early evening.
Looking heavy enough in places, bit of a spread in the models. Looks like some counties might get a yellow warning.
Getting windy from the S, SW on Weds along the coasts, quite mild getting up to 19C inland, wouldn't be surprised to see a 20C, bit breezy overland but nothing of note. Big veer in the wind when the front goes through from SW to NW on Thurs introducing some slightly cooler fresher temps by day getting up to the mid teens, still not bad in the South on Fri up to 17C or so, nights getting down to 7 or 8C for areas inland.
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So a drier day tomorrow with light winds, approaching LP well off our NW sending frontal rain bands with strong winds from late Thurs night/ early Friday morning clearing the East in the afternoon, some heavy rainfall expected by the models more so in the W and NW . Maybe some thunderstorm activity in the NW.
Temps Fri generally highs of 15 to 16C
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ECM bringing the disturbance passing off the South early Sun morning closer to land on the latest run and giving much higher rainfall totals on this run, more than the other models, just a bit breezy/ windy along the coasts for a short time, windier in a small region well off shore.
Not showing up on Met Eireanns forecast, a bit of an outlier or is it on to something. All gone through by 09.00 or 10.00 on this run??
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Well that run above from the ECM was certainly an outlier, only minor rainfall showing up for Southern counties overnight.
Overall a dry calm day for most tomorrow getting up to 15 or 16C and then on to Monday where it gets windy along Atlantic coasts and breezy to blustery in places overland into Tuesday. Rainfall totals building up in the W and NW with the W, NW under rainfall for much of Mon before bands of rain spread across the country from early Tues from W to E and later more rain spreading up from the SW /S into Weds.
Mild and humid for most Mon and Tues getting up to 18C or so in places before falling back on Weds.
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No shortage of wet and blustery weather this week, models quite closely bunched on accumulations up to Weds .Weds itself could produce thunderstorms as colder uppers move over the relatively warm seas and the country.
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Models showing an area of LP to deepen as it crosses Ireland early Weds, there is a huge spread on how deep it gets and how fast it deepens and models showing winds ranging from windy on coasts and blustery overland to very windy overland and even stormy on some coasts from the UKMO , too soon to know. Fast Jet a feature on Weds.
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Very cold snowy blast in Iceland today into tomorrow with big snowfall accumulations.
Mixed temperature days coming up for us with a couple of milder wet interludes.
Today Sun up to 15 or a bit of 16C locally
Mon in general 12 to 14C , bit milder far South, cold night to follow getting as low as 5 r 6C
Tues up to 14 or 15C
Weds up to 13 or 14C in general
Thurs starting cool at around 10 to 11C for the first half of the day but milder air spreading from the SW later and looks to reach 15 or 16C for a time in Munster
Fri 12 to 13C in general , milder along the S perhaps
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The disturbed weather pattern towards the end of the week coming a bit more into focus, just straddling 120hrs but will put in here as it looks like we could be getting wet and windy or very windy weather beginning to some extent on Thurs, peaking Friday and lasting into Saturday perhaps in some form, after that some very unsettled charts early following week but that is definitely best kept in the +120hr thread.
ECM, UKMO and ICON all showing windy to very windy day next Friday, ICON very strong but would go with the less strong ECM and UKMO for now, GFS more so windy on Saturday.
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Still plenty of chopping and changing going on for the end of the week, the main thing the charts are showing now is the lack of very strong winds, certainly not showing anything stormy near our coasts, windy yes along the coasts with gales and blustery inland at times but nothing exceptional for the time of year.
Still uncertainty about Saturday with the ECM out on its own showing strong winds in Northern counties but big ??? yet as the other models are all showing different set ups apart from ICON which has something similar to the ECM but not as developed .
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Two LP's over the weekend with frontal bands, one picking up the winds later Fri into Saturday looks windy along the coasts and blustery inland, Sunday into Monday by the ECM and UKMO looks looks quite windy on the coasts and windy overland but timing and strength not certain yet, but all the main models showing some strong winds at times.
Lots of showers of convective nature along coastal counties on Saturday and some should make there way inland a bit especially under a trough where they might become more organised , good sunny spells also, Thunderstorms could be widespread over the seas and coming close to the Western coasts and some moving inland perhaps, hail looks possible also. Will see if some activity forms over the Irish Sea on Sat afternoon.
Could be some heavier frontal rain later on Sunday accompanied by strong winds but with the way the models have been going recently will need to see how this develops.
Quite an unsettled weekend into Monday.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on7 -
Quite windy along the Munster coasts tomorrow and blustery inland with numerous showers but some sunny spells also. Big heavy showers convective in nature becoming blustery locally, some hail possible also and thunderstorm risk present., winds easing later in the night, cold overnight.
Sunday into Monday sees a LP system move up along the W coast of Ireland, deepening initially on approach and slowly filling off the W, models have been showing stronger winds now on the last few runs, ICON about an average of the models at this stage but UKMO much windier and latest 18Z ECM showing winds now stronger too, some warnings coming into effect it would seem. Heavy frontal rain up over the country on Sunday with possibly some thunderstorms embedded and following on after for a time. Variable winds on Sunday, initially strong SE to S and veering strong to v windy along the SW and W later Sunday into Monday morning , veering from the SW to W from early Mon and later to the NW in the N half of the country with showers in the NW but becoming drier for much of the country.
Possibly some rainfall warnings also on Sun into Mon especially as it is coupled with strong winds .
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Some very heavy rain showing up from later Tues through Weds, Thurs and Fri and beyond. Large area of LP to the S, SW sending in bands of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms, highest totals along the S , SW and SE but the S of the country getting a fair bit too in general. Breezy to blustery at times but nothing too strong showing up at the moment.
Early thunderstorm predictive charts show later Tues, early Weds and during Weds as potentially active especially along Southern coasts in the S of the country, one to watch.
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